The final game of the NFL Wild Card Round takes place on neutral ground as the Minnesota Vikings travel to Glendale, AZ to face the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night.
Sam Darnold will start his first playoff game and try to lead his team to the NFC Divisional round, while the Rams may get a kick out of Joshua Karty while getting the ball in Tyler Higbee's hands.
We’ve found some of the top individual betting values in our Vikings vs Rams NFL player props on Monday, January 13.
Vikings vs Rams props
- Karty Over 6.5 points (-129 at Caesars)
- Jefferson longest reception Over 27.5 yards (-113 at Caesars)
- Higbee Over 24.5 receiving yards (-121 at Caesars)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Vikings vs Rams props
Prop bet #1: Joshua Karty Over 6.5 points
The Los Angeles Rams averaged just 21.6 points per game this season, the fewest of any playoff team. And before scoring 25 points in their season-ending loss to the Seahawks, they tallied 19 points or fewer in three consecutive victories.
In fact, kicker Joshua Karty was responsible for more than half their points scored in their final four games, with 39 of their 69 coming off his foot. That includes last week, when he made all four field-goal attempts, including a pair from 50+ yards out.
Karty has scored at least eight points in five straight contests and has been getting plenty of chances as the Rams continue to struggle to find the end zone. Los Angeles ranks 25th in touchdown rate inside the 20-yard line, breaching the goal line on less than 52.4% of their visits.
While the Minnesota Vikings are in the middle of the pack in red-zone defense, they have allowed the fifth-fewest touchdowns this season. The Rams scored four touchdowns in the first meeting this season, while Karty was never given a chance to kick a field goal.
I expect that to be different here. He’s shown excellent range and has been extremely reliable of late, and the Rams' recent offensive struggles mean he’ll likely get a few chances with his feet. Toss in a PAT or two and I love him to get to seven points at this number.
Prop bet #2: Justin Jefferson longest reception Over 27.5 yards
Justin Jefferson has been hitting big plays, registering a catch of 30+ yards in three consecutive games and five of his last seven.
To hit the Over on his longest catch on Monday night, he’ll need to haul in a pass of 28 or more yards. He’s done this in nine games this season and fell a yard short in three others. This includes the first meeting with the Rams, where he caught a 27-yard pass en route to a nine-catch, 115-yard performance.
Only three defenses in the NFL have given up more passes of 20+ yards this season than the Rams, and they’ve given up nine catches of 30+ yards in their last seven games. Four of their last five opponents — the lowly Jets being the outlier — have seen their leading receiver catch a pass of at least 30 yards.
The Rams rank 25th in pass defense DVOA and 18th in sack rate and simply haven’t been able to take away the opposing offense’s top targets. Jefferson has seen a huge uptick in usage down the stretch, with 47 targets in his last four games, and Sam Darnold will have time to find him downfield at least once for a huge play against a suspect secondary.
Prop bet #3: Tyler Higbee Over 24.5 receiving yards
Tyler Higbee is priced at -155 to make at least three catches in this game. If he hits that target, he’ll easily clear his receiving total.
While the Vikings have been very good defensively, tight ends have found success. In their last three games, opposing tight ends have totaled 200 yards on 16 catches with all three starters gaining 50+ yards.
The Rams would be smart to get Higbee involved. All but six of Minnesota’s 17 opponents this year completed at least three passes to tight ends, and those teams averaged 69.2 yards on those throws. That includes the Rams, with Colby Parkinson catching two passes for 17 yards and Hunter Long bringing in an 18-yard reception.
The Vikings will have to pay a lot of attention to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and that should open things up for other players in the passing game. He’s got three games under his belt after returning from a brutal knee injury in last year’s Wild Card game and caught seven passes for 46 yards last week.
Stafford showed faith in him down the stretch last season, and I expect he’ll look to him as his third option with Demarcus Robinson getting just five targets in Stafford’s last four starts. That should get him to 25+ yards with ease.
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