The Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles were two of the betting community’s favorite teams heading into the 2022 season and now they will meet under the prime-time lights of Monday Night Football at Lincoln Finacial Field.
When looking at the markets for Vikings vs. Eagles picks, I’m expecting another big day on the ground from Jalen Hurts, while Kirk Cousins will take what the defense gives him for another very efficient performance.
Here are my favorite NFL player props for the late Monday Night Football game to end Week 2.
Vikings vs Eagles props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Vikings vs Eagles MNF props
Designed Hurts
Only eight running backs ran the ball more times than Jalen Hurts last week. The Philadelphia quarterback rushed 17 times for 90 yards vs. the Lions in a game where the Eagles were leading for over 37 minutes.
On top of the output in a game script that didn't necessarily dictate it, Hurts also had an impressive eight designed runs but also gained chunks scrambling, as 64 of his total rushing yards were non-designed rushes. With a rushing total of 49.5 yards, there are a lot of outs we have for this to hit.
"You don't want him to take those hits... but you can't take away the thing he does best"
— 975TheFanatic (@975TheFanatic) September 16, 2022
- @DZangaroNBCS on Jalen Hurts
Hurts could cash this Over burning clock while playing with a lead on designed runs, playing catch up to a Minnesota team whose passing game could run up the score, or even just making plays in a one-score tight game.
THE BLITZ has the signal-caller projected for over 65 yards rushing, which isn’t hard to fathom considering the Eagles ran the ball at the fourth-highest rate last week (54.17%) after leading the league in rushing percentage in 2021.
The QB averaged 52.3 rushing yards per game a season ago, and with the addition of A.J. Brown, this offense is even more dangerous, which could lead to bigger gains for Hurts with more attention on Brown and the receiving group.
Jalen Hurts Prop: Over 49.5 rushing yards (-115)
Efficient Cousins
The Eagles generated the fourth-worst pressure rate vs. the Lions last week and, considering the matchup, that has to be a big disappointment for Nick Sirianni’s team. Compounding these issues is EDGE rusher Derek Barnett, who tore his ACL in that game. The Eagles could find getting to Kirk Cousins difficult Monday night, which is great news for the Minnesota passing game.
Cousins finished fourth in the league in EPA/att with no pressure last season and took just one sack vs. a Green Bay pass rush that many rank as a Top-5 unit. Cousins could be picking apart this secondary that also allowed a league-high 70% completion rating a season ago.
The Eagles allowed the fewest explosive pass plays in 2021 as they take away the deep ball and give up the short-yardage stuff, which is why they allowed such a high completion percentage. Cousins will be forced to look underneath as the Eagles keep everything in front of them, which will allow Cousins to make easier and shorter completions. In 2020, Cousins was the No. 1 QB in “lay-up” throws with a 0.32 EPA/att.
With sharp money hitting this Over early in the week, I’m expecting plenty of two-way scoring that will keep the Vikes and Cousins aggressive. I’m looking for the Minnesota QB to take what the defense gives him and have an efficient day with Over 24.5 completions. This is the same number his completion total closed last week vs. arguably the best secondary in football. One more week with his new offensive system is also a good thing here.
Kirk Cousins Prop: Over 24.5 completions (+100)
7-Eleven personnel
New Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell loves himself some 11 personnel, which consists of three wideouts. The system he brought over from the Rams certainly puts the focus on the Cooper Kupp role — now the Justin Jefferson role — but still allows a ton of snaps to his new WR3, KJ Osborn.
Osborn caught just three balls for 17 yards last week, but he played nearly 70% of the snaps and no receiver below him on the depth chart even charted a snap on offense. Of his 42 snaps, he ran a route on 29 of them in a game that his team was leading for the majority of. If this game remains close for 60 minutes, Osborne could easily see an uptick in snaps, and with a reception total of just 2.5, we don’t need much from him.
As I said, the Eagles do a great job defensively at giving up the short pass, which should be to Osborn’s benefit as he posted an aDOT of just 5.75 yards last week on his four targets. He averaged just 4.3 air yards per reception and had a 13% target share which was the same as Adam Thielen, who played 17 more snaps. Osborn (No. 17) also saw an unusual amount of elite corner Jaire Alexander (No. 23), who for some reason didn't shadow Jefferson in Week 1.
Justin Jefferson gets the best of both Packers safeties. Dots! pic.twitter.com/j4x9IhZEdK
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) September 11, 2022
I’m not saying Osborn is going to have a big game, but vs. this Philadelphia secondary and with a likely increase in snaps, three catches look like a great play here.
KJ Osborn Prop: Over 2.5 receptions (-154)
