NFL Anytime TD Props & Best Bets for Week 10

TD Prop bet #1: Taysom Hill anytime touchdown

Best odds: +195 at bet365

I hated myself for not taking him last week, but I was happy to see the price for Week 10 was still good enough to buy. Taysom Hill finished last week with 60 total yards (19 rushing and 41 receiving), including a rushing score from the 7-yard line. He could be in line for another decent workload at home, indoors, and vs. the Falcons this week.

The New Orleans Saints are thin everywhere on offense. They are down WR1/WR2/WR3 and RB2 is questionable with RB3 on the IR. Hill can fill a lot of holes, including at quarterback.

Jamaal Williams has been limited to start the week after being limited all last week and eventually being ruled out. If he's ruled out again, Hill could shorten up to +120/+130 for a touchdown against a defense that's a favorable one — even for this Saints offense. 

The Saints are playing with a new coaching bump but the offensive plan should still be the same with Klint Kubiak still the OC. It's shaping up to be another 10-touch day for the Swiss Army knife. 

TD Prop bet #2: Drake Maye anytime touchdown

Best odds: +420 at FanDuel

Only Jayden Daniels has a higher scramble rate than rookie Drake Maye, who's tucking and running on 13% of his dropbacks. He's totaled 197 rushing yards over his last four games and ranks among the best rushing QBs in total rushing yards after four starts. I really expected this price to be around +200 vs. the Chicago Bears this week, but at more than +400, it's time to buy early.

Maye has one TD on the year but has better potential this week than Bo Nix, who's priced as short as +240. The New England Patriots running game is awful as Rhamondre Stevenson is averaging 2.2 yards per carry since returning to the lineup, and the O-line is not healthy, which is aiding in the scrambling rate. 

For a quarterback who almost rushed for 100 yards last week and faces a defense that gave up 6.1 yards per play to the Cards last week, this price is wild and worth a full unit. 

TD Prop bet #3: Tyrone Tracy anytime touchdown

Best odds: +105 at DraftKings

I'm going for the early game and taking the lead back in a run-first offense vs. the worst rush defense in football at +105. Tyrone Tracy is the lead back in the New York Giants backfield even with the return of Devin Singletary, Tracy took 69% of the snaps and had 17 opportunities compared to Singletary's seven. The rookie back also had all of the RB red-zone opportunities with three carries and a target. 

The Giants offense hates to pass the ball if it doesn't have to, as Daniel Jones finished with zero passing yards in the first half last week. They might actually play with a positive game script this week in Germany against the Carolina Panthers. No team allows more rushing TDs per game than Carolina at 1.7 per game and its EPA/rush ranks 31st on the season — only better than the Cowboys. 

It's not the best TD price in town, but in this matchup and his workload, I'd buy Tracy to -130.