For the second straight week, the Minnesota Vikings (12-3) clawed out a last-minute win after beating the Giants 27-24 with a 61-yard field goal.
Speaking of comebacks, the Green Bay Packers (7-8) find themselves in serious playoff contention after rattling off three straight wins in December. They will play host to the Vikings at Lambeau Field, which will mark Minnesota's first game outdoors since November 13th.
Can Aaron Rodgers and the Packers topple the Vikings by dragging them outside, or will Justin Jefferson and the Vikings continue to show their resilience and grind out yet another win?
Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Vikings vs Packers on January 1.
Vikings vs Packers best odds
Vikings vs Packers picks and predictions
The Minnesota Vikings have had one of the more interesting 2022 seasons. Despite boasting the league's third-best record, they have just a +5 point differential, and much has been made of it by media members and fans alike. The sports betting market has also expressed skepticism, with the Vikings having not been favored by more than four points since early November.
And the market may be ultimately right. The Vikings (despite their late-game heroics and record-setting comebacks) have lost three straight against the spread and are just 6-8-1 on the season. Football Outsiders' DVOA metric has the Vikings just 25th overall, ranking 19th on offense and 22nd on defense.
That isn't to say there isn't anything spectacular about a team with 12 wins. In fact, third-year wide receiver Justin Jefferson should arguably be firmly in the MVP race, given how much he elevates his team's offense and overall floor and ceiling. He needs 209 yards to break the single-season receiving yard record, and this comes after breaking the record for most receiving yards in a player's first, second, and third seasons.
The metrics back up his gravity as well. Jefferson ranks first in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) with 497. He also has the second-best Pro Football Focus rating among wide receivers (90.9), trailing just Tyreek Hill while doing it in a more discernible sample (nearly 400 more snaps).
On Sunday, Jefferson will face a Green Bay Packers secondary that he carved up in Week 1, recording nine receptions for 184 yards and two touchdowns — all of which came in the first half.
Packers' star cornerback Jaire Alexander called the game a "fluke" earlier this week, with Alexander and fellow cornerback Rasul Douglas going even further and saying they did not even spend any time watching back the Week 1 tape in preparation for this week's game.
To the Packers' credit, their defense has been much better as of late, and Douglas' ultimate point was that the Packers are an entirely different defense and team compared to the team that started 4-8. In the last three weeks, the Packers have allowed just 17 points on average.
The counterpoint? The Packers faced the Bears (23rd in offensive DVOA) and the Rams (32nd) in those first two games and were getting carved up by the Dolphins (20 points in the first half) before Tua Tagovailoa suffered his third concussion of the year.
Sure, wins are wins, but context is infinitely more important in the NFL.
All in all, the Packers reek of misguided arrogance, and the Vikings have been disrespected in the market for far too long. The Packers' typical late-season cold weather advantage also won't be as strong as usual, with the temperature expected to reach the high 30s near kickoff.
My best bet: Vikings +3.5 (-115 at PointsBet)
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Vikings vs Packers spread analysis
The spread opened with the Packers as -3.5 favorites, and most books have shifted towards an even -3 since.
Green Bay is 7-8 against the spread this year and has gone 2-3 as home favorites. The Packers have won and covered in three straight but went just 2-7 in the previous nine, both SU and ATS.
The Vikings have gone 6-8-1 ATS this year which includes a 1-2 split as road underdogs. Minnesota has failed to cover in three straight despite winning two of those games, but covered in five of seven previous to that.
Minny opened as underdogs of more than a field goal just once this season. In Week 10, the Vikings were road underdogs of +6.5 against the Bills and won that game outright.
The Packers lead the all-time series at 64-57-3 but have lost three of the last four in the matchup.
In terms of successful drives on both ends of the ball, the Packers rank 11th in net yards per drive (offensive yards gained per drive minus defensive yards allowed per drive), while the Vikings rank 24th. However, in net points per drive, Minnesota ranks 11th to Green Bay's 19th.
Vikings vs Packers Over/Under analysis
The total opened at a modest 44.5 but has since moved to as high as 48.5 at some shops. Most books have settled in the 47.5 to 48 range, and it is certainly a total that is worth shopping around for.
The Packers are 8-7 to the Under on the year, including a 3-2 split to the Under as home favorites. They have gone Under in two straight games but hit the Over in the four prior to that. On totals of 48 or higher, they have gone 2-0 to the Under.
Minnesota is 10-5 to the Over this year, which is tied for the highest rate of Overs in the league at 66.7%. They have cashed the Over in five straight and are 4-2 to the Over on totals of 48 or higher.
However, as mentioned previously, Minnesota has not played outdoors since November 13th, and they have gone 5-1 to the Over during that span. The Vikings have gone 4-2 to the Under when playing outdoors this season and 8-1 to the Over when playing indoors.
Vikings vs Packers betting trend to know
Minnesota has gone 4-2 to the Under this year when playing outdoors this season, as opposed to 8-1 to the Over when playing indoors. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Packers.
Vikings vs Packers game info
| Location: | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI |
| Date: | Sunday, January 1, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Packers -3.5, 44.5 O/U |
Vikings vs Packers latest injuries
Vikings vs Packers weather
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