A Monday so nice, they’re doing it twice with the Minnesota Vikings visiting the Philadelphia Eagles in the second of two Monday Night Football matchups in Week 2. I'm here to break down the point spread and total and give my best NFL betting picks and predictions for Vikings at Eagles on September 19.
These teams were offseason darlings among sharp NFL bettors, drawing money and forcing notable adjustments on their NFL futures odds. Minny and Philly made good on those projections in Week 1, both starting the season with victories.
Philadelphia hung on for an uncomfortable win at Detroit, giving up 21 points in the second half, while Minnesota staked its claim in the NFC North with an impressive win over Green Bay. That has kept this spread tight all week, with opinions strong on both sides.
Vikings vs Eagles best odds
Vikings vs Eagles picks and predictions
I went with Minnesota and the points in my weekly NFL Underdogs column, but I also love this long-time Viking to have a big night — or at least one big catch on Monday Night Football.
Veteran receiver Adam Thielen gushed about Kevin O’Connell’s new-look offense after the Week 1 win over Green Bay, praising the aggressiveness of the playbook. Thielen had a subtle 2022 debut, catching three of four targets for 36 yards, including a 22-yard reception.
The Vikes threw on just 54% of snaps against Green Bay but did go run heavy in the second half after Kirk Cousins attempted 21 passes in the opening 30 minutes. Expect to see Cousins come out firing again Monday and with this total climbing significantly, a potential shootout means a lot more looks for Minnesota’s receivers.
Philadelphia’s defense plays plenty of deep zone coverage in an attempt to guard against throws over the top. With Minnesota’s home run-hitting WR Justin Jefferson drawing the attention of the secondary, after his explosive Week 1 effort, there will be a bounty of clean air underneath that coverage. The Vikes’ other targets could find themselves against lesser coverage as Jonathan Gannon is forced to throw double coverage at Jefferson.
Thielen is a shifty route runner who can find that space in zone coverage and break for extra yards after the catch against an Eagles defense that allowed 119 YAC and missed 10 tackles vs. Detroit in Week 1. All of Thielen’s Week 1 catches came on short and medium-depth routes and O’Connell moved him around, with 14 of his 59 offensive snaps coming in the slot.
Thielen’s production has been slowed by injuries in recent seasons, but he’s the healthiest he’s been in a while to start the 2022 campaign. In 13 games in 2021, he posted a reception of 21 yards or longer in 10 of those showings. His longest reception prop total in Week 1 was 20.5 yards — which he just eclipsed with a 22-yard catch — and he has a great chance to go Over that number again against a softer Philly secondary.
My best bet: Adam Thielen Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards (-105 at DraftKings)
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Vikings vs Eagles betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
The lookahead line for this game, set before the start of the 2022 season, was Philadelphia -2.5. With the Vikings looking great on both sides of the ball in a home victory over the rival Packers in Week 1 and the Eagles’ offense putting on a show in a 38-35 win in Detroit, books re-opened this spread at that number.
Action varied earlier in the week, with the spread slimming as low as Philly -1 at some shops — reporting more money on Minnesota — while other books held on to the original spread, drawing solid two-way play.
The Vikings’ win over Green Bay was impressive on paper, but many point to the missing bodies on the offensive line for the Cheeseheads as well as Aaron Rodgers struggling to connect with his new receivers.
That took the shine of that winner and had action later in the week leaning Philadelphia at home on those shorter spreads of -1 and -2, which has drawn 51% of bets at BetMGM books but pulled in bigger wagers on the Eagles with 63% of the handle on the host team. As of Sunday morning, the industry consensus is Philadelphia -2.5.
Over/Under analysis
The lookahead total was pegged at 48 points in the summer with both offenses expected to pass more than their run-centric playbooks in 2021. Philadelphia added WR A.J. Brown alongside budding QB Jalen Hurts and Minnesota hired offensive-minded head coach Kevin O’Connell.
Following the Week 1 results, books re-opened this total at 48.5, which wasn’t a big enough adjustment in the eyes of early bettors.
After the Eagles’ offense erupted for 38 points in Week 1 — and then caved for 35 points against Detroit — and the Vikings hung 23 points on a high-touted Packers defense, the early opinion was on the Over and ran this number as high as 51 points in the first 48 hours of action.
Philadelphia ranked No. 2 in EPA per play for Week 1 while the Vikings sat No. 7 in that advanced metric. On the flip side, the Eagles' defense sat 27th in EPA allowed in the opening week including 30th in EPA allowed per handoff. The Vikings have multiple weapons on offense, including RB Dalvin Cook who can exploit a soft run stop from Philadelphia.
There was buyback at that peak of 51 points, which leveled this Over/Under to 51.5 at most books across the industry. According to BetMGM books, 76% of bets and 77% of money is riding on the Over, and with primetime games like MNF drawing plenty of public play, this total could go back up once those bettors gravitate toward a high-scoring finish to Week 2.
Vikings vs Eagles game info
• Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Monday, September 19, 2022
• Kickoff: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Vikings vs Eagles key injuries
Vikings vs Eagles weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Vikings vs Eagles betting trend to know
Philadelphia is 5-8 SU and 4-8-1 ATS when coming off a win the past three seasons, including 3-5-1 ATS in those spots in 2021. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Eagles.
