Titans vs Colts Week 4 Picks and Predictions: Defense Will Win Out For Indy

The two AFC South teams that have dominated the division for the past two seasons meet for the first time this year, when the Tennessee Titans travel to take on the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon.

It has been a disappointing start to the 2022 season for both clubs, but the winner will make it two consecutive victories that could spark a nice turnaround for themselves. 

Will the Colts end their losing streak to the Titans? Find out in our free NFL betting picks and predictions for the Titans vs. Colts on Sunday, October 2.

Titans vs Colts best odds

Titans vs Colts picks and predictions

The Colts looked dead in the water after taking an embarrassing 24-0 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. This, too, came after tying a bad Houston Texans team in Week 1.

However, they bounced back in a major way at home last week when they defeated the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Most Colts fans would have expected to be 2-1 at this point, so a 1-1-1 record is not terrible, but certainly not the way many envisioned it.

Luckily for Indy, All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard is expected to make his season debut on Sunday against the Titans. Since Leonard’s rookie season in 2018, the Colts have allowed 24.2 points per game in the 10 games he has missed and 21.8 points per game in his 61 career games played. Three points per game is a massive difference over that large of a sample size.

Leonard is also a turnover machine. In 2021, he tied for the team lead with four interceptions and had eight forced fumbles, which was only two less than the rest of the team combined.

Meanwhile, the Titans have struggled to find their footing on offense to kick start their season. They are averaging only 17.0 points per game, which ranks 22nd in the NFL. Tennessee also ranks 26th in total yards and 26th in giveaways, as the offense has turned the ball over six times.

To make matters worse, Pro Bowl tackle Taylor Lewan is out for the year due to injury. With the trade of wideout A.J. Brown in the offseason, the Titans have counted on newcomers Robert Woods and Treylon Burks to step up in his absence. The connection does not seem to be there quite yet with quarterback Ryan Tannehill, as Woods has only caught nine of his 16 targets, and Burks is coming off just a one-catch performance in Week 3.

Star running back Derrick Henry has not been his usual self, averaging only 3.6 yards per carry, compared to his career average of 4.8. Even without the presence of Leonard, the Colts have boasted the best run-defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per carry (2.6 per attempt). 

With the likely return of Leonard and the strong mismatch the Colts' defense holds against this Titans offense, my best bet is hitting the Under on the Titans team total.

My best bet: Titans team total Under 19.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

Titans vs Colts spread analysis

As much as I love the Colts' defense, the offense has struggled mightily this season. They are dead last in the NFL, averaging just 13.3 points per game. Matt Ryan already has thrown four interceptions and has fumbled the ball an astounding seven times. The veteran QB must quit turning the ball over for the Colts to have any success going forward. 

One thing the Colts have done is limit their touches to Jonathan Taylor. Last year's rushing leader has only 30 carries in the past two games combined, following seeing 31 rushes in Week 1. This would be a good week to let Taylor loose, as the Titans rank 29th in the NFL in rushing defense (145.0 yards per game.

Taylor averaged 4.7 yards per carry against the Titans last season. Indy will also have a healthy Michael Pittman Jr., which is clearly going to be very important this season. In the two games that the receiver has played, the Colts scored 20 points both times. Without Pittman in Week 2, the Colts were shut out. 

The Colts No. 1 target has averaged 6.3 catches for 70.8 yards per game in his four career games against Tennessee. He'll have a chance for a breakout game as the Titans may be without three defensive starters on Sunday and have allowed at least 21 points to each of their three opponents thus far.

Since I am confident in the Titans failing to reach 20 points, I would point towards backing the Colts on the spread as slight favorites. 

Titans vs Colts Over/Under analysis

This total is currently set at 43.0, and there are lots of factors to support both the Over and the Under. 

All three games the Colts have played in have hit the Under, but two of the three Titans games have gone Over the total. The Over is 8-1-1 in the Titan's last 10 games in the month of October. However, the Under is 8-0 in the Colts' last eight games overall.

The Over is also 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams, which basically makes these trends throwaways. I feel strongly that the Titans will have a low-scoring game and will be forced the throw the ball to move the chains. I am counting on the Titans to find themselves finishing around 14-17 points offensively. 

This means that the Colts would need to score around 27-30 to hit the Over. That seems a bit high, so I would slightly lean towards the Under in this case. 

Titans vs Colts betting trend to know

The favorite is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings between these two teams. Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. Colts.

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