Tyreek Hill Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets for Monday Night Football

The Miami Dolphins will look to get back on track against a struggling Tennessee Titans team in the first of two Monday Night Football games.

To do that, they’ll need Tyreek Hill to play up to his All-Pro ability, even with Tua Tagovailoa out and Tyler Huntley starting.

Unfortunately for the Dolphins, the Titans' defense has quietly gotten off to a decent start, making the Tyreek Hill odds for Monday, September 30, difficult to feel good about in this matchup.

Tyreek Hill MNF player prop picks

• Best bet
  Tyreek Hill Under 4.5 receptions
  (-128 at FanDuel)
  
  
• SGP Pick
  Under 4.5 receptions
  Under 51.5 receiving yards
  Over 6.5 1Q receiving yards
  (+467 at FanDuel)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Tyreek Hill MNF prop pick

My best bet
Tyreek Hill Under 4.5 receptions (-128 at FanDuel)

My analysis

The start of the Miami Dolphins’ season has gone about as badly as possible with Tagovailoa’s concussion and a 1-2 start. Obviously, Skylar Thompson isn’t a serviceable backup and it’s a shock Miami didn’t invest in a QB capable of getting its stars the ball.

But even with a QB change to Tyler Huntley, it’s going to be much of the same for the Dolphins against the Titans. Don’t let Huntley’s Pro Bowl nod in 2022 fool you, he’s not a top-notch backup QB.

There’s a reason the Baltimore Ravens opted for journeyman Josh Johnson over Snoop. And I think we’ll see similar production from Tyreek Hill with Huntley at QB.

Hill’s failed to catch more than three passes in back-to-back games, and for as bad as the Titans are, this pass defense is actually in the top half of the league.

Tennessee is 12th in EPA per dropback and against a similar situation when they played the Green Bay Packers, they held every receiver to Under 4.5 receptions. That’s a credit to the cornerback trio of Chidobe Awuzie, Roger McCreary, and L’Jarius Sneed.

Hill’s previously struggled against Sneed, and all three Titans’ starting cornerbacks are allowing a QB rating of 78.1 or lower when targeted, per PFF. While Sneed is questionable for the game, he was a full participant in Friday’s practice.

On the other side, the Dolphins aren’t just down their starting QB. Star left tackle Terron Armstead is also out, making it that much harder to drop back and pass against this Tennessee defense.

It’s also fair to assume that Mike McDaniel is going with Huntley in the hopes of emulating what the Packers did with Malik Willis against this defense. Expect a run-heavy approach with Huntley and De’Von Achane — Hill might even be a more effective rusher than a receiver in this one.

Tyreek Hill MNF same-game parlay

Under 4.5 receptions

Under 51.5 receiving yards

Over 6.5 1Q receiving yards

+467 at FanDuel

Over the last two games, Hill has put up just 64 total receiving yards. And with Huntley in, I’m not sure he’s going to be able to get to 50.

The last time Huntley started a game - Week 18 for the Ravens last season - he wasn’t credited with a single big-time throw and had an average depth of target of only 6.1. He’s an ultra-conservative passer, which works against Hill’s big-play ability.

Even during Huntley’s “Pro Bowl” season, he made just three big-time throws in six games with an ADOT of 7.4. He hasn’t even thrown for 200 yards in his last seven starts.

And with Sneed potentially seeing the bulk of the snaps vs. Hill, it will only make it harder to hit big plays. Sneed’s allowed just five receptions for 65 yards in three games this season.

Last year when Sneed was with the Kansas City Chiefs, Hill only had five receptions for 62 yards in their matchup in the playoffs. And that was with Tagovailoa healthy. 

With that said, I do expect McDaniel to try and get Hill the ball early with a manufactured touch (screen, pop pass, etc). That should help him reach at least seven receiving yards in the first quarter.

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