Tua Tagovailoa Odds and MNF Props: Tua Won't Torch Titans Stoppers

One of our two MNF odds matchups for Week 14 takes place at Hard Rock Stadium in South Beach, as the Miami Dolphins are monster 13.5-point favorites over the reeling Tennessee Titans in the NFL odds.

If you’re looking for full-game NFL picks, we’ve got you set with a Titans vs. Dolphins preview.

For our purposes, however, I’m sharing my free Tua Tagovailoa odds and NFL player prop picks and predictions. Tua has the keys to the most potent offense in football — but is it a lock he lights the Titans on fire on Monday, December 11?

Tua Tagovailoa MNF prop picks

• Under 2.5 passing TDs
• Under 2.5 passing TDs/Under 286.5 pass yds/T. Hill Over 105.5 rec yds

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Tua Tagovailoa MNF prop pick

Under 2.5 passing TDs (-180)

Sitting at 24 touchdown tosses, Tua Tagovailoa is on the verge of setting a new career high if he can hit for a couple on Monday night. But Tua has thrown for two TD passes or fewer in four straight games. In fact, he’s only hit the three-TD mark four times through 12 games.

His most impressive three-TD effort was a Week 8 effort over a sturdy New England defense, throwing for 324 yards and three majors. The other three: the last-place Panthers, the hapless Broncos in that 70-20 abomination, and the Chargers in Week 1.

The Tennessee Titans are a rattlesnake kind of team to bet against — they’ll strike you when you’re least expecting it. Since their Week 7 bye, they’ve dropped four of six, and are looking at what they have with rookie Will Levis at QB.

And yet, despite fielding a pass defense that sits inside the Bottom 10 in yards allowed, they’ve yet to allow any quarterback to throw for three TDs in a game against them all season.

That doesn’t stop the Miami Dolphins offense though, because their running attack is pounding the rock into the end zone with frequency. Raheem Mostert leads the NFL with 14 rushing scores, and De’Von Archane, in limited reps, has seven rushing TDs.

They’re tied with Baltimore for the most rushing TDs this season with 22, one of only three teams to punch in at least 20 on the ground.

In Tua’s only previous outing against Tennessee in 2021, he went 18-for-38 for 205 yards and an interception. Of course, that’s pre-Mike McDaniel and his Tagovailoa career makeover.

I think the Dolphins will put up points, but Tennessee’s no three-TD passer streak stays alive.

Prop: Tua Tagovailoa Under 2.5 TD passes (-180 at DraftKings)

Tua Tagovailoa MNF same-game parlay

Tua Tagovailoa Under 2.5 passing TDs

Tua Tagovailoa Under 286.5 passing yards

Tyreek Hill Over 105.5 receiving yards

+600 at DraftKings

We picture the Dolphins as this reincarnation of the greatest show on turf, or the early Pat Mahomes Chiefs. The truth is, their offensive success is balanced.

Yes, they lead the league in passing at 285.1 passing yards per game, but they’re also second in the run game, churning out 143.3 yards per game.

That means Tagovailoa doesn’t need to go supernova every week, and his numbers reflect that. In the last two games, the Dolphins have put up a combined 79 points, but Tua has come in Under his 286.5 total set for Monday.

In a 45-15 win over the Commanders, he was 18-for-24 for 280 yards and two scores, and was 21-for-30 for 243 yards with a TD and two picks in a 34-13 rout of the Jets.

Mike Vrabel does well with the extra rest advantage like he’ll have Monday, going 12-5 against the spread. And since the bye, only one quarterback was able to cross the set total for Tua. That was last week, with Gardner Minshew going for 312 yards in a game that went to overtime.

The books are anticipating the possibility of a blowout, but if they do, Miami’s balance and not Tua's arm will sprint up the score.

Let’s wrap this one up with the most electric wide receiver in the NFL, who’s still putting up monster numbers even though Tagovailoa isn’t.

Tyreek Hill is coming off a five-catch, 157-yard, two-TD performance against the Commanders, the third straight game he’s gone for 100+ and the eighth time this year. Hill leads the NFL with 1,481 receiving yards and 12 TD catches, while ranking second in the league with 93 receptions. Vrabel is a good coach and gets the most out of his defense, but there’s no way to gameplan for the Cheetah. 

Even if he’s not popping the top of the secondary, DBs are playing so far off him Hill always looks open in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Week 13 was the first time in seven games Hill had less than 10 targets, and he still scorched Washington.

In fact, his seven targets was the second-lowest number of the year for him, and he’s had at least nine targets in 10 of 12 games this season.

Trying to be the first receiver to ever crack 2,000 receiving yards in a season, he should figure prominently on Monday night. 

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