The Houston Texans close out their regular season with an AFC South showdown against the Tennessee Titans that won’t help their playoff standing but could give them momentum for the Wild Card round.
While it's unclear if Houston will rest key players, I expect DeMeco Ryans’ team to challenge this dreadful Tennessee team regardless of who’s on the field in my Texans vs. Titans predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, Jan. 5.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium in Tennessee, with the game airing on CBS.
Texans vs Titans prediction
Texans vs Titans spread prediction
The spread for this game has seen so much movement, likely because sportsbooks are unsure if the Texans will rest their starters. But even if players like CJ Stroud, Danielle Hunter, and Nico Collins don’t suit up, Houston should be in a position to challenge the Titans. Tennessee is playing a QB combo of Mason Rudolph and Will Levis as Brian Callahan uses this matchup as an evaluation.
However, if Stroud doesn’t play, are we sure Houston still doesn’t have the better QB situation with Davis Mills? Mills is a competent backup, while Levis and Rudolph rank outside the top 23 in EPA per play among QBs this season who have played 100-plus snaps.
Texans vs Titans moneyline prediction
Not only can Houston cover as a 1.5-point underdog, it should be able to pull off the “upset” against their rivals. With the Texans struggling down the stretch, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Ryans would rather use this game to get his starting lineup in the right head space ahead of the playoffs.
But even if that’s not the case, Tennessee’s defense is going to struggle to stop Mills. It’s just 23rd in EPA per play this season. And if Levis/Rudolph can’t score, and there’s no evidence they can, how are they supposed to win?
Texans vs Titans total prediction
Levis is among the worst QBs in the NFL - he’s 42nd in EPA per play among QBs with 100-plus snaps - and the fact that he’s supposedly going to play is mind-boggling. Obviously Rudolph has been better, but he’s also had eight turnover-worthy plays in his last six games, per PFF.
Houston on the other hand has one of the best defenses in the NFL - No. 6 in EPA per play - and even without its top players it’s capable of slowing that horrific QB combo. And the Texans offense has been disappointing this season, so I wouldn’t expect them to light up the scoreboard with Stroud or Mills.
My best bet
Calvin Ridley Over 62.5 receiving yards (-125 at BetMGM)
My analysis
One player who could shine for the Tennessee Titans is Calvin Ridley. After an ugly start to the season that included three straight games with fewer than 10 receiving yards, he’s snapped back in since Week 8.
Over his last 10 games, Ridley is averaging 75.8 receiving yards per game and is now just 59 yards away from cracking 1,000 on the season. The Houston Texans' defense is among the best, but Derek Stingley Jr. could be among the players who sit out to prepare for the playoffs.
Even if Stingley plays, the Titans know Ridley is their best shot at explosive plays in the passing game - he’s had five-plus targets in 12 straight games. He leads the team in yards per route run (1.79) and contested catches (11) on top of targets (108), receptions (61), and yards (941).
Ridley has already topped 62.5 receiving yards once this season against Houston, with 93 yards on five receptions in Week 12. He’ll be positioned to do it again on Sunday.
Texans vs Titans same-game parlay
Calvin Ridley Over 62.5 receiving yards
Texans ML
Under 37
The Titans winning this game, even if a few Texans backups play, is too big an ask, and this is too good a value to back Houston at even money. Houston lost the first time around, but that was with Titans quarterback Will Levis turning in one of the best games of his career.
Since then, he’s become unplayable, and Houston is poised for a bounce-back game after playing two of the best teams in the NFL (Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs). The Texans’ defense will be the biggest factor in this Under hitting, with Houston having the best Under record in the NFL (11-5).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
New Users
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only. Also, see our full list of BetMGM bonus codes.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Texans vs Titans odds
Texans vs Titans live odds
Texans vs Titans opening odds
- Spread: Houston +4 (-110) | Tennessee -4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Houston (+180) | Tennessee (-225)
- Over/Under: Over 36 (-110) | Under 36 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Texans vs Titans spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Titans opened as a 4 to 4.5-point favorite but the line has seen wild movement with the game moving to a pick’em before the Texans became the favorites and eventually it moved back Tennessee’s way with most books offering Callahan’s team -1.
- While the Texans are just 6-8-2 ATS this season, the Titans are the worst team ATS in the NFL at 2-14.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 36 and hasn’t risen much with most books now sitting between 37 and 37.5.
- Tennessee is among the better Over bets this season at 9-6-1, but Houston is the worst Over bet in the league at 5-11.
- According to Covers Consensus, 66% of spread picks are laying the points with Houston, while total picks are split 50/50.
Texans vs Titans betting trend to know
The Houston Texans have only hit the game total Over in six of their last 22 games (-9.50 Units / -39% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Titans.
Texans vs Titans game info
| Location: | Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Sunday, 1-5, 2025 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Texans vs Titans latest injuries
Texans vs Titans weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
