Titans vs Jaguars Week 18 Props: Jags Run D Can't Stop Henry

The Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars face off in a win-or-go-home clash on Saturday. The victor will claim the AFC South title and a trip to the postseason while the loser hits the golf links.

With so much on the line for both sides, we know that players for both teams will be giving 100%, which doesn't always happen in the final week of the regular season.

That has me betting on big games from Trevor Lawrence and Derrick Henry while backing Tennessee's stout run defense with my best Titans vs. Jaguars NFL prop picks for January 7.

Titans vs Jaguars prop picks

• Etienne Under 68.5 rush yds (-114)
• Lawrence Over 265.5 pass yds (-114)
• Henry Over 90.5 rush yds (-113)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Titans vs Jaguars Week 18 props

Header

Jaguars running back Travis Etienne has been a beast lately, rushing for over 80 yards in three straight games. However, that streak began after a Week 14 matchup against the Titans where he was limited to 32 yards on 17 carries.

The Titans have been phenomenal against the run and are allowing just 71.6 rushing yards per game on 2.7 yards per carry over their last five games. It isn't like they've been facing chumps either since they shut down Austin Ekeler, Ezekiel Elliott, Etienne, and Philadelphia's dominant ground game during that span.

The Titans are first in the league in defensive rush EPA which makes them significantly better at defending against the run than the pass. Expect them to bottle up Etienne early, which will cause the Jags to air it with Lawrence instead.

Travis Etienne Prop: Under 66.5 rushing yards (-110)

Above the Law

Since I think Jacksonville is going to air it out, I'm making a Trevor Lawrence prop pick to eclipse his passing yards total. Lawrence has been limited in practice with a toe injury but with so much on the line, he'll definitely suit up and a lower-body injury shouldn't hinder his ability to throw the ball.

Lawrence threw for just 152 yards last week and had 229 yards in Week 16 but looking at the context of both games, it isn't anything to be concerned about. The Jags jumped out to a big lead early last week against the Texans and Lawrence barely played in the second half, while two weeks ago he faced messy weather at East Rutherford against a stingy Jets pass defense. 

He'll get clear skies in Jacksonville on Saturday as well as a much easier matchup versus Tennessee. The Titans rank 28th in the league in both defensive pass DVOA and dropback EPA. They were also shredded by Lawrence last month when he completed 30 of 42 passes for 368 yards and three scores.

Trevor Lawrence Prop: Over 265.5 passing yards (-114)

Henry the 18th

If the Titans want to pull off the upset as 6.5-point pups, they'll need a big game from Derrick Henry. King Henry is third in the league in rushing yards (1,429) and second in carries (319) and Tennessee will rely on him to carry the offense since Joshua Dobbs will be leading a pedestrian passing game. 

Yes, the Jags will likely stack the box against Henry because they won't respect Dobbs, but defenses have known what to expect from the Titans for years and still can't stop Henry from rumbling. In fact, Henry has a history of running all over the Jaguars and has rushed for over 120 yards in the last three meetings — including Week 14 when he had 121 yards on 17 carries. 

Henry sat out in Week 17 due to a hip injury but he should be well-rested for Saturday. While the 6.5-point spread suggests an easy victory for the Jaguars, I'm expecting a close game which should mean plenty of carries and yards for Tennessee's bell-cow running back. 

Derrick Henry Prop: Over 90.5 rushing yards (-113)

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