Two 1-6 teams take to battle in Florida on Sunday as the rested Houston Texans visit the Jacksonville Jaguars who will be led by sixth-round rookie QB Jake Luton in Week 9.
Both teams are coming off the bye week but it’s Houston who is the 7-point favorites. The total opened at 51 and has dropped to 50.5 as of mid-week.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Texans vs Jaguars for Sunday, November 8 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview
Weather
It will be slightly windy at TIAA Bank Field with gusts up to 20 mph winds with cloudy skies, a 5 percent POP, and temperatures in the 80s. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Texans: Isaiah Coulter WR (Out), Kyle Emanuel LB (Out), Bradley Roby CB (Out).
Jaguars: Gardner Minshew II QB (Out), Dakota Allen LB (Out), Luq Barcoo CB (Out), Devine Ozigbo RB (Out), Aaron Lynch DE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Over is 4-0 in the Texans’ last four road games and 4-0 O/U on their last four games on grass. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Jaguars.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
One of our rules is to not take bad defensive teams at a touchdown or more. But what happens when the sixth-worst defense plays the worst defense?
The Jaguars have the worst defense per Football Outsiders and have lost six games in a row — five straight losses ATS. Jacksonville will also be starting a 2020 sixth-round rookie at QB in Jake Luton, but we don’t think the drop-off from Gardner Minshew to Luton is enough to abandon ship on the Jags.
These two teams played a month ago with the Texans winning 30-14 as 6.5-point favorites. Both offenses moved the ball easily with Jacksonville leaving plenty of points on the board with two missed field goals, two fumbles, and a turnover on downs.
We’re sticking to our rules and hoping that Luton has gotten up to speed with the team’s bye and can competently move the offense against a terrible Houston defense.
PREDICTION: Jacksonville +7 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Some notable Jaguars’ beat writers have predicted that the Jaguars will not be scared to air it out on Sunday. Luton is said to have a better arm than Minshew. Luton’s arm strength and lack of turnovers at the collegiate level (42 TDs to 11 INTs in 20 starts) may be a reason why the Jags have chosen him and not veteran backup Mike Glennon to take over.
The new Jags QB will get to show off his skill set against a Houston defense that gave up 77 points in the two games before the bye and owns the 28th DVOA defense per Football Outsiders.
Speaking of bad defenses, the Jaguars have the league’s worst defense, which gave up nearly 500 yards to the Texans just a month ago. Houston QB Deshaun Watson threw for a season-high 359 yards against the Jags in a game that had 846 total yards but a total of just 44 points.
If both of these teams keep that offensive pace up for a second round, this game has a better chance at the Over than it does the Under.
PREDICTION: Over 50.5 (-110)
Total Touchdowns Prop Pick
Houston and Jacksonville rank third and fourth in TDs allowed per game this season, and if you’re looking at the last three games, no two teams are allowing more TDs per contest. Houston is giving up 4.3 TDs per match, while the Jags aren’t far behind at 4.0 since Week 5.
Luton could come out gunning and is in charge of an offense that’s gaining more yards per play than Pittsburgh, Miami and Dallas. Watson has also been a passing machine this year and is averaging 299 yards passing per game, which is nearly 36 yards more than his career average.
Finally, no two other teams in the league are allowing more plays inside the red zone than the Jags and Texans this year, which could mean TDs for all on Sunday.
PREDICTION: Total touchdowns scored Over 5.5 (-113)
Texans vs Jaguars betting card
- Jacksonville +7 (-110)
- Over 50.5 (-110)
- Total touchdowns scored Over 5.5 (-113)
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