Titans vs Packers TNF Prop Bets: Pound the Ground at Lambeau

The Green Bay Packers will look to build off of their stunning Week 10 victory over the Cowboys and their combination of deep targets and heavy run game will be put to the test vs. the Tennessee Titans’ elite defense. With a projected slow pace of play, heavy-volume passing numbers from either side shouldn't be expected.

Here are my free NFL prop picks — to go along with our free NFL picks and predictions — for Titans vs. Packers for Thursday Night Football.

Titans vs Packers props

• Rodgers Under 22.5 completions (+100)
• Rodgers Over 36.5 yards longest completion (-110)
• Dillon Over 33.5 rushing yards (-110)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Titans vs Packers TNF props

Pace projecting

Thursday is going to be one slow game. No team is slower (seconds/play) than the Titans, who also bleed the clock with the league’s third-highest run rate. Derrick Henry’s rushing total is seven yards higher than his season average (closing line) so there isn’t much value in taking his Over despite an expected heavy workload. This slow pace (Green Bay ranks 30th) could certainly cut into Aaron Rodgers’ time of possession and ultimately his passing volume.

Rodgers threw for three touchdowns last week but still only attempted 20 total passes. He hasn’t thrown for 300 yards all season and faces a legit Top-10 defense. He’ll likely be without Romeo Doubs (DNP practice Tuesday) and his new favorite target, Christian Watson, is more of a deep threat that can keep this Tennessee defense honest. 

Green Bay has also upped its rushing game over its last three games and has moved from a team that was passing at a 60% clip to a more even 50/50 rate of late with Aaron Jones healthy and dominating. 

Rodgers and the Packers also struggle with drops and Allen Lazard was a non-factor as he was dealing with a shoulder injury.

The Titans also don’t allow opposing offenses to move the ball and have the league’s best third-down defense at 27.9% — nearly five percent better than the next-best team.

It will be tough for Rodgers to stack completions Thursday night vs. a tough defense and slow pace of play projected. THE BLITZ is projecting just over 20 completions. 

Aaron Rodgers Prop: Under 22.5 completions (+100)

Stretching the field

It might seem contradictory to hit a Green Bay receiver prop after laying out the Rodgers Under completion play, but Watson received plenty of downfield looks last week and ESPN's Dan Graziano is reporting that the rookie field stretcher will continue to have a big role in the offense after a huge Week 10.

Watson had three TDs last week and could have had a bigger day but a drop and some uncatchable passes hurt him. He had two grabs over 30 yards and finished the game with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 20.5 yards. 

The #Titans are 32nd defending the deep ball by DVOA it just hasn’t mattered much this year because teams can’t get to it.

Titans have been either the best or one of the best teams creating pressure (depending who is charting it).

Christian Watson, hello pic.twitter.com/PqUnadHhgO

— Peter Bukowski (@Peter_Bukowski) November 16, 2022

If Rodgers wants to keep the Titans defense honest and decrease the bodies in the box for the rushing game, he’ll have to take his shots downfield again this week and that is now Watson’s role — overpassing Lazard. 

With Doubs not practicing, books aren’t giving us a longest reception prop on Watson, but it’s a number I’m going to hit at 25.5 yards or shorter. If bettors are looking to get their bets in early, Rodgers’ Over 36.5 yards longest completion is a good compliment. 

It’s a number he has surpassed in three straight and he’s had a 35-yard completion in seven of his last nine games. I’d prefer Watson’s lower number but with Green Bay finding success with the deep shots, I don’t mind the Over on Rodgers either. He ranks 13th in deep-ball completion percentage but drops and issues with rookie receivers are making this number look worse. This is also a game bettors can look at milestone longest completion markets for Watson when they open. 

 Aaron Rodgers Prop: Over 36.5 yards longest completion (-110)

Any Dillon Thursday

AJ Dillon has seen at least 10 carries in three straight weeks and with the quick turnaround, he could a bigger role on Thursday night.

Jones has been the lead back but Dillon is still averaging 4.4 yards per carry over the last four weeks and has been the tougher back to take down over that stretch with 2.2 yards after contact compared to Jones’ 1.8.

His rushing total sits at 33.5 yards, which he's topped in three straight. He's had at least 32 rushing yards in all but one of his games this year, as well. His floor is incredibly safe even vs. a good rush defense in Tennessee.

RT @CoryCurtis2: vrabel expects a healthy dose of the Packers run game. AJ Dillon is a 250 pound back on a short week, that is worth watching in the second half. pic.twitter.com/DJE9i2bMVd

— Kenley Hargett (@kenleyontv) November 15, 2022

The lack of a passing game from the Titans should also keep this game script neutral, which should favor the run for the Packers. 

With Jones’ heaviest workload of the season coming last week (24 rushes), it wouldn’t surprise me to see Matt LaFleur run his bigger back more on Thursday night. Dillon has also been getting most of his work between the 20s of late which is much better for his rushing yards where there are more yards to gain vs. softer defenses. 

In Week 15 of the 2020 season, Dillon had his best game as a professional rushing 21 times for 124 yards and two scores vs. the Titans at Lambeau. 

AJ Dillon Prop: Over 33.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

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