Sunday football wraps up with Sean Mannion leading the must-win Minnesota Vikings to the frozen field of Lambeau to take on the Green Bay Packers as 13-point underdogs. Kirk Cousins is out as the seven-year, three career-start Mannion will take the snaps against Green Bay in single-digit temperatures.
Should every Minnesota offensive player be downgraded with the addition of Mannion? Can Aaron Rodgers continue his push for a second straight MVP as he enters Week 17 as the betting favorite? Find out in our free props and predictions for Vikings vs. Packers.
Vikings vs Packers prop picks
- Dalvin Cook Over 99.5 total yards (-115)
- Justin Jefferson Under 75.5 receiving yards (-121)
- AJ Dillon anytime TD (+220)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Vikings vs Packers SNF props
Counting on Cook
Sean Mannion has been in the league since 2015 and has made just three starts, most recently in 2019 for the Vikings where he went 12 for 21 passing for 215 yards and two interceptions in an indoor game. Mannion is familiar with the offense as he has backed up Cousins for two seasons, but this is as tough a spot for a backup that exists in the NFL.
The Green Bay defense has quietly been one of the worst units in football all season despite the team racking up wins. Since Week 10, Matt LaFleur’s defense ranks 25th in EPA/play and 31st in EPA/play against the run. On the season, it ranks dead-last in rush EPA/play. With Minnesota in must-win mode and starting a quarterback who is likely the worst starter entering Week 17, it’s safe to assume that the Packers could see a heavy diet of running back Dalvin Cook.
Cook missed last week due to COVID but is ready to go in Week 17. He ran for 86 yards and gained over 100 total yards against Green Bay at home in Week 11 and will get to face a run defense that allows an average of 115 total yards to opposing running backs. The Packers have also conceded 499 rushing yards over their last three games (vs. the Browns, Ravens and Bears).
Cook ran for 163 yards and three touchdowns at Lambeau Field last year and added 63 yards receiving and could see some more work in the passing game Sunday night. Of Mannion’s 21 passes in his last start, eight of them went to running backs and we’d expect to see a similar amount of check-downs as Mike Zimmer plays the conservative card with so much on the line.
Cook could be in for some heavy usage against one of the worst defenses in football (29th in success rate) and taking his total yards prop at 99.5 yards ensures us of a live bet that should be game script-proof. If that market is unavailable, we’d prefer the Over 15.5 receiving yards to his rushing total.
If Zimmer had no problems feeding Cook in Week 14 after a shoulder injury kept him out of the lineup in Week 13, we doubt he has any problems giving Cook all he can handle in Week 17. He’s eclipsed 30 touches in two straight games.
PICK: Dalvin Cook Over 99.5 total yards (-115 at bet365)
Unfortunate JefferSON
Justin Jefferson sits second in receiving yards this season just behind Cooper Kupp and ahead of Davante Adams. He's arguably the best receiver drafted in the last five seasons but with Mannion throwing him the ball Sunday night, we should be realistic about his production this week.
Adam Thielen is still out but we could still expect a lower-volume passing attack — or at least a more conservative one — from Zimmer. Mannion finished with a 6.0 yards-per-pass mark in his 2019 start with Minnesota and we’d be surprised to see him take many shots against the Green Bay secondary which is the strength of this defense.
Jefferson averages 10.3 air yards per reception which is the highest on the team and if Mannion starts avoiding his first read and gets into the habit of bringing his eyes down, we could see plenty of short passes from the 2015 third-round pick QB.
In the two games that Adam Thielen has been out, opposing defenses have had success keying on Jefferson as the wideout caught just 7 of 15 passes for 79 yards in Week 14 and four of 10 passes for 46 yards in Week 15. Jefferson torched this defense in the Week 11 meeting for 169 yards but the circumstances are much different heading into Week 17. The WR finished with just 26 yards on three catches in his game at Lambeau Field last season.
With a receiving yard total as high as 75.5 yards at PointsBet, we have to hit the Under here with the QB situation working against Jefferson. This total opened at 83.5 yards last week with Cousins under center in an indoor game and now with Mannion and Lambeau on deck, we’re thinking eight yards isn’t enough despite the talent.
PICK: Justin Jefferson Under 75.5 receiving yards (-121 at PointsBet)
Dillon’s day
Aaron Jones is back to 100% and this two-headed rushing attack has been more than effective of late as the Packers are riding a four-game winning streak. Jones has been getting slightly more usage over the last three weeks — 101 snaps to 84 snaps and 25 carries to 16 over the last two weeks — but it’s been Dillon closing out games and getting the red-zone work.
Dillon has 12 RZ rushes over the last three weeks compared to Jones’ five. Dillon is the much bigger back at 250 pounds and should continue to have a big role Sunday, especially near the end zone.
The Vikings allow 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game but also own a Bottom-10 red-zone defense that allows TDs at a 60 percent rate. Dillon ran for 53 yards on 11 carries in the last meeting in Week 11 without Jones in the lineup and also got some usage in the passing game where he caught all six targets for 44 yards.
With Jones getting a little more attention between the 20s, the books are giving us a better price on a Dillon TD but DraftKings is way off the market price and offering +220 while other books have it priced as low as +115.
Dillon was built for games like this and finished with 124 yards and two TDs in a wintery matchup at Lambeau vs. the Titans in Week 15 of last season with Jones in the lineup.
PICK: AJ Dillon anytime TD (+220 at DraftKings)
