Shopping for NFL odds is a lot like shopping for a tasty cheese. Stay with me now, even you lactose-intolerant folks.
Sometimes you want a nice young cheese that melts quickly, gets all stretchy, and complements whatever food it’s paired with. And sometimes, you want a harder, aged cheese with a little more funk in the trunk.
The same strategy is in place for betting NFL Week 10 odds.
Depending on your appetite, there are some hot and gooey spreads and totals you’ll want to devour quickly and bet now. Then there are lines you’ll want to wait on, allowing the market to age them a little more, giving them extra flavor — and extra points — later in the week.
Here are my “Bet Now, Bet Later” lines for Week 10. Now, who wants a grilled cheese?
Week 10 bet now, bet later picks
- Falcons (-3) at Saints: Bet Now
- Lions at Texans (+4.5): Bet Later
- Bengals at Ravens (Over 51.5): Bet Now
- Steelers at Commanders (Under 44.5): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Atlanta Falcons (-3) at New Orleans Saints: Bet Now
Nothing scares away action like a loss to the Carolina Panthers. The New Orleans Saints got the kiss of death this Sunday, losing an ugly one to Carolina, and now face a red-hot Atlanta Falcons team in Week 10.
Atlanta edged New Orleans 26-24 in Week 3 but is in a much better place at this point in the season. And it’s safe to say the Saints are in a darker one. While the Falcons have rattled off wins in five of their last six, NOLA drags a seven-game losing skid back to the Superdome.
Both teams watched their star receivers leave Week 9 with an injury, but given Drake London suffered a hip injury and Chris Olave was carted off with a concussion, the chances of London coming back for Week 10 are much higher. While he didn’t return from the injury, he was on an exercise bike after suffering what appears to be a bruised hip.
Some books opened Atlanta as short as -2.5 and that last about five minutes. If you’re buying into the Dirty Birds, grab them now before this spread comes off the key number and flirts with -4 later in the week.
Best odds to bet Falcons -3 right now
Detroit Lions at Houston Texans (+4.5): Bet Later
The Detroit Lions were already among the most public bets this season and will be extremely popular after going into Green Bay and DDT’ing the Packers on their own turf.
Next up is a trip to Houston for Sunday Night Football. Detroit opened as a 3-point road favorite and the spread trucked through the key number, hit -3.5, and rolled on through -4 with books as high as -4.5 in a matter of minutes after the odds hit on Sunday night.
Pushing that point spread isn’t just Detroit's popularity but also the nasty stink a loss to the Jets leaves on the Houston Texans.
Houston has a mini-bye to get right and get healthy, with WR Nico Collins expected back and Will Anderson getting added time to recover from an ankle sprain. There are also some other key pieces needing that added break that playing on Thursday allots.
If you’re a contrarian and subscribe to "fading the public," then this is the game for you. Hold on and wait for Houston — like until Sunday night. At Texans +4.5, we’re trending toward the dead number of +5 and the line will move fast through that.
Given the contrasting market opinions, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this spread flirt with Texans +6 when you factor all the action running into SNF along with all surviving parlays and teasers hinging on Detroit.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens(Over 51.5): Bet Now
Thursday Night Football is set up for a fun AFC North grudge match between two high-flying offenses and two sub-par defenses.
The Cincinnati Bengals continue to cash in for Over bettors, improving to 6-3 O/U after a 41-24 win over Las Vegas in Week 9. The Bengals rank among the most explosive attacks in the land but have to put up all those points to make up for a dog-shit defense that has given up 24 points or more in six of those nine outings.
The Baltimore Ravens are right there with Cincy in scoring prowess, hanging some serious numbers on the board since snapping out their two-week slumber to start the season. Baltimore is 8-1 O/U after a one-sided 41-10 win over Denver in Week 9, and while the Broncos managed only 10 points, they still had 319 total yards and left points on the table with a 1-for-4 day in the red zone.
These classic foes clashed back in Week 5 with the AFC North member combining for 76 points in regulation, before Baltimore won with a field goal in overtime. That total closed 48.5 O/U and this one is just a FG higher at 51.5 points. I’m taking the Over now.
Best odds to bet 51.5 right now
Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders (Under 44.5): Bet Later
I’m very interested to see where this total goes later in the week. The Washington Commanders have been one of the most popular bets in the NFL, and so has the Over in their contests.
Those two things go hand-in-hand and anyone wagering on Washington to cover the spread in Week 10 probably plays the Over as well, as the Commies won’t win a defensive battle with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Pittsburgh is coming off the bye and boasts one the best defenses in the land, ranked Top 10 in EPA allowed per play and Defensive DVOA. While the Steelers offense has sprung to life with Russell Wilson under center, the last thing Mike Tomlin wants is to get into a shootout with Washington.
So, who will get their way in Week 10?
Well, the Commanders have played some horrible defensive teams en route to their surprise 7-2 SU start. However, the one respectable stop unit on the sked was Chicago, and it limited Washington to just 18 points (and that’s with that wild Hail Mary).
FYI: Tomlin is money as an underdog for his career, going 57-31-4 ATS (64%) when getting points in the regular season. Pittsburgh is also 36-55-1 Over/Under in those games as a pup (60% Unders).
With Washington money likely coming from the betting masses, I’ll wait and buy back the total if it ticks up from the opener of 44.5 O/U.
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