If you’re a regular reader of this weekly article, you might find yourself thinking, "What’s with this guy and Unders?"
Yes, I’ve been betting a lot of them and pointing to many Under trends in this article (as is the case again this week), and thankfully a lot of them have been hitting.
League-wide for the season, Unders are cashing at 61.5%. This is quite high for the midpoint of a season, and while I expect that number to dip in the second half, I’ll still gladly pound the Under when the NFL odds line up.
I’ve encountered a lot of people in real life and on social media who’ve told me they don’t like betting Unders, but I love them… I love watching that clock tick down, penalties on the offense, failed third down conversion, and beautiful punts. I’m weird like that.
If you’ve consumed even a little bit of betting content over the years, you’ve probably heard the expression "Life is too short to bet the Under." I get it, and if I don’t have action on the game, give me a shootout, but do you want to bet to have fun with your NFL picks, or do you want to bet to make money?
Give me boring bets that make money. That’s what fun is to me.
Anyways, let’s get to the good stuff! Here are my favorite NFL betting trends for every game this week!
Best NFL Week 10 betting trends
Panthers vs Bears
The trend: Carolina is 7-1 ATS in the first quarter
It all goes dramatically downhill from there as the Carolina Panthers have a full-game ATS record of 1-6-1 ATS but you need to respect their strong starts that have led to only being outscored in the first quarter once all season. They rank fourth in first-quarter points allowed with just 2.5 and have shut out three straight opponents in the opening quarter. They’re available at +0.5 on the first-quarter spread for this one.
See all Panthers vs Bears trends for Week 10.
Colts vs Patriots
The trend: The Patriots are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games
Why deep dive into stats and analytics when you can just fade the New England Patriots every week without much research whatsoever? They’re favored by 1.5 in this neutral-site game and there’s nothing to like about them. They have a reputation for having this great defense, yet three of their last six opponents dropped 31+ points on them. The offense, meanwhile, ranks 31st in scoring. The wheels have officially fallen off and the car is on fire.
See all Colts vs Patriots trends for Week 10.
Titans vs Buccaneers
The trend: These teams have combined to go Under in 10 of their last 12 games
Scoring patterns line up pretty strongly for an Under in this matchup, even with a total of 38.5. Tennessee road games are averaging just 35.2 combined points, while the Bucs’ home games have seen an average combined score of just 33.8. The teams are also second and third in red zone defense, meaning points might be very hard to come by.
See all Titans vs Buccaneers trends for Week 10.
49ers vs Jaguars
The trend: The 49ers are 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games after a bye
Maybe disregard the analysis of anyone who’s picking the San Francisco 49ers simply because they’re rested and coming off a bye. To be fair, most of these losses weren’t on Kyle Shanhan’s watch, but the team is still just 2-4 ATS after a bye since he took over. Regardless of the rest angle, this isn’t an easy spot as a three-point favorite on the road, across the country, against the Jacksonville Jaguars who’ve won and covered in five straight games.
See all 49ers vs Jaguars trends for Week 10.
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Browns vs Ravens
The trend: The Under is 12-2 in Baltimore’s last 14 home games
This trend has gotten a big boost this season thanks to the Baltimore Ravens holding three separate opponents to Under 10 points. The Cleveland Browns are on a stretch that’s seen them go Under in 10 of their last 15 games. The total for this matchup is on the low end at 37.5, but the teams have combined for just 31 and 16 total points in their last two matchups.
See all Browns vs Ravens trends for Week 10.
Saints vs Vikings
The trend: The Saints' road Under record + the Vikings' home Under record is 7-1
The New Orleans Saints defense has been great on the road this season where they lead with NFL in points allowed with just 16.4. This matchup also features an emerging Minnesota Vikings defense that's allowed 17 points or less in four of its last six games. This game has a total of 41 points, which is a number the Saints have gone Under in seven of their nine games.
See all Saints vs Vikings trends for Week 10.
Texans vs Bengals
The trend: The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog
The new Houston Texans regime led by DeMeco Ryans and CJ Stroud plays up to the competition. They were an outright winner in three of these four games, including as a 7.5-point underdog in Jacksonville. While the Cincinnati Bengals are heating up, it’s worth noting that the Texans rank higher in net yards per play both for the entire season and over each team’s last three games.
See all Texans vs Bengals trends for Week 10.
Packers vs Steelers
The trend: These teams have combined to go Under in 11 of their last 12 games
This looks like a marriage made in Under Heaven. During the above span, the average combined score in the Pittsburgh Steelers’ six games is just 35.1, while the Green Bay Packers’ six games saw an average of 35.3 combined points. The total for this game is 39 points, which is a number these teams have combined to stay under in 10 games this season.
See all Packers vs Steelers trends for Week 10.
Falcons vs Cardinals
The trend: The Cardinals are 2-16 SU in their last 18 home games
Arizona Cardinals season ticket holders should demand a refund! If ever there was a “buy-low” spot for the Atlanta Falcons, this is it as a -1.5-point favorite. This is the smallest underdog Arizona has been all season but even with Kyler Murray set to return, they’re still in the conversation for being the worst team in the league. Atlanta has been up and down all season and could be poised to be up again after being down the past two weeks.
See all Falcons vs Cardinals trends for Week 10.
Lions vs Chargers
The trend: The Chargers have gone Under the 2nd half game total in 13 of their last 18 games
The Los Angeles Chargers see a serious dropoff in scoring from the first to second half. In the first, they average 16.8 points, but in the second, that number drops to 8.4, which ranks 26th in the NFL. Combine this with the Detroit Lions seeing a dropoff of 8.5 points on the road compared to at home, and we have the makings of an interesting betting angle. The second-half total for this game is 24.5 points.
See all Lions vs Chargers trends for Week 10.
Giants vs Cowboys
The trend: The Cowboys are 11-1 ATS after a loss since the start of the 2021 season
Say what you will about the Dallas Cowboys, but they have been bounce-back betting kings over the past few seasons. They’re 2-0 ATS in this spot this season and this trend will be seriously put to the test as they’re favored by 16 points vs. Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants. Another trend has seen the Giants go Under their team total in eight of their nine games. Their team total for this game is the lowest I can recall seeing at 10.5 points.
See all Giants vs Cowboys trends for Week 10.
Commanders vs Seahawks
The trend: The Commanders have both covered the spread and gone Over their team total in four of five road games this season
Road warriors! The Washington Commanders have been showing up on the road where they average 4.9 more points per game while allowing exactly 10 fewer points per game. They’re a perfect 4-0 ATS in games where they were a road underdog. They find themselves as a six-point underdog with their team total at 19.5 points.
See all Commanders vs Seahawks trends for Week 10.
Jets vs Raiders
The trend: These teams have combined to go Under the second-half total in 14 of their 17 games this season
We’ve got a nice pairing for a low-scoring second half here with the teams ranking 25th and 29th in second-half scoring. This is actually a trend that goes back to last season for the New York Jets, who’ve gone Under the second-half total in 14 of their last 17 games. The second-half total for this game is 17.5 and, for what it’s worth, Jets second halves have averaged just 14.5 points this season.
See all Jets vs Raiders trends for Week 10.
Broncos vs Bills
The trend: The Bills have gone Over the first quarter total in 16 of their last 22 games
We might have a very nice pairing here as the Denver Broncos offense has had some strong opening quarters that have them ranked fourth in first-quarter points with 6.4. The Buffalo Bills defense has been getting off to some awful starts, as they’ve allowed double-digit points in the first quarter three times in their last five games. The first-quarter total for this matchup is 9.5 points.
See all Broncos vs Bills trends for Week 10.
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