The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints will meet for the final time this season on Monday Night Football at Raymond James Stadium as the curtain comes down on Week 13.
The NFC South is still very much up for grabs heading into this tilt, and the performance Tom Brady puts in for Tampa could go a long way in determining if the Bucs will still be in first place on Tuesday morning.
With that in mind, here are my three favorite Tom Brady props for Monday, December 5. Be sure to also check out Josh Inglis' three favorite MNF player prop bets as well as Jason Logan's MNF full-game betting preview!
Tom Brady MNF prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Tom Brady MNF props
Brady subdued
The line on Tom Brady’s passing yardage for Monday Night Football seems way too high at 273.5, setting up a strong opportunity for Under bettors.
Brady has gone below that number in each of his last two games, and seven of 11 contests in his age-45 season. Father Time has clearly caught up with Brady, who went below this passing yards line in only six games all of last season.
The Saints are no slouches when it comes to preventing the pass, as they rank eighth in the NFL in yards allowed per game through the air (197.3). They limited Brady to just 190 passing yards when these teams met in Week 2.
This unit could get a boost if cornerback Marshon Lattimore (abdomen) is able to make his first appearance since Week 5. Even without the four-time Pro-Bowler, New Orleans has held opposing quarterbacks to no more than 189 yards in five of its last six overall.
Tampa would be wise to attack the soft Saints' run stoppers (22nd, 129.1 yards allowed per game) with Leonard Fournette, who is expected to suit up after practicing in full earlier this week despite a hip ailment. The Bucs’ ground game can be explosive at times, as they’ve rushed for 100 yards or more six times this season, including a 189-yard outing against the Browns in Week 12.
Brady is a bad bet to eclipse anything over 265 passing yards.
Prop: Under 273.5 passing yards (-120)
No bombs from Brady
Much like his overall passing line, Brady’s longest completion prop is set at a mark that’s far too optimistic.
Brady has failed to record a completion of 37 or more yards in three straight games, and nine of his last 11 overall. The 23-year-veteran is averaging only 6.5 yards per attempt this year — his lowest figure since 2002.
New Orleans’ relentless pass rush will make things difficult for Brady when he wants to air it out. The Saints have posted 33 sacks this season, eighth in the NFL. It should prevent Brady from getting comfortable in the pocket and allowing passing plays to develop.
Brady has been held to a longest completion of less than 37 yards in three of his last five meetings with the Saints as a member of the Buccaneers. It feels like another one is coming for Brady, whose age is beginning to show more and more as the season progresses.
Prop: Longest completion Under 36.5 (-111)
Hard knock life
Brady has thrown only two interceptions for the Bucs in 2022, but the tradeoff has been a severe lack of passing scores. He’s been held to one touchdown in most of the games he’s played this season, and that trend should continue on Monday night. Getting ‘plus’ odds on this prop makes it all the more appealing.
Brady has thrown for two touchdowns in two straight games, but did so against some generous pass defenses in Cleveland and Seattle. The Michigan product threw for either one or zero touchdowns in eight of nine games prior to this current run of success. That includes the lone passing tally the Saints let up in Week 2.
At this point last season, Brady had already thrown for 30 touchdowns. It was a similar story in his first year as a Buccaneer, as he threw 25 touchdowns over his first 11 games. With only 14 thrown over 11 games in 2022, the Over on his passing scores hardly looks appealing on Monday night.
Prop: Under 1.5 passing touchdown passes (+102)
