Titans vs Packers Thursday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Jones Proves His Versatility

Thursday Night Football plays host to a non-conference clash when the Tennessee Titans visit the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field to kick off NFL Week 11.

Tennessee picked up a win at home in Week 10 and enters Thursday with a 6-1 straight-up mark in its last seven outings, going a perfect 7-0 ATS in that span. Green Bay snapped a five-game slide with a thrilling come-from-behind overtime victory last Sunday and gets to stay in Wisconsin for this short week, hoping that classic Lambeau weather can help give it the edge.

The forecast for Thursday night is calling for snow showers that will taper off in the evening, giving way to temperatures in the low 20s along with wind gusts up to 20 mph, making the “feels like” temperature sink to six degrees. 

I dig into the spread and Over/Under total for Thursday Night Football as well as give my best NFL betting picks and predictions for the Titans vs. Packers on November 17. Additionally, don't forget to check out our TNF player prop picks and Derrick Henry spotlight picks.

Titans vs Packers best odds

Titans vs Packers picks and predictions

The Packers' offense has been at its best when it gets its running backs involved, however, that could be a tough task given Tennessee ranks among the best run-stop units in the NFL. The Titans are No. 3 in EPA allowed per handoff and allow only 3.9 yards per carry to rival running backs — also third in the league.

But while Tennessee has slammed the door on the ground, it has shown a weakness through the air when it comes to pass-catching RBs. The Titans, who allow the second-fewest rushing yards to running backs, give up the third most receptions and the eighth-most receiving yards to the position entering Week 11.

Green Bay running back Aaron Jones has shown just as much pop as a pass catcher as he has on handoffs, entering Thursday night with 228 yards receiving. His receiving yards prop total for Week 11 is sitting at 22.5 yards — a bar Jones hasn’t cleared in three straight games. But I have faith he’ll top it against Tennessee.

So, what gives?

Well, for one, we mentioned the Titans’ stingy run stop, which is the best ground defense Green Bay has played since Washington in Week 7. Jones was used heavily on handoffs vs. the likes of Dallas, Buffalo, and Detroit the past three outings and only got targeted a total of nine times for eight grabs in those games.

Against the Commanders, who sit right there with Tennessee in stuffing the run, Jones was targeted 10 times in the passing game for nine grabs and 53 yards while only getting eight carries. Washington’s defense is very much built like Tennessee, especially the front seven.

The Titans do a great job of forcing teams into third-down spots and boast the stingiest third-down conversion rate allowed in the land at 27.87%. Tennessee has a front four that can get pressure without blitzing (25% pressure rate ranks fifth while bringing extra rushers on less than 16% of dropbacks) which is vital on those key third downs.

Jones is the preferred back in third-down sets for Matt LaFleur, due to his better rushing production in short-yardage situations as well as versatility in the passing game, as he can come out of the backfield or line up as a slot receiver. On top of that, he can also be a pressure release on any down when the Titans' pass rush gets after Aaron Rodgers.

And if LaFleur can’t gain traction with Jones on the ground, he has to find a way to get his best offensive weapon into the mix with the short passing game, which has worked out for the Titans’ past opponents.

Rival running backs have put together respectable days against that Tennessee defense in recent weeks, with Broncos RB Melvin Gordon getting four catches for 46 yards Sunday, Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon posting 40 yards on six receptions, both Colts RB Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines (now Buffalo) combining for 68 yards through the air, and Commanders RB J.D. McKissic catching five passes for 37 yards against the Titans.

My best bet: Aaron Jones Over 22.5 receiving yards (-110)

Titans vs Packers spread analysis

The look-ahead line for this non-conference game was sitting at Green Bay -1.5 before the events of Week 10. After the Titans squeaked out an ugly win over Denver and the Packers’ rallied vs. Dallas, books reopened the official Week 11 spread at Green Bay -2.5. 

That spread made the move to a field goal with early play on the Packers, who put up their best offensive performance of the season against the Cowboys last Sunday. Green Bay not only snapped a five-game losing skid, but eclipsed 22 points for the first time since Week 4. 

Tennessee’s offense has also struggled to score and hasn’t posted more than 21 points in each of its last five outings. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is battling a bum ankle and the passing game ranks 27th in EPA per dropback during that span. Luckily, the Titans have a default setting to RB Derrick Henry, who has rumbled for 731 yards rushing in the past six games.

While the Titans have a much better record than the Cheeseheads, the market isn’t really respecting those wins or the team’s current streak. Tennessee has taken recent Ws against the likes of Denver, Houston, Washington, Las Vegas, and Indianapolis twice — none of which are better than .500 and boast a combined 15-30-2 SU mark on the year.

As of Tuesday, the market consensus is a field goal spread, with Covers Consensus showing 64% of early selections laying the short favorite at home in the cold. 

Titans vs Packers Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under number opened at 41 points on Sunday night, and we’ve seen slight movement to 41.5 and 42 points at some books.

As mentioned, neither offense has been firing on all cylinders and the Packers have a laundry list of ailments on the depth chart for this mid-week matchup, including a number of starting offensive linemen tabbed as questionable for Week 11. 

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers continues to manage an injured thumb, while RB Aaron Jones deals with ankle and shin injuries, along with WRs Allen Lazard and Christian Watson showing up as limited participants in practice Monday.

Titans' QB Ryan Tannehill is listed as questionable as he continues to play on an injured ankle, and his protection is also banged up with a couple of starters showing up as questionable on the early injury reports. 

Both offenses rank out among the more plodding in the NFL. Tennessee sits dead last in seconds per play at Football Outsiders (31.58 sec/play) while Green Bay ranks fourth-slowest in that stat (29.78). In terms of points per play, the Titans are 23rd (0.329) while the Packers sit 25th (0.294). 

These coaches know each other pretty well, as Packers head coach Matt LaFleur was an offensive coordinator under Titans' head coach Mike Vrabel in his first season in Tennessee back in 2018. LaFleur spent only one year with the Titans before getting the big job in Green Bay.

Green Bay is 4-6 O/U on the season while Tennessee owns a 2-7 O/U count — tied for the second best Under bet in football. 

Thursday’s cold weather should make the on-field climate very uncomfortable for both teams, but it will be the winds that really impact the action. The current forecast is calling for gusts up to 20 mph, which could make kicking and longer passes a challenge.

Titans vs Packers betting trend to know

Under Mike Vrabel (since 2018), the Titans are 14-5 SU and 11-8 ATS vs. NFC opposition, including going 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in road non-conference games in that span. Tennessee is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in road games with NFC foes the past two seasons. Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. Packers.

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