The NFL betting board in Week 17 has a handful of games that matter to the playoff picture, including an AFC South battle between the Tennesse Titans and the Houston Texans.
The Titans control their destiny and a win as 7.5-point favorites against the struggling Texans would guarantee their spot in the postseason.
We break down the NFL odds with our best free Titans vs. Texans picks and predictions for Sunday, January 3, with kickoff at 4:25 p.m. ET.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans Betting Preview
Weather
This game will be played indoors at NRG Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions for other Week 17 games with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Titans: Jayon Brown LB (Out), Jadeveon Clowney DE (Out), Stephen Gostkowski K (Out).
Texans: Duke Johnson RB (Out), Laremy Tunsil T (Out), Phillip Gaines CB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Texans are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. Texans.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Titans come into this game smarting off a 40-14 beatdown against the Packers last week. They'll look to book their ticket to the playoffs with a win against the 4-11 Texans, who have lost four games in a row.
The Titans have taken care of business against bad teams all year, going 5-2-1 ATS in their previous eight games against teams with a losing record. They also tend to bounce back from poor performances, going 4-1 ATS in their last five contests following an ATS or SU loss.
The Texans have been one of the worst teams in the NFL at defending against the run all season and recent injuries to starting defensive linemen P.J. Hall and Brandon Dunn, and their best tackling defensive back in Justin Reid, have made them even more vulnerable.
Houston is allowing a league-worst 5.0 yards per carry while surrendering the second-most rushing yards per game at 151.7. That's bad news against a Titans attack featuring the league's leading rusher in Derrick Henry. King Henry has rumbled for 1,777 yards and 15 touchdowns while the Titans as a team average 160.1 rushing yards per game.
With the Texans just 3-8 ATS in their previous 11 contests as underdogs, look for the Titans to run all over them and cover this spread.
PREDICTION: Tennessee -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Titans have been a very strong Over bet since last year, going 21-6-1 O/U in their previous 28 games. They've also gone 5-1 to the Over in their last six contests on the road.
That said, the Texans have been a terrific Under bet, going below the total in five straight games as an underdog. So which way are we leaning on Sunday?
With both teams ranking near the bottom of the league in defensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders (Tennessee 29th and Houston 30th), we're leaning towards the Over.
After all, when these AFC South rivals tangled earlier this season, they combined for a whopping 1,019 yards and 78 points in a 42-36 overtime win for the Titans. Take the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 56 (-110)
Prop Pick
With so many players currently listed on the injury reports for both teams one move that has flown under the radar was Titans kicker Stephen Gostkowski being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list.
Tennessee will replace Gostkowski with rookie Sam Sloman fresh off the practice squad. However, with an offense that is second in the league in red-zone touchdown scoring percentage don't expect the Titans to use Sloman unless necessary.
Meanwhile, the Texans have veteran kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn, who has connected on 23 field goals this season—including 16 at home. Houston also has an offense that ranks just 23rd in the league in the red zone. Look for Houston to kick for the goalposts early and back them as the team to connect on the first field goal of the game.
PREDICTION: Team to have first field goal - Houston (-108)
Titans vs Texans Betting Card
- Tennessee -7.5 (-110)
- Over 56 (-110)
- Team to have first field goal - Houston (-108)
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