Even when Travis Kelce’s numbers dipped in the last few weeks of the regular season, there was always a sense that he had a playoff gear in reserve — and he’s duly cranked up his production in the postseason to push the Chiefs to the brink of another Super Bowl trip.
The latest NFL odds expect Kelce to deliver more magic in Sunday’s AFC Championship, with the lines for his receptions and receiving yards props pointing to the kind of busy afternoon that might even overshadow Taylor Swift’s presence at M&T Bank Stadium.
Here, we take a closer look at the Travis Kelce odds for props markets in this weekend’s clash against a physical Baltimore Ravens defense.
Want more free NFL picks for this weekend? Check out our Chiefs vs. Ravens picks, as well as our AFC Championship prop picks and Patrick Mahomes player spotlight!
Travis Kelce AFC Championship prop picks
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Travis Kelce AFC Championship prop pick
Over 62.5 receiving yards
Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, and the postseason spotlight continue to be a deadly combination — and it’s tough to see the Chiefs punching their ticket to Super Bowl LVIII without their key men shining brightest.
It was fair to wonder how much Kelce had left in the tank after an underwhelming finish to the regular season where he served up just a combined 88 receiving yards across Weeks 15, 16 and 17.
But he’s silenced the doubters since the calendar flipped to January. Kelce has bounced back with 12 catches for 146 yards and two touchdowns so far in the playoffs, and his AFC Championship Game track record suggests he’s going to stay hot this weekend.
Kelce finished with 10 grabs for 95 yards and a touchdown on this stage in 2022 and seven catches for 78 yards and a score a year ago.
Sure, he’s taken plenty more hits since then, but his chemistry with Mahomes remains the Chiefs’ biggest weapon. Despite Baltimore’s top-tier pass defense, I still expect Kansas City to bring a pass-heavy mindset, so don’t be shocked if Kelce sees double-digit targets on Sunday.
With Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco doing enough to keep defenses honest, I see Kelce punishing the Ravens in the middle of the field here. After all, some of Baltimore’s few defensive weaknesses have shown up against tight ends — see George Kittle’s 126-yard effort in Week 16.
One thing is for sure: Mahomes is going to keep looking Kelce’s way when the game is on the line. “Mr. Swift” has gone past this receiving yards number in his past two outings, and I’m picking him to do so again this weekend.
Prop: Travis Kelce Over 62.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Travis Kelce AFC Championship same-game parlay
Travis Kelce Over 62.5 receiving yards
Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown
Chiefs +4.5
I’m grabbing a Pacheco prop for this SGP too. He’s been a monster for the Chiefs this season and — like Kelce — he’s found another gear in the postseason, despite nagging ankle and toe injuries.
He piled up 111 yards from scrimmage and a score against the Bills in the Divisional Round, and he’s going to be a touchdown threat again on Sunday. Pacheco has found the end zone in each of his past six games, and I expect more goal-line work for the 24-year-old against the Ravens, with his tough running taking some of the pressure off Mahomes.
Baltimore ended the regular season by allowing a touchdown to a running back in three straight games, and Pacheco is more than just a red-zone touchdown threat.
His ability to rip off big plays will test the Baltimore defense, and the visitors won’t be shy about handing the ball off. Pacheco had 24 carries against the Dolphins in the Wild Card Round, and he could end up with 20+ touches again this weekend. Look for a few of those to come inside the 5-yard line.
I’m also very comfortable taking the points with the Chiefs in this spot, particularly as Mahomes is 9-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career, winning outright in eight of those contests.
He delivered in Buffalo in his first true playoff road game, and if anyone is going to figure out this Ravens defense, it’s Mahomes.
Speaking of defense, don’t sleep on Kansas City’s ability to get stops. The visitors’ secondary should have an edge against the Ravens’ receivers, so their Super Bowl hopes rest on their ability to stop Baltimore’s fearsome ground game.
This feels like a game that’s going to come down to a field goal either way and I like having the points on my side.
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