With the calendar now well into November and teams peeking ahead to the postseason race, scanning the schedule should be part of your weekly NFL betting routine.
Push pause on your advanced modeling and deep-dive analytics, and try to put yourself in the cleats of teams as they navigate the Week 10 grind. There you can find valuable situational angles – AKA spot bets – that can be that final edge you need to best the bookies.
Here are my top NFL spot bets for Week 10: letdown, lookahead and schedule.
Letdown Spot: Denver Broncos (-2.5) vs Philadelphia Eagles
In a week with plenty of pointspread shockers, the Broncos’ 30-16 lambasting of Dallas was among the most stunning. For one, Denver scored 30 frickin’ points – the high-water mark for this offense in 2021. And for another, the Broncos pretty much shutout the Cowboys' No. 1 ranked offense, giving up 16 points in garbage time and limiting Dak Prescott & Co. to less than 300 yards.
Another NFC East member waits in Week 10, with the Eagles making the climb up the mountain as nearly 3-point underdogs in Denver. Philadelphia has only one win in its last four games but has played tough on the road (+7.2 average point margin – seventh highest) and is a tough team to scheme for, with a heavy RPO playbook and a rushing attack building momentum.
Not only could Denver fall into a primed letdown spot after Week 9’s big win in Big D, but could also get caught daydreaming of down time with a much-needed bye in Week 11 for this injury-plagued roster. If you are fading Denver in this potential letdown, wait until this spread moves to Eagles +3 at your respective sportsbooks. Some shops are already at Eagles +3 while others have Denver -2.5 (-120), with that move to three pending.
Lookahead Spot: Dallas Cowboys (-9) vs Atlanta Falcons
It’s nothing. Just one bad game. No need to panic. That’s what the Cowboys are telling themselves after laying a rotten egg against Denver at home in Week 9.
Dallas had just 14 first downs, was 5 for 11 on third downs, and touched the football for only 18:48 in TOP in the loss to the Broncos. And the final score looks much better than how the game really played out, with Dallas being held off the scoreboard for 56 minutes. But the remedy for those offensive woes is en route in Week 10, with the Falcons’ floundering defense up next.
Atlanta is dismal defensively, ranked 25th in EPA per play (+0.076) but if Dallas looks past the Falcons and to a sexy showdown at Arrowhead against Chiefs in Week 11, that “one bad game” could snowball into something worse. Atlanta has won three of its last four games and four of its last six. This passing offense is no joke either, as it’s starting to gain traction under new head coach Arthur Smith, posting an EPA per dropback of +0.230 since Week 5 – No. 5 in that span.
Schedule Spot: Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) at Miami Dolphins
A short turnaround to play on the road for Thursday Night Football is a pain in the ass for any team, but more so for the Ravens. This midweek march to Miami will actually be Baltimore’s first away game in 39 days and just its fourth roadie of the season.
The last time the Ravens played the role of visitors was at Denver on October 3, followed by a stretch of four in a row inside M&T Bank Stadium along with a bye in Week 8. Baltimore won that matchup with the Broncos 23-7 but didn’t look great in the other two road tilts, losing at Vegas in OT in Week 1 and needing the NFL’s longest field goal to escape Detroit with a win back in Week 3.
Granted, those games were a lifetime ago in football years and the Ravens are much healthier. But this is still a challenging schedule spot for Baltimore which has enjoyed the good life for the past month, scoring 31 points or more in three of the last four home games. On the road, the Ravens are averaging just 23 points per outing.
