NFL Week 10 Bet Now, Bet Later: Grab Ravens -5.5 While It's Still There

You know we’re in the thick of the NFL betting season when the weeks hit double digits, and that’s exactly where we’re at with Week 10 odds on the board as we officially cross the halfway mark of the campaign.

At this point in the season, oddsmakers’ power ratings are humming with half a season’s worth of data. That means NFL odds are tighter than ever, so getting the best number for your wagers is vital.

I look at the opening NFL Week 10 spreads and Over/Under totals and tell you which ones to bet now and which you should wait to bet later.

Week 10 bet now, bet later picks

• Browns at Ravens (-5.5): Bet Now
• Packers (+3) at Steelers: Bet Later
• Commanders at Seahawks (Over 44.5): Bet Now
• 49ers at Jaguars (Over 44.5): Bet Later

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Browns at Ravens (-5.5): Bet Now

The Baltimore Ravens opened just below the key number of six points for this AFC North grudge match and that spread is climbing quickly, with many books jumping from Baltimore -5.5 to -6.

The Ravens bounced the Cleveland Browns 28-3 as 1-point road faves back in Week 4 with Cleveland starting rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The Browns will have Deshaun Watson under center in Week 10 (maybe, who knows now?) but he’s not exactly setting scoreboards on fire.

Baltimore rides a four-game winning streak and ranks No. 1 in EPA per play and No. 3 in EPA allowed per play during this span. The Ravens have also been insanely strong inside M&T Stadium. Outside of an overtime loss to Indianapolis in Week 3, the Ravens have won their other three homestands by margins of 34, 32, and 16 points.

These AFC North grudge matches can be competitive but I’m buying up Baltimore under the key number and betting on what is currently the best team in the NFL at -5.5.

Best odds to bet Ravens -5.5 right now

Packers (+3) at Steelers: Bet Later

The Green Bay Packers finally snapped their four-game losing skid with a 20-3 win over the Stafford-less Rams at Lambeau Field and now travel to the Steel City as field goal underdogs in Week 10.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a victory over Tennessee last Thursday and have enjoyed a mini-bye ahead of this run-in with Green Bay. We’re seeing Steelers -3.5 bubble up at some sharper books on Sunday night.

The extra half-point hook could be the tipping point, however, as Pittsburgh has infamously been outgained in all eight of its games so far. The defense is definitely keeping it together as the Steelers offense averages less than 17 points per game and sits near the bottom in all the advanced metrics.

Putting your faith in the Packers may need more convincing than an extra half-point tick, but the other shoe has got to drop for Pittsburgh at some point. If you’re in the mood for cheese this week, let this spread age a bit before taking a bite.

Commanders at Seahawks (Over 44.5): Bet Now

The Washington Commanders offense has looked much sharper the past two weeks. It put up 31 points on the Eagles in Week 8 and scored 20 points against the Patriots while leaving money on the table with a 1-for-4 day in the red zone in Week 9. 

Quarterback Sam Howell has thrown 325 and 397 yards in those games and is getting rid of the ball much quicker, with just four total sacks in those two outings compared to an average of 5.7 sacks taken over the first seven games.

As for the Commanders defense, it’s still buckling for big gains against legit opposition and had much of its top talent gutted during the trade deadline. Washington is 27th in EPA allowed per play and getting roasted by opposing passers, now facing a solid Seattle Seahawks air attack.  

This team will be coming to the finish line on a very challenging stretch of schedule, crossing the country for back-to-back road games, which will also serve as its fourth road game in five weeks, and fifth road game in seven weeks.

The Seahawks defense just got rolled for 37 points in the road loss at Baltimore. This unit has been OK but still struggles in key areas like third-down defense and inside the red zone. Seattle has held back some pop-gun offenses and crap QBs but gets roasted whenever it measures up against capable passers.

This total opened as low as 44 points and is climbing to 45 points on Sunday night. This one feels like a potential shootout to me. Bet the lowest number you can find now.

Best odds to bet Commanders vs Seahawks Over 44.5 right now

49ers at Jaguars (Over 44.5) Bet Later

A struggling offense takes on a stingy defense. Sounds like an Under to me, right?

Books opened this intriguing non-conference clash with a total as high as 45 points on Sunday night, but most books are staying on the lower end at 44.5 Over/Under. I want to see if this total continues tipping downward before coming back on the Over. 

The San Francisco 49ers offense has scored 17 points in each of its last three games — all losses — and faces a Jacksonville Jaguars team riding a five-game winning streak. The Jaguars rank No. 3 in EPA allowed per play during this stretch and have held those foes to an average of just over 16 points per outing.

But if we look at the heads on the wall in the Jags’ trophy room, we find some feeble quarterback competition on this streak. Jacksonville defeated Kenny Pickett/Mitchell Trubisky, Derek Carr, Gardner Minshew, Desmond Ridder, and a sleep-deprived Josh Allen in London. 

Both teams had a bye in Week 9, giving Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan time to tinker with his dynamic offense and prep for Mike Caldwell’s defense. It also allowed San Francisco to rest the weary legs of Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and the 49ers’ offensive line.

While Jacksonville’s QB strength of schedule has been shit, those poor passers are complemented by some solid defenses. And the Jags have put up points on those stingy stop units. They rank No. 9 in EPA per play since Week 4, including fifth in EPA per dropback.

I’m going to pump the breaks on a bet right now and see if this total trims later in the week.

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