We’ve reached the double-digit mark of the NFL season with Week 10 already upon us, and one league-wide trend from the first nine weeks stands out.
Road favorites have been on a nice tear, going 31-17-2 ATS, good enough for a 64.6% cover rate. They’ve been especially hot over the last month, covering in 71% of 31 games.
This week features seven road underdogs, which seems high considering just 14 games. Each game needs to be handicapped on an individual basis, but it’s worth keeping it on your radar as home-field advantage doesn’t hold the same advantage as it used to.
Here are my favorite NFL betting trends for every game on the board. Best of luck with your NFL picks in Week 10!
Best NFL Week 10 betting trends
Bengals vs. Ravens
The trend: The Ravens are 8-1 to the Over this season
Great offense plus bad defense is always a great recipe for an Over, and that’s pretty much been the story for the Baltimore Ravens this season. Their games have an average combined score of 55.7 points, which includes a 41-38 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. These teams have gone Over in five straight meetings and all things considered, it should come as no surprise that this game has a total of 53.5 points, the highest of the week.
See all Bengals vs. Ravens trends for Week 10.
Giants vs. Panthers
The trend: All nine Panthers games have gone Over the first-half total this season
This Carolina Panthers defense gets cooked in the first half of games where they’re allowing 20.9 points. There are 10 teams in the NFL that allow less than that for the entire game! This game takes place in Germany for some reason and has a first-half total of 20.5.
See all Giants vs. Panthers trends for Week 10.
Vikings vs. Jaguars
The trend: The Vikings are 7-1 against the first-quarter spread
Fast starts have been part of the Minnesota Vikings’ DNA this season. They’re allowing just 1.3 first-quarter points per game while averaging 9.0, the best mark in the NFL. The Jacksonville Jaguars are averaging a pathetic 2.2 first-quarter points, which ranks 28th. The Vikings are favored by 1.5 on the first-quarter spread.
See all Vikings vs. Jaguars trends for Week 10.
Broncos vs. Chiefs
The trend: The Chiefs are 17-1 SU in their last 18 games against the Broncos
Thinking of placing a teaser bet this week? Well, getting the Kansas City Chiefs down to -2 looks like an ideal spot against an opponent they’ve absolutely owned. The Chiefs are on a great roll right now, with 14 straight wins going back to last season.
See all Broncos vs. Chiefs trends for Week 10.
Falcons vs. Saints
The trend: The Saints are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog
It’s a sad state of affairs in New Orleans right now, and things could get even more depressing with the ascending Atlanta Falcons coming to town. The Saints just can’t stop the bleeding, as they’ve now lost seven straight games, which includes getting their doors blown off a few times. Atlanta is favored by four.
See all Falcons vs. Saints trends for Week 10.
Patriots vs. Bears
The trend: The Bears are 4-0 ATS at home and have gone Over their team total in all four home games
The Chicago Bears have been great at home but are a joke on their road, where they’ve gone 0-3-1 with 16 points or less in all four games. They’re favored by six in this game and it could be a good spot to jump on them. They’ve made a habit of beating up on bad teams this season and the Patriots could be the perfect opponent to bounce back against.
See all Patriots vs. Bears trends for Week 10.
49ers vs. Buccaneers
The trend: These teams are a combined 12-5 to the Over this season
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter this game on a six-game Over tear, with the games having an average combined score of 62.6 points. Each offense has been efficient at moving the ball, with these teams ranking second and sixth in both yards per play and third-down conversion rate. This game has a total of 50.5.
See all 49ers vs. Buccaneers trends for Week 10.
Steelers vs. Commanders
The trend: The Steelers are 7-0 SU in their last seven games following a bye
Mike Tomlin has been taking full advantage of extra rest. Pittsburgh’s defense has been especially strong in these games by holding six of the seven opponents to 18 or fewer points. They’ll have their hands full against a Washington Commanders team that’s undefeated at home, but if you think we’re in for a close game, Steelers at +2.5 could be a good look.
See all Steelers vs. Commanders trends for Week 10.
Bills vs. Colts
The trend: The Bills have gone Under in 16 of their last 21 road games
This includes four out of five games this season, with all five games failing to cross 45 combined points. This Colts offense really lacks firepower, regardless of who the quarterback has been, as they’ve now scored 20 or fewer points in four straight games. This game has a total of 47.
See all Bills vs. Colts trends for Week 10.
Titans vs. Chargers
The trend: The Chargers are 7-1 to the Under this season
If you’re a regular reader, you know I’d be coming right back to this. It’s been rock-bottom scoring in Los Angeles Chargers games this season, as they have an average combined score of just 32.5. This might be a marriage made in Under Heaven, with the Tennessee Titans ranking 27th in scoring. The total for this game is the lowest of the week at 38, and yes, I still like the Under.
See all Titans vs. Chargers trends for Week 10.
Eagles vs. Cowboys
The trend: The Cowboys have allowed an average of 41.75 points in their last four home games
Talk about embarrassing. This trend goes back to last season’s playoffs, where they got stomped by the Packers. Dallas easily ranks last in yards allowed per play on their home field, and they’re running into the Eagles at the wrong time as they're starting to heat up. Surely, the Eagles won’t be eager to kick Dallas when they’re down, right? Philly’s team total sits at 24.5.
See all Eagles vs. Cowboys trends for Week 10.
Jets vs. Cardinals
The trend: The Jets are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 road games
The New York Jets don’t travel well. This has been on full display this season when they’ve gotten stomped by the 49ers and Steelers while also losing in New England as a 7-point favorite. The Arizona Cardinals have some serious momentum going with three straight wins and are favored by a single point.
See all Jets vs. Cardinals trends for Week 10.
Lions vs. Texans
The trend: The Texans have gone Under in 17 of their last 23 regular season games
Back to the well after an enjoyable Under win last week against the Jets. Houston is on a 7-1 Under roll coming into this game, while Detroit’s defense has been stepping it up on the road with just 16.3 points allowed per game. The total sits at 49, which is a mark every Houston home game has stayed below this season.
See all Lions vs. Texans trends for Week 10.
Dolphins vs. Rams
The trend: Miami is 1-14 SU and 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games as an underdog
The Miami Dolphins, quite simply, do not play up to the competition. Sure, Tua being back gives them a nice boost, but Kupp and Nacua being back in the lineup has the Los Angeles Rams looking like a playoff contender again. Making matters worse, Miami’s defense has been getting demolished, and they’ve looked really bad in primetime games this season, losing to the Bills by 21 and the Titans by 19. L.A. is favored by a point.
See all Dolphins vs. Rams trends for Week 10.
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