It’s the final stretch of the holiday season and my resolution this year is to be up over 15 units with NFL player prop touchdown markets which, with Week 17’s odds, shouldn’t be a problem as I’m at +9.4 units heading into Sunday.
Coming off a two-TD week, I’m turning my betting sights on an incredible price for a 20-touch running back, betting a +500 revenge angle, and splitting a single unit up on a pair of New England pass-catchers in a match where the game script is key.
Here are my three best NFL picks exclusively for the anytime touchdown market.
Week 17 touchdown props
- Aaron Jones anytime TD (+170 at Caesars)
- DJ Chark anytime TD (+500 at DraftKings)
- Demario Douglas anytime TD (+450 at bet365 at 0.5u)
- Hunter Henry anytime TD (+400 at Caesars at 0.5u)
Picks made on December 29 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best NFL bonuses
All Users
No-sweat 3+ leg SGP every day
Bonus bets back if your wager doesn’t win! Claim Now
New Users
Up to $1,500 bonus bets back
If your first bet doesn’t win! Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Best Week 17 TD props
Prop bet #1: Rolling Jones
Aaron Jones took 22 touches for 135 total yards last week vs. the Panthers and although he didn’t find the end zone, he did have eight carries inside the 20 which were the second most last week behind Kyren Williams’ nine RZ carries.
That could be suppressing the running back’s TD price this week as it is as high as +170 and a play I’d take to +130.
Jones has been limited at practice this week but it mirrors his participation last week where he went into the weekend with no injury designation.
The Green Bay Packers are a slight road dog but should see plenty of neutral-to-positive game script Sunday night facing a fifth-round rookie QB making his first NFL start in Jaren Hall. There is very little chance Green Bay abandons Jones and the run game.
Last week, he accounted for 21 of the team’s 30 running back carries and 88% of the rushing yards. The receivers are still banged up with Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks not practicing early in the week so it could be another 20-plus touch day for Jones.
This is a wild price and a play that has my highest confidence of the week. The indoor setting is also a bonus.
Aaron Jones prop: Anytime touchdown (+170 at Caesars)
Prop bet #2: Chark it up to revenge
I love a good revenge angle, and when it's paying +500, I like it even more.
Carolina Panthers receiver DJ Chark will face his former club, the Jacksonville Jaguars, and is coming off a Two-TD performance last week where he had a team-high eight targets and led his team in air yards.
The Panthers run 3-WR sets at 90% so there are other bodies in this offense but Jonathan Mingo and Ihmir Smith-Marsette saw just two combined targets last week on 41 total routes.
Even more important last week was his role in the red zone. He saw the only two targets of all the pass-catchers inside the 20 and scored on them both from 10 and 11 yards out in the fourth quarter.
The Jaguars have been banged up in the secondary all year as starting corner Tyson Campbell and safety Andre Cisco have missed plenty of time and are still dealing with lingering injuries that have them questionable early in the week. It’s also a defense that is much better at stopping the run and is one of five teams allowing more than 1.0 TDs to opposing WRs on the season.
With plenty of angles here that are checking the boxes including some likely passing game script as a 6-point dog, I’m going 0.75 units on this at +500 and would play it to +330ish.
DJ Chark prop: Anytime touchdown (+500 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Game-script approved
Bailey Zappe is coming off a very good week where he led all quarterbacks in CPOE. He enters Week 17 as the biggest underdog on the slate at +14 and will be doing plenty of passing vs. the Buffalo Bills which is good news for Demario Douglas and his +450 TD chances.
The rookie receiver is back and healthy after missing Weeks 13 and 14. He led the team in air yards last week and was tied for the team-high in targets with eight — one in the red zone.
He has yet to catch an NFL TD but the game script is set up well for him and he leads the WR group in target share and air-yard share on the season. I’m dropping half a unit on this play and adding the other half to Hunter Henry.
Henry might night play which is fine and better for Douglas. But if he does after logging limited sessions this week, getting him at +400 is a deal considering his three TDs with Zappe in two games before the injury. If he doesn't play, the bet will be voided.
Ezekiel Elliott is dealing with an injury and Bill Belichick might need Zappe to throw the ball 35-plus times. The New England Patriots QB surprisingly has six TDs over his last three games.
Demario Douglas prop: Anytime touchdown (+450 at bet365 at 0.5u)
Hunter Henry prop: Anytime touchdown (+400 at Caesars at 0.5u)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
🕒Vermont: Sports betting is coming!🕒
Vermont sports betting will launch on January 11 — but you can pre-register now with FanDuel and DraftKings!
Check out the best Vermont sports betting apps (as more brands launch in the Green Mountain State), as well as the best Vermont sportsbook promos!
21+ and present in VT. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
