There’s no bet type I like more than a 6-point teaser in the NFL. Betting spreads alone is hard enough, so I love the extra breathing room we get by slapping an additional six points to the spread in the NFL odds.
I’ve developed a modest following for my teaser content, so naturally, I’ll be doing an article dedicated to my favorite bet type every single week.
Here’s how it works: I’ll rank my five favorite teaser legs of each week, with the top two being my official teaser bet for that week’s games. Pretty simply.
When making my selections, I follow basic teaser strategy of crossing key numbers — most notably three and seven, which are the most common margins of victory in the NFL. We also don’t tease through zero around here.
With that out of the way, let’s get into it! Here are my Week 1 teaser rankings and my official NFL picks!
Week 1 NFL teaser picks
6-point teaser
- Giants (+9.5)
- Raiders (+10)
Picks made on September 7, at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Week 1 Teaser
Giants (+3.5 to +9.5) vs Cowboys
This is a beautiful spot at home for a New York Giants squad that played in a lot of tight games last season (13 of 17 games in 2022 were decided by one score).
This Dallas Cowboys team has also gotten off to poor starts the last few seasons. Dallas is 0-3 in its last three Week 1 games, including last year’s opener where it scored a pathetic three points on its home field vs. Tampa Bay.
Despite losing both games to Dallas last season, New York was competitive by keeping things within one score with the losses coming by seven and eight points. The Giants were also fantastic at playing up to the competition in 2022, going 10-2 ATS as an underdog with six outright wins.
Raiders (+4 to +10) vs Broncos
This is a bit of an ugly one, but the Las Vegas Raiders are going up against what could be an ugly opponent, and all they have to do is keep this game within double digits. The Raiders have dominated this matchup of late, winning six straight games and going 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Denver Broncos.
Both teams, of course, will have a much different look with Sean Payton running the show in Denver and Jimmy G under center for the Raiders. I don’t expect Payton to turn the Broncos into a top-tier team any time soon, while it’s flying under the radar that Garoppolo was having a great season for the 49ers before it was once again derailed by injuries.
I don’t think it’s debatable that the Raiders have the better offense, and I think they’ll be able to put up enough points to keep this one close.
Learn more about teaser betting with Covers’ teaser betting guide.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Best Week 1 teaser spots
- Giants vs. Cowboys (+3.5 to +9.5)
- Raiders vs. Broncos (+4 to +10)
- Steelers vs. 49ers (+2.5 to +8.5)
- Dolphins vs. Chargers (+3 to +9)
- Titans vs. Saints (+3 to +9)
The San Francisco 49ers can beat the Pittsburgh Steelers, but I don’t see them pulling away. That’s a tough defense and a tough environment for Brock Purdy to thrive in and I expect it to be a low-scoring game. Beating up on the Steelers in Pittsburgh isn’t easy to do as they’ve gone 15 straight games at home without a loss by more than seven points and have just two losses by 7+ points in their last 30 home games.
The Miami Dolphins get a re-do vs. the Los Angeles Chargers after showing up flat for their matchup last season and I think they can win this one outright. L.A.’s defense had an outlier performance in this matchup last season (they finished the year ranked 29th in yards per play allowed) and Mike McDaniel is smart enough to have his offense ready this time around. I also expect a good start from the Vic Fangio defense that should be able to get enough stops and force a turnover or two that’ll keep this game within reach for Miami.
The Tennessee Titans are the better-coached team in their season opener vs. a New Orleans Saints team that couldn’t get out of their own way in 2022. Yes, Tennessee’s season torpedoed off a cliff last season, but they were also ravaged by injuries. Let’s not forget the Titans have been an extremely competitive team under Mike Vrabel, with four winning seasons in his five years as the head coach. I think we could see a return to that form with the team healthy to open their season vs. a squad with a lot of question marks.
Best of luck with your teaser bets in Week 1, especially if you’re tailing mine! Catch you in Week 2 and we’ll do it again.
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