Week 1 is often a time to think optimistically, but I can't help but feel pretty darn pessimistic about the Bryce Young era in Carolina. The Panthers may have set themselves years backwards, and another potentially disastrous campaign begins with a trip to the rowdy Caesars Superdome and a date with the New Orleans Saints.
Find out why I think the Saints will prevail in a low-scoring opener while keeping Young from breaking out, and much, much more in my free NFL picks.
NFL Week 1 parlay picks
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Texans -2.5
Panthers vs. 
Saints Under 42.5
Dolphins -2.5
Steelers vs. 
Falcons Under 42.5Best Week 1 parlay
Texans -2.5
Dolphins -2.5 (alt. spread)
Steelers vs. Falcons Under 42.5
FanDuel has the best lines on the Houston Texans spread and the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons Under, so I bought a point to get under the key number of -3 with the Miami Dolphins there.
The Texans typically take care of business in the division, especially on the road, as Jason Logan pointed out in his Texans season preview. Houston is 8-1 SU and ATS as a visitor vs. AFC South opponents across the past three seasons. CJ Stroud & Co. are coming off an incredible season in which they finished 10-7 and won a playoff game.
Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts are an unknown quantity with quarterback Anthony Richardson showing oodles of promise before getting hurt in Week 5 and missing the rest of the season. Regardless of what this offense's potential might be under Richardson, I believe it'll take some time for this unit to jell and overcome a defense that ranked 24th by yards allowed per game last season.
The Dolphins may not be strong finishers but they know how to start strong, as we saw in 2023. Tua Tagovailoa is surrounded by some of the best all-around talent in the game in Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, and De’Von Achane. Any defense would be hard-pressed to stop Miami, especially a Jacksonville Jaguars unit that was 22nd in total defense a year ago.
Both the Steelers and Falcons are trotting out new-look offenses in 2024 after some stunted seasons on that front. The Kenny Pickett/Mason Rudolph combo is out in Pittsburgh with the eroding Russell Wilson getting the nod over Bears castaway Justin Fields.
Kirk Cousins is the new signal caller in Atlanta after the Desmond Ridder experiment flopped and Taylor Heinicke proved an inadequate replacement, but questions linger over the 36-year-old Cousins' ability to bounce back off Achilles surgery.
Even the most optimistic of Pittsburgh or Atlanta fans would have to admit these offenses will be a work in progress in Week 1. The Steelers' skill players are an uninspiring lot, and the Falcons' Bijan Robinson will be running into TJ Watt and a defense that's projected to be a Top-10 unit in 2024.
Best Week 1 SGP
Panthers vs. Saints Under 42.5 (alt. total)
Bryce Young Under 201.5 passing yards
Saints moneyline
Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints offense may be a subpar unit, but the Carolina Panthers' offense has even fewer redeeming qualities.
Bryce Young's rookie campaign was abysmal, as the former No. 1 overall pick authored a 2-14 record while completing below 60% of his passes and producing an 11-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. More alarming still was his paltry figure of 5.46 yards per pass, so despite his attempting nearly 33 passes per game, he still averaged only 179.8 passing yards per game.
His two starts vs. the Saints were the stuff of nightmares, as he was held to 153 yards in Week 2 and 137 yards in Week 12. He was sacked eight times over those two outings while going 35-for-69 (51%) through the air.
While the addition of Diontae Johnson this offseason will help, it won't be a miracle cure. Young simply didn't pass the eye test in 2023 and the numbers bear out that the Under is the way to go on his passing yards prop.
The Saints will do their part to ensure the Under hits, as they are 2-10 O/U vs. divisional opponents since 2022. I also believe Saints moneyline isn't all that onerous and can help round out a nicely-priced SGP.
Carr should have a bit more time to work against a Panthers defense sans Brian Burns (traded), and while Carolina's stoppers were the only reason the team wasn't a total laughingstock in 2024 (fourth in yards allowed per game), I believe the Saints won't have to put up many points to outscore the Panthers in Week 1.
If you don't have BetRivers, Caesars has the next-best odds of +310 but with a slightly better line of 204.5 passing yards on Young.
Not intended for use in MA.
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