I hit two of my three Week 3 touchdown plays, which included a +500 Brenton Strange score and the gift of the season so far in a Lamar Jackson TD at +200. That moves me to +3.6 units through three weeks with a 4-5 SU mark.
This week I'll be fading the Washington secondary in a game that has shootout potential, jumping on the hot hand (and hopefully a change in usage) in Chicago, and taking a great price on a back that might have an even bigger role if his quarterback can't suit up.
Read more as I break down my favorite NFL picks for touchdowns in Week 4.
Week 4 touchdown picks
- Roschon Johnson anytime TD (+215 at Caesars)
- JK Dobbins anytime TD (+160 at bet365)
- Michael Wilson anytime TD (+260 at bet365)
Best Week 4 TD picks
TD Prop bet #1: Roschon Johnson anytime TD
Best odds: +215 at Caesars
Travis Homer is on the IR and D'Andre Swift has been a giant disappointment in the Chicago Bears offense, giving Roschon Johnson an opening.
Johnson is capitalizing on the opportunities given as he went from zero to 32 offensive snaps week-over-week, carried the ball eight times for 30 yards, and caught four of five targets for another 32 yards. Swift out-touched Johnson 17-13 but it was Johnson who was the more effective back as Swift managed just 20 yards on 13 carries.
Near the goal line, it was interesting. Johnson had one carry in the red zone on fourth-and-1 which he converted while Swift had one carry on fourth-and-goal on the one-yard line and somehow lost 14 yards. Third-stringer Khalil Herbert had a two-yard gain on first-and-goal on the four-yard line, a one-yard gain on the following play, and was stuffed on third-and-goal on the one-yard line before ceding the backfield to Swift, who lost yards.
ESPN Insider Jeremy Fowler also said, "watch for the Bears to give Johnson an extended look" this Sunday vs. the Los Angeles Rams, who rank dead-last in success rate vs. the run. It could be a massive game for Johnson if Chicago continues to move the ball and RJ gets more looks.
#dabears RB elusiveness ratings through 3 weeks:
— Adam Mason (@adamhmason) September 25, 2024
Roschon Johnson: 145.8
Khalil Herbert: 17.5
D'Andre Swift: 15.8
Completely makes sense why ESPN Insider Jeremy Fowler says the Bears plan on giving Roschon Johnson an “extended look” this Sunday against the Rams. pic.twitter.com/ZEQpq1NaFY
Johnson is paying +215 to score on Sunday, which I'm playing for a full unit and would play down to +165. If you're worried about the other guys in the backfield, Herbert is likely a decent handcuff as he is +550 to score.
TD Prop bet #2: JK Dobbins anytime TD
Best odds: +160 at bet365
The Justin Herbert injury is worrisome here but the Los Angeles Chargers quarterback was limited at practice on Wednesday and is one of the toughest players in the league. The injury seems to be priced in at +160 as this JK Dobbins' TD prop closed at +135 last week vs. an elite Pittsburgh defense and at +110 vs. Carolina the week before that.
#Chargers QB Justin Herbert told reporters there has been talk about resting him until the bye, but he "doesn’t think that’s the way we’re heading."
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 25, 2024
Herbert said he feels "less pain" and was able to do some 7-on-7 work today. A sign his setback didn't set him back much.
Dobbins is a player that is hard to pass up at this price even with a Taylor Heinicke start looming in the shadows. His touches in the backfield have grown every week as he finished Week 3 with 86% of the RB touches. Gus Edwards got just three carries last week and zero targets.
It's a better matchup than it looks at first glance, too.
The Kansas City Chiefs are heavy 7.5-point favorites as of Thursday, which is priced for Herbert missing the game. However, the Chargers are one of the run-heaviest teams in football and even if Heinicke gets the start, Dobbins will still be featured heavily and faces a rush defense that ranks 29th in success rate.
Dobbins will get opportunities to score and is a buy with no Herbert at +140 or better. Dobbins also got all the red-zone carries in Week 3.
There are O-line injuries (RT Joe Alt and LT Rashawn Slater) that are concerning, but Dobbins at this price and a potential 80-90% RB opportunity workload is still a yes for me.
It's a full unit early buy as I can't see it getting longer even if Herbert is ruled out.
TD Prop bet #3: Michael Wilson anytime TD
Best odds: +260 at bet365
There is nothing wrong with keying in on the highest total of the week for a good TD dive, and that's where I am on my last pick.
I gave a lot of thought to Brian Robinson at +105 due to the Arizona Cardinals' defensive issues and Austin Ekeler's concussion, but I'm looking for bigger odds vs. this terrible Washington Commanders pass defense that has given up nine passing TDs to open up the season across 11 total TDs allowed.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is just under the buypoint at +120 as I struggle to lay anything down on WRs at that price. I'll play RB's to -110 but I usually want +135/+140 or better on wideouts.
That leads me to Michael Wilson, who cashed a big ticket for me last week with a 65-yard performance on nine targets. His 50+ rec yards milestone was paying a lofty +320 last week but it's his TD at +260 that I want in Week 4.
Last week was the first time Arizona had to pass as they got up early vs. Buffalo in Week 1 and then led big early in Week 2 vs. the Rams. Wilson had a 27% target share last week vs. Detroit and had 100% route participation on 34 dropbacks. He also had a five-yard TD grab in Week 1, which shows he does have a red-zone role within this offense.
This is the list of receivers who have scored TDs vs. the Commanders this year: Mike Evans (+115), Chris Godwin (+175), Jalen McMillan (+400), Malik Nabers (+125), Wan'Dale Robinson (+370), Ja'Marr Chase (-110), and Andrei Iosivas (+280). There are a lot of WR2s in there. Let's get Wilson to be the next.
Not intended for use in MA.
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