Trevor Lawrence TNF Spotlight: Player Props for Thursday Night Football Week 16

Hey look: a Week 16 TNF matchup featuring the Top 2 picks from last year's draft going head-to-head!

Sure, I'm glossing over the fact that Zach Wilson has still not shown much indication that he is actually a franchise quarterback, but one outta two ain't bad, right?

And that one, well hoo boy. Trevor Lawrence props have been fun to play lately, as he has been torching opposing defenses of late, and now we're going to dip into his NFL player prop markets against the vaunted Jets defense.

Our Jaguars vs. Jets betting preview likes one of Lawrence's targets to thrive, while my free NFL picks also like the Jags QB...

Trevor Lawrence TNF prop picks

• Over 217.5 passing yards
• Over 10.5 rushing yards
• Longest completion Under 33.5 yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Trevor Lawrence TNF props

Unstoppable Force, Immovable Object

The Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback comes into this pivotal (feels weird to say that on a Jaguars vs. Jets game) matchup averaging 280 passing yards per game over his last six contests, topping 235 yards in five of those games and throwing for 318+ yards in three of his last four.

Thursday, however, he faces a New York Jets defense that gives up 211 pass yards per game to quarterbacks and has given up 205 pass yards or more just three times in its last seven games.

So, does Lawrence light up Gang Green... or do the Jets keep the Jaguars grounded? I'm actually thinking somewhere in the middle, which is good enough to top T-Law's total.

In last week's game against the Lions, New York conceded 252 passing yards to Jared Goff and did not register a single sack — the second-highest yardage total for a QB against New York this season and the first time the Jets didn't record a sack all year.

A big reason why was the absence of superstar defensive lineman Quinnen Williams, who was sidelined with a calf injury, as the Jets generated pressure on just 28.9% of Goff's dropbacks — the lowest total for New York since Week 2.

Jets head coach Robert Saleh said on Tuesday that he is "trending toward playing," but that doesn't inspire confidence that he will be 100%. That means pressure on Lawrence may again be inconsistent, and considering that he's still struggled under pressure during his hot streak (56.6% completion, 6.49 yards per attempt against 74.7% completion 7.85 ypa when not pressured), letting him be comfortable in the pocket is a recipe for bad things.

New York's secondary is headlined by CBs Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, but the Jags have four quality passing options and I expect Lawrence, given time in the pocket to let plays unfold, to attack the best matchup whenever possible.

His total right now can be found as low as 217.5 yards, which would be the second-lowest number he's faced all season and is also 20-30 yards lower than the line he's faced during his recent surge.

The weather has since shifted since Wednesday morning, with winds now expected to be in the 20-30 mph range, so while I don't think Lawrence post a massive yardage total... 217.5 still seems attainable for one of the hottest QBs (and passing attacks) in the NFL.

Prop: Trevor Lawrence Over 217.5 pass yards (-114)

Run like a cat

Lawrence has been getting lots of attention for the damage he and the Jags have been doing through the air, but don't forget that last year's first-overall pick can also pick up yards on the ground.

After averaging 19.6 rushing yards per game (on 4.3 attempts per game) last season, Lawrence has dialed back his rushing a tad, averaging just 3.5 runs per game in 2022 but still logging 17.1 yards per contest.

Those numbers, however, are deflated by a slow start, as he had 29 total rushing yards and 10 runs in his first four games — since then, he's averaging 21 ypg on the ground (on more than five attempts weekly) and has topped his TNF total (10.5 yards) seven times in those 10 games.

As for the Jets' defense, it has conceded some yards to reasonably mobile quarterbacks, as Jacoby Brissett ran for 43 yards, Kenny Pickett ran for 15 yards (in one half of action), plus Lamar Jackson ran for 17 yards and Josh Allen ran for 133 yards across two games.

It shouldn't take much for Lawrence to top this total, especially if he gets 4-5 rushes.

Prop: Trevor Lawrence Over 10.5 rush yards (-135)

Short and steady

Despite putting up some impressive stats as of late, Lawrence and the Jags haven't really relied on throwing deep balls.

He has just two completions of 34 yards or longer during his last six games (an important number because his longest completion total is 33.5 yards) and he has had much more preference (and success) on short/intermediate passes all season long.

Lawrence is fourth among all quarterbacks for "deep" pass attempts (20+ yards) per Pro Football Focus... but he's just 44th in average depth of target.

Combined with facing a Jets secondary that plays zone roughly 75% of the time and puts an emphasis on keeping offenses from going over the top, it doesn't seem like a game where the Jags will be connecting on deep bombs.

Furthermore, the Jets have allowed just three 30+ yard completions in their last five games, with two of them being short passes that turned into big yards after catch (YAC). I'm not expecting that to be a big issue on Thursday, as the Jags currently have no receivers in the Top 50 of YAC per reception this year.

I'm expecting a lot of underneath passes, and a lot of passes in the slot (to avoid Sauce and Reed) which can add up to a lot of completions and passing yards... but not necessarily the big downfield play.

Prop: Trevor Lawrence longest completion Under 33.5 yards (-110)

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