The Cleveland Browns were the scourge of the NFL betting community in Week 2 – at least for those that laid the Browns -6 last Thursday. Cleveland is once again forcing bettors to make the tough choice, giving a touchdown to the Washington Football Team in Week 3.
The Browns allowed the Cincinnati Bengals to steal a backdoor cover in last Thursday’s 35-30 win. Washington, on the other hand, couldn’t build on a Week 1 upset over Philadelphia and lost a one-sided showdown to the Arizona Cardinals.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Washington vs. Browns on September 27.
Washington Football Team vs Cleveland Browns betting preview
Weather
The forecast is calling for sunny skies with temperatures in the high 70s and winds blowing up to 15 mph at FirstEnergy Stadium on Sunday. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Washington: Brandon Scherff G (Out), Cole Holcomb LB (Out), Saahdiq Charles T (Out), Kendall Fuller CB (Probable).
Browns: Olivier Vernon DE (Out), Greedy Williams CB (Out), David Njoku TE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Browns are 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Washington vs. Browns.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Cleveland opened as low as -6 for this game and was quickly bet up to a 7-point home favorite. The Browns have enjoyed a mini bye following that Thursday nighter in Week 2, but even that extra time off can’t convince me that Cleveland is a touchdown better than any team right now.
Sure, Washington got mopped by the Cardinals in Week 2, but a second-half surge had Arizona backers feeling a little nervous after counting their cash in the first 30 minutes. The Football Team is built for backdoor covers, scoring all but seven of its total 42 points this season in the final two frames.
On top of that, this defensive front is a handful. Washington had eight sacks versus the Eagles in Week 1 and managed three on the elusive Kyler Murray last Sunday. Baker Mayfield has shown his true colors when under pressure and his Week 2 efforts were helped out by the fact that Cincinnati brought little pass pressure on defense.
PREDICTION: Washington +7 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The offense is simple for Cleveland: ground and pound. But, with guys like Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. demanding touches, will Kevin Stefanski be able to stick to the rushing game as his motor?
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are the best rushing duo in the NFL and will get their share of carries, with Cleveland trying to take the heat off Baker, knowing the Football Team are bringing the pass rush. That should help keep the yardage short and clock ticking.
As for Washington, the Football Team isn’t ripping off chunks of big yardage but rather building momentum with short passes and a committee of so-so running backs. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins is picking up 6.3 yards per pass and the ground game is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry. Cleveland’s defense can make bad offenses look good, but this 44-point total paints the picture pretty clearly.
PREDICTION: Under 44 (-110)
First quarter pick
As we mentioned, it takes a while for Washington to warm up. Like old school wrestler Greg “The Hammer” Valentine, the more you beat on him, the stronger he gets. But, fresh out of the blocks, Washington isn’t putting up much of a fight.
The Football Team has registered goose eggs in both first-quarter showings this season and going back to 2019, Washington averaged only 2.3 points per first frame on the year.
Cleveland checked the Bengals to a field goal in the opening frame of their Week 2 matchup and gave up only 2.2 points per first quarter at home last season – a stark contrast to the 7.2 first-quarter points allowed on the road.
Washington's first quarter total is set at shutout or bust. For the same price, we can get the combined first quarter total at 7.5, giving us some wiggle room in case Washington sneaks in a field goal.
PREDICTION: First quarter Under 7.5 (-109)
Washington vs Browns betting card
- Washington +7 (-110)
- Under 44 (-110)
- First quarter Under 7.5 (-109)
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