Titans vs Commanders Week 5 Picks and Predictions: Underwhelming Sunday Showdown

After a very concerning 0-2 start that included a loss to the Giants and a 41-7 beatdown via the Bills, the Titans have strung together two straight wins to bring themselves back to .500 and keep them in the mix for the AFC South.

In Week 5, they travel to Washington to face the 1-3 Commanders, who have had the opposite outcome. Following an impressive (in hindsight) win over the Jaguars in Week 1, the Commanders have strung together three ugly losses, getting outscored 85 to 45 in the process.

Can Washington turn its luck around and snap its losing streak? Find out with our Titans vs. Commanders NFL picks and predictions for Sunday, October 9.

Titans vs Commanders best odds

Titans vs Commanders picks and predictions

To the surprise of mostly no one, the Carson Wentz experiment in Washington has gone south rather quickly. Through four weeks he ranks second in sacks, third in interceptions, and eighth-worst in completion percentage while managing the fourth-lowest yards per attempt (min: four starts).

Those types of numbers have yielded just 45 points in the last three games, leading to a -40 point differential and an unsurprising three-game losing streak. And all this comes while the rest of the NFC East has had its fair share of success, whether it's the undefeated Eagles or the unexpected 3-1 Cowboys and Giants.

And while Wentz has been horrific through the first four weeks, the defense deserves some blame as well. It ranks 24th in overall DVOA which has largely been anchored by its 30th-ranked pass defense. To the Commanders’ credit, they’ve fielded the sixth-ranked rush defense which (should) in theory help prevent games from getting out of reach, yet again they have surrendered a 40-point differential in the last three games.

Most of that is due to the plethora of turnovers, with the Commanders ranking seventh-worst in total turnovers and second-worst in turnover differential. And coughing up the ball so frequently has led to opposing offenses starting on the fourth-friendliest average starting field position across the league. 

And on the flip side, because the Commanders' defense has zero takeaways through the first four games their offense has started on the third-worst average starting field position. On defense, Tennessee has been slightly better, but nothing to write home about. Overall, the Titans rank 21st in defensive DVOA which includes a 26th-ranked pass defense and eighth-ranked rush defense.

But this game projects to be a slog, as both teams love to take their sweet time. Washington ranks 27th in seconds per play in neutral situations and Tennessee ranks an even worse 31st. If the Commanders’ sixth-ranked rush defense can keep Derrick Henry at bay, then the Titans' passing attack with Treylon Burks sidelined is unlikely to generate much offense either. And with Carson Wentz looking like Carson Wentz, there isn't much confidence there in terms of scoring potential.

My best bet: Under 43.0 (-110 at DraftKings)

Titans vs Commanders spread analysis

In an ugly game like this matchup projects to be, it intuitively makes sense to back the home team catching points. But this matchup might be an exception, as the Titans possess the better coach, better quarterback, and better defense.

Sure, the Commanders may have a very clear advantage in terms of pass-catchers (Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Logan Thomas, Antonio Gibson, etc) but what good is that edge when you have Wentz in charge of getting those players involved?

And while Treylon Burks absence is surely a hit on Tennessee's side, it does have some talent more than capable to fill that void. Longtime veteran Robert Woods is always a threat to rack up catches and rookie Kyle Phillips is finally sporting a clean bill of health for Week 5 after generating a lot of buzz during camp and the preseason. Dontrell Hilliard has also been a threat at times as a pass-catching back.

Titans vs Commanders Over/Under analysis

As mentioned previously, the Titans are expected to lean heavily on Derrick Henry as they usually do (they rank 26th in pass rate) and that may lead to a lot of stalled out drives given Washington's proficiency thus far against the run.

Both teams have shown a track record of playing towards the Under as well, having gone a combined 20-15 that way last season. Washington also went 10-6-1 to the Under the year prior to that.

There isn't much here to suggest a shootout could break out, outside of both Wentz and Ryan Tannehill simultaneously having outlier performances against some poor passing defenses. But running that sentiment back through your head again should paint the exact type of picture that has you looking towards the Under.

Titans vs Commanders betting trend to know

The Commanders went 20-13-1 towards the Under across the 2020 and 2021 seasons. Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. Commanders.

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