Way Too Early 2023 Season Futures Picks: Mile High Comeback Story

The setting sun of this past NFL season is still a tangerine glow on the horizon as we enter the dark, post-football stretch of the sports betting calendar. However, bookies are offering a beacon of light for those still scrounging for NFL betting action. 

We’re talking NFL odds futures.

There are many stops between now and Week 1 that will mold and mutate the NFL futures, including the upcoming draft, free agency, and the always-electric QB carousel, which will have some big-name gunslingers spinning this offseason. But why wait until then to get some long-term investments down?

Here are a few way too early NFL futures picks and predictions for the 2023 season.

Division of Super Bowl winner

To squeeze as much pulpy goodness from this one as you can, we need to look at which division will send the most teams to the postseason. If you scout Super Bowl futures, we see the AFC West (+325) has all four teams inside the Top 20, in terms of odds to win outright. 

The Chiefs are an obvious one, but you can get Kansas City to repeat at +550. The Los Angeles Chargers are a tempting take now that OC Kellen Moore is working with Justin Herbert, the Denver Broncos have to improve with Sean Payton on the sideline, and the ceiling is high for the Las Vegas Raiders — if the roll of the dice at QB comes up big.

But what about the AFC North? 

The division is priced at +475 to house the Big Game champs, and has two high-end contenders in the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens already in the mix for the Lombardi Trophy, with those clubs No. 3 and No. 4 respectively in the odds to win the AFC Championship. 

Parked alongside the Raiders and Broncos in the Super Bowl futures are the Cleveland Browns (lost six games by one score/four by three or less), who now get a full season with Deshaun Watson at QB. Hell, the Pittsburgh Steelers just missed the postseason cut at No. 8 in the AFC last year and played solid ball to close out the sked.

There’s a shot the AFC North could send three teams to the postseason in 2023. You’ve got quality quarterbacks (Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Watson), proven head coaches (John Harbaugh, Zac Taylor, Mike Tomlin), and stingy defensive units with game-breaking talents among all four teams.

Seems like a Super Bowl recipe to me. Don’t sleep on the AFC North.

Pick: AFC North (+475 at bet365)

2023 NFL MVP

Justin Herbert is going to be a busybody in 2023. 

Former offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi is gone, and new L.A. Chargers OC Kellen Moore is in. 

Moore made Dallas one of the most dangerous passing attacks in the land the past few seasons, despite Jerry Jones insisting the Cowboys run the ball for the sake of Ezekiel Elliott’s paycheck. Now, Moore is out from under Jones and Mike McCarthy and has one of the best young QBs at his disposal.

Herbert threw the ball on over 65% of snaps last season — second most in the NFL — and he finished with 4,739 passing yards — also second most. However, that passing attack lacked real claws considering he finished among the bottom of the league in intended air yards and averaged just 6.8 yards per attempt in 2022 after hanging 7.3 and 7.5 average yards in his first two seasons.

Injuries also played a role in Herbert’s weirdo numbers this past year, with top targets Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in and out and the offensive line shuffled and reshuffled due to injuries. Herbert suffered 38 sacks (T-7th most) and was hurried 50 times (2nd most) behind that patchwork pass protection.

The 2023 layout looks good for a Herbert NFL MVP campaign. While the official schedule isn’t coming until the spring, Los Angles’ slate of opponents hands Herbert the second softest lineup of pass defenses, according to Fantasy Footballers’ eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com.

The Bolts will likely bolster their receiving corps via free agency and the draft, including adding depth at tight end. Those additions and Moore stretching the field while letting Herbert sling it should get him well over 5,000 yards, and the Chargers are going to need plenty of touchdowns to keep pace in the AFC West.

Most Valuable Player numbers are on their way.

Pick: Justin Herbert (+1,000 at DraftKings)

Comeback Player of the Year

The requirements for Comeback Player of the Year are a little loose. You could be coming back from injury, coming back from obscurity, or just coming off a shit season.

The front runner to win the 2023 award is Buffalo safety Damar Hamlin (+250), who suffered a cardiac arrest on the field in Week 17. While his recovery and the outpouring of support are inspiring, his chances of getting back on the field are slim. 

Behind Hamlin is a quartet of quarterbacks (Trey Lance, Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson, and Matthew Stafford) and L.A. Rams WR Cooper Kupp — all below 10/1 returns. Then we come to Denver QB Russell Wilson at +1,000.

Wilson is one of the most polarizing people in the NFL. After signing for the moon following his trade from Seattle, his first season with the Broncos was… disappointing. On top of disastrous outputs, light was shone on Wilson’s diva attitude by both former and current teammates.

A humbling 2022 season and a new no-nonsense head coach in Sean Payton could snap Russ from his Mile High haze and get him back to playing at a championship caliber.

We did see flashes of Wilson’s brilliance towards the end of last season and unlike all those guys ahead of him on the Comeback Player of the Year board, he didn’t suffer a season-ending injury that could impact his performance in 2023. 

Wilson will be good to go to start training camp, diving into Payton’s playbook, which made New Orleans the No. 2 offense in EPA per play during his tenure in the Big Easy (minus the 2012 suspension). If he buys into Payton’s “More Us, Less Russ” philosophy, good things will happen.

Pick: Russell Wilson (+1,000 at DraftKings)

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