Trevor Lawrence Spotlight: Player Props for Week 18

What a difference a season can make.

In Week 18 last year, the Jacksonville Jaguars pulled off an upset win — but still got the No. 1 overall draft pick — as quarterback Trevor Lawrence endured a disastrous rookie season that saw him endure the Urban Meyer saga.

In 2022, however, I'm all too giddy to bet on Trevor Lawrence props as he and the Jags are playing for the AFC South title... and NFL odds currently have them as 6-point favorites.

Playing in prime time on Saturday night, T-Law's NFL player props are not only juicy because of the plus matchup he has... but also because he can help a few of his teammates cash in on some incentives for NFL statistical milestones.

Our Titans vs. Jaguars betting preview is keying in on a specific Jacksonville receiver. My free NFL picks? Going for the whole enchilada, as Lawrence will deliver — for his team, for his teammates, and for us bettors — so read on to see exactly what bets we should make on the Jaggies' main man.

Be sure to also check out our Titans vs. Jaguars player prop picks for more great bets!

Trevor Lawrence prop picks

• Over 254.5 passing yards
• Over 23.5 completions
• Over 1.5 passing TDs

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Trevor Lawrence props

Caturday night fever

The Jacksonville Jaguars' recipe for winning has been their offense, and I don't see them slowing down against a sad Tennessee Titans defense.

The Titans have been quite staunch against the run all season... but brutal in pass defense. Even last week, when injury-riddled Tennessee was down starters at DT, DE, LB, CB, and S, it still held the run-heavy Dallas Cowboys to 87 rushing yards — their lowest total since Week 4.

Almost all of those Week 17 absentees practiced in some capacity Wednesday, meaning this run defense should be stronger this week... but it's still a secondary that has allowed opposing QBs to average 311.2 passing yards per game over its last nine contests — and Lawrence is in a groove.

His passing yards total this week is 254.5 yards, a number he has failed to top in consecutive weeks, but don't be fooled by those stat lines:

• His 229 yards and 0 touchdowns in Week 16 came on the road against one of the league's toughest pass defenses (the Jets) in miserable weather conditions (by comparison, the Jets mustered about 90 pass yards until garbage time).

• His 152 yards and 0 touchdowns last week came in just over one half at Houston, where Travis Etienne also ran for 108 yards, the Jags were cautious in what was a meaningless game, and the score was 21-0 within 20 minutes.

Lawrence had averaged 280 passing yards per game in his six matchups prior to those outliers, including 368 yards and three touchdowns in Week 14 at Tennessee, and he topped that total in four of those six outings.

If the classic "good QB in a must-win game against a shit pass defense" isn't enough reason to go Over his yards, how about this: Jacksonville receivers Zay Jones and Christian Kirk have some receiving yards milestones within reach that could lead to added paydays.

Jones can land $500,000 for hitting the 900-yard mark, plus another $250K each for hitting 1,000 and 1,100 yards, and he currently sits at 802. Kirk, who has 1,009 yards on the season, will net an extra half a mil each if he gets to 1,100 and 1,200 yards.

Lawrence will definitely want to help his two favorite targets make some extra cash, and considering it fits into the game plan for how the Jags can win the game... I think there will be plenty of passing yards on Saturday night.

Prop: Trevor Lawrence Over 254.5 passing yards (-115)

1-877-catches-for-cash

During a college football broadcast last weekend, Robert Griffin III gave props to a Tulane wide receiver for making a play he dubbed an "HBO" — a help a brother out play.

Well, I'm stealing that, flipping it, and reversing it, as Lawrence is going to help his brothers out... in making even more money beyond what was mentioned above.

In addition to the receiving yardage milestones, Jones and Kirk — who both sit at 78 catches for the year — also can get net more moolah by racking up receptions.

• Jones will receive $250,000 for hitting 80 catches... and another $250K for 90 receptions.
• Kirk will get $500K at the 80-catch mark... and the 90-catch mark... and the 100-catch mark.

No, I don't think Kirk will get 22 catches Saturday night, plus both of those guys getting 12 catches will be a stretch... but I'll be damned if I don't think Lawrence will be looking for those two early and often on short, intermediate routes to try and pad those stats.

For Kirk, 74.1% of targets have come this season, and he should do damage against Tennessee slot CB Roger McCreary, who is allowing a 71.1% completion percentage against. Jones also sees about a quarter of his targets from the slot, but he will mostly be out wide against Kristian Fulton (still listed as questionable) and whatever other pylons the Titans trot out. 

Plus, in addition to Jones and Kirk, the late-season emergence of tight end Evan Engram and the pass-catching threat of Etienne give him more viable options than the Titans can cover.

For Lawrence, that should mean plenty of completions to top his line of 23.5 in Week 18. Again, in those six games from Weeks 8-15, Lawrence averaged 26.2 connections per game — including 25+ in five of those games — and he had a season-high 30 completions in the previous win over Tennessee.

Tennessee has also allowed 28 completions or more in four of its last five games, with the exception being 20 by the lowly Houston Texans' "passing attack." Considering this should be a pass-happy game plan for Jacksonville, I love Lawrence to crush this total.

Prop: Trevor Lawrence Over 23.5 completions (+105)

Trevor touchdown

All the yards, completions, and incentives are nice, but the Jaguars still need to actually win the game — and that means scoring points.

The Titans allowed two passing touchdowns to Dallas last week, have given up multiple pass TDs in three of their last five games, and have conceded the second-most passing TDs all season. Meanwhile, Lawrence has logged 12 TDs in his four wins prior to Weeks 15 and 16.

Fitting in with the slow, methodical passing game script I expect, we should see the Jaguars run plenty of plays in the red zone — where Lawrence is eighth in passing attempts and sixth in passing TDs — and the team passes slightly more than it runs.

Once inside the 10, Lawrence is tied for fourth among all QBs in passing TDs, and head coach Doug Pederson is almost 50/50 in his run-pass splits.

Tennessee has given up seven rushing TDs in its last six games, but it has allowed just nine scores on the ground all season. The odds are still in favor of Jacksonville scoring more through the air, so I'm betting on T-Law cooking all night long, right into the end zone — at least twice.

Prop: Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-135)

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