The NFL’s Christmas Day triple-header comes to a close with a showdown on Sunday Night Football between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium.
This is obviously not the season 45-year-old Tom Brady had mapped out in training camp, but the Buccaneers still have the inside track to an NFC South title. Tampa Bay has been relying heavily on Brady’s arm, and this Christmas clash with the Cardinals should be no different.
Here are my three favorite Tom Brady props for December 25. Be sure to also check out Josh Inglis' SNF player props, as well as Jason Logan's full-game SNF betting preview!
Tom Brady MNF prop picks
- Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-137)
- Over 0.5 interceptions (+130)
- Longest pass completion Under 35.5 (-110)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Tom Brady MNF props
Two touchdowns for Tom
They don’t call him “Touchdown Tom” for nothing. Brady is the clear-cut leader in passing scores all-time with 644, 73 ahead of the retired Drew Brees, and 172 ahead of Aaron Rodgers, who is second among active players. Even though Father Time has evidently caught up with the Bucs' signal caller, bettors should still expect him to toss multiple touchdowns on Sunday night.
Brady has thrown for 20 touchdowns over 14 games this season – hardly up to his lofty standards. However, the multiple touchdown games are beginning to pile up, as Brady has earned two or more passing scores in four of his last five contests. That includes his three-touchdown performance in defeat against the Bengals last week.
While plenty of NFL games will be played in miserable conditions in Week 16, Brady will be plying his trade in comfortable 65-degree weather if the roof at State Farm Stadium is even open. He’ll also be taking on a Cardinals defense that’s allowed 25 passing touchdowns, second-worst behind only the Chiefs (30) in 2022.
Prop: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-137)
Brady finds trouble
The Tampa rushing attack has been almost non-existent at times this year, as they’re last in the league by yards per game on the ground (74.3). Arizona sports a decent run defense, ranking 13th in rushing yards allowed per game (114.3), so the pressure would appear to be on Brady once again in terms of moving the chains. This fact should help “Tom Terrific” tack on the passing touchdowns, but it could also get him into trouble in the turnover department.
Brady’s recent rise in touchdowns has coincided with a rash of mistakes, as he’s tossed six interceptions in his last five games. The 23-year veteran comes into this contest with back-to-back games with two interceptions on his ledger against the 49ers and Bengals, respectively.
Brady has thrown no fewer than 43 times in each of his last four games, notching a season-high 55 passes against San Francisco in Week 14. That occurred one week after he set his previous season-high with 54 throws against the Saints.
The Cardinals are a modest 19th in quarterback sacks this year (31), but they excel at generating pressure on opposing passers nonetheless. J.J. Watt and Co. rank fifth in hurry rate (8.6% of dropbacks), quarterback knockdown rate (11.2%), and pressure rate (24.4%). Arizona should bait Brady into at least one mistake on Sunday night.
Prop: Over 0.5 interceptions (+130)
Downfield doubt
Though Brady will likely drop back to throw early and often on Christmas Day (just like he has for most of this season), his ability to connect with his receivers on a big play remains suspect. Bettors shouldn’t count on a downfield bomb from Brady in this spot.
Brady hasn’t recorded a completion of more than 32 yards in six straight contests, and has only five completions of 35 or more yards all year. Mike Evans has been on the receiving end of three of those big plays, but the connection between him and Brady has been frayed in recent games. Since Evans hauled in a season-long 51-yard reception against the Ravens in Week 9, he’s caught just 25 of the 48 balls Brady has thrown his way (52.1%).
The Cards’ defense is tops in the NFL in terms of depth of average target (DADOT) at 5.8 yards. Combine this with their intimidating pass rush, and it’s easy to see Brady taking what he can get underneath instead of airing it out.
Prop: Longest pass completion Under 35.5 (-110)
