Vikings vs Dolphins Week 6 Picks and Predictions: Fade Miami's Offense with Thompson Starting

The Minnesota Vikings head to the Sunshine State to take on the Miami Dolphins in Week 6 of NFL action on Sunday afternoon.

The Dolphins have both starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and backup Teddy Bridgewater in concussion protocol, causing them to turn to rookie Skylar Thompson. With that in mind, oddsmakers are expecting the road team to prevail, with NFL betting lines installing the Vikes as 3-point favorites.

Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Vikings vs. Dolphins on October 16. 

Vikings vs Dolphins best odds

Vikings vs Dolphins picks and predictions

Thompson was fantastic during the preseason but let's keep our expectations in check for a seventh-round rookie QB. He won't be playing against third-stringers and practice squad players on Sunday, and he didn't look sharp against the Jets last week when he completed 19 of 33 passes (57.6%) for 199 yards and an interception. 

After shutting down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Week 1, Minnesota's defense has underachieved but still has some very talented players. This is especially the case on the edge, where Danielle Hunter and Za'Darius Smith can bring the heat against a Miami offensive line that has struggled in pass protection. Greg Little has been awful at right tackle, while left tackle Terron Armstead is battling through a toe injury and hasn't practiced this week. 

Tua and Dolphins dropping 28 points in the fourth quarter against the Ravens has been seared into our memory, but they haven't actually been that great offensively outside of those 15 minutes. They had a modest 307 yards and 20 points against the Patriots in Week 1 and have averaged just 295 yards per game, while also failing to score more than 21 points in their last three games. 

Now they'll have a rookie QB that will try to pick up an offense that was built for Tua with lots of pre-snap reads and quick passes. I'm fading the Phins offense and taking the Under on their team total. 

My best bet: Dolphins team total Under 21.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Vikings vs Dolphins spread analysis

The Vikings are on a three-game winning streak, but all of those victories were extremely close contests, and they failed to cover the spread in each one. Last week they scored the game-winning touchdown with just two minutes left on the clock versus the Bears, and the previous week they won on a last-minute field goal against the Saints in London. 

The Dolphins surged to a 3-0 SU and ATS start to their season but have struggled without Tua over the last two weeks.

In Week 4, they were competitive with their franchise QB. However, as soon as he was injured, the Bengals took over and won 27-15. The Phins lost backup Teddy Bridgewater on the first play of the game last week and ended up getting destroyed 40-17 by the Jets with Thompson under center. 

The Dolphins' offense has understandably regressed without Tua, while their defense has looked vulnerable all season and ranks 29th in the NFL in EPA/play and success rate. 

The Vikings are 4-1 on the season, with their lone defeat coming against undefeated Philadelphia, but they haven't looked impressive outside of that season-opener against the Packers.

They have been balanced on offense, ranking ninth in the league in EPA/play. Like Miami, Minnesota has shown cracks on defense, and it's a bit concerning that the Vikes haven't been able to shut down offenses led by Justin Fields and Andy Dalton in consecutive weeks. 

Vikings vs Dolphins Over/Under analysis

Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins continues to be a solid passer (so long as he isn't expected to perform on prime time) and has a pair of elite weapons in Pro-Bowl running back Dalvin Cook and wideout Justin Jefferson. 

The Dolphins have been very solid at defending the run this season but have struggled against the pass and rank 30th in the league in Dropback EPA.

Even if they keep Cook bottled up, they won't be able to limit Minnesota's aerial attack, especially if Pro Bowl corner Xavien Howard continues to be bothered by a groin injury that kept him out last week. 

The Vikings' defense ranks just 22nd in EPA/Play but is virtually the same stop unit that ranked 12th last year. They should be able to prevent big plays, with Thompson lacking the arm strength to attack vertically.

They might find it tougher to limit a Dolphins' ground game that finally broke out last week with Raheem Mostert rushing for 113 yards on 18 carries. Expect McDaniel to phase out the ineffective Chase Edmonds in favor of Mostert, who has proven to be a good fit for this scheme from his days in San Francisco.

Vikings vs Dolphins betting trend to know

The Over is 10-3 in the Vikings' last 13 games overall and has also gone 10-3 in their previous 13 contests on the road. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Dolphins.

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