My Week 1 touchdown bets went 1-2 thanks to some shiny rookies that had my attention but never cashed. However, this week I'm looking at a trio of vets who are going to pad the pockets in Week 2.
I don't think the Panthers are going to stop anyone after losing their best defensive player, the Colts are going to continue to feed Jonathan Taylor, and the Chris Godwin TD positive regression season is in full swing.
Read more as I break down my favorite touchdown NFL picks for Week 2, and be sure to check out our first TD scorer prop picks.
Week 2 touchdown props
- Gus Edwards anytime TD (+175 at FanDuel)
- Jonathan Taylor anytime TD (+110 at bet365)
- Chris Godwin anytime TD (+255 at DraftKings)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 2 TD props
TD Prop bet #1: Gus Edwards anytime TD
Best odds: +175 at FanDuel
In what's likely the best matchup for a run-first team, Gus Edwards' odds are way too long here and should be in the +110 range for Sunday's tilt vs. the Carolina Panthers. Carolina just gave up 47 points to the Saints, including 30 in the first half. It also lost its best defensive lineman Derrick Brown, who led all DLs in total tackles in 2023.
The Los Angeles Chargers will do what they want in the trenches for the majority of the game.
So why Edwards and not J.K. Dobbins, who looked really good in his team debut? It's pretty simple: Give me the goal-line back at the better price every time. This offense is not gaining big yards up and down the field with the talent at receiver, and it'll be running the ball a lot inside the 20.
Edwards got three of the five carries inside the 20-yard line last week vs. the Raiders, and although Dobbins was the one with the RZ TD rush, I like Edwards' projected role in tight more at a price of +175 compared to +140 for Dobbins.
Honestly, both are decent TD plays, but Edwards did lead the team in carries and took three of his 11 inside the 20. That looks like the better RB to back at the better price.
TD Prop bet #2: Jonathan Taylor anytime TD
Best odds: +110 at bet365
Getting someone who had 100% of the RB carries in Week 1 at even money or better is incredible — especially on a squad with a team total of 21.5 points.
Jonathan Taylor didn't share the ball in Week 1, taking all 16 RB carries for 48 yards and a TD from the 5-yard line. Anthony Richardson can be a vulture, but Shane Steichen needs to protect his vulnerable QB this year.
The matchup is also great on paper for the visiting Indianapolis Colts, as the Packers are coming back from Brazil after giving up 144 yards on the ground along with a pair of rushing TDs. Starting DT Kenny Clarke was also limited at practice on Wednesday.
This game can go a couple of ways, and both favor Taylor running the ball: a close game, or Green Bay's Malik Willis falling on his face and the Colts playing with the lead.
When guys like Barkley are as short as -210 for a TD, getting Taylor at +110 is wild. Just like Joe Mixon last week, if Taylor scores again this week, expect this market to fall in the -140s for Week 3 vs. the Bears.
TD Prop bet #3: Chris Godwin anytime TD
Best odds: +255 at DraftKings
Let's target a receiver who led his team in targets (eight), yards (83), and receptions (eight) in Week 1, in a game with the week's highest total of 51.5 and in an indoor setting. Add in some +255 odds, and you can see why I'm high on Chris Godwin to score.
I know it was Mike Evans who found the endzone twice for the Bucs in Week 1, but Godwin — at this price — is the absolutely better deal.
Let's not forget Godwin snagged his own TD last week on a four-yard pass from Baker Mayfield. With the move to the slot and him now looking much healthier, the TD positive regression is coming. Godwin posted just five TDs over his previous two seasons, but that rate was unsustainable.
Matthew Stafford manhandled the Lions in the second half on Sunday, and their secondary enters this game beat up. Sarting safety Kerby Joseph exited practice on Wednesday with a hamstring injury, safety Ifeatu Melifonwu missed last week and was labelled DNP on Wednesday, and CB Emmanuel Moseley is out until Week 5.
Joseph is the significant one here but the depth is being tested if the starter misses Sunday's game. I'm a full unit on this, and it's a buy to +175 for me.
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