The touchdown market has become one of the most popular and potentially profitable props in the NFL betting world. Each week, we’re going to throw down four to five units as we try to uncover some of the best weekly NFL TD props and dig into the matchups that surround them.
Week 10 has us looking at a fringe tight end touchdown that is mispriced, a pair of rushing TDs that also offer great value and a Tampa Bay receiver TD prop that will likely drop in price as injury news rolls out.
Without further ado:
NFL Week 10 touchdown props
- Geoff Swaim anytime TD
- Jordan Howard anytime TD
- Michael Carter anytime TD
- Mike Evans anytime TD and 2+ TDs
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for NFL Week 10, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:
USA: Sign up with Caesars and get your first bet matched up to $1,001! Claim Now
Canada: Get a 100%-matched sign-up bonus (up to $400) at BetVictor. Claim Now
NFL Week 10 TD props
Geoff Swaim anytime TD (+750 at bet365)
Tennessee’s Geoff Swaim has touchdowns in back-to-back games as the Titans' tight end has emerged as a legitimate passing option for this new offense. Swaim has finished second in team targets over the last two weeks, and with the new running game sputtering and facing a Top-3 rush defense in New Orleans, perhaps his usage could increase in Week 10.
Swaim has eight catches over his last two games and has received three of his nine targets in the red zone. His 0.34 targets per route run over the last two games is tied for the team lead.
The main selling point for this fringe TD, however, is the price, or more importantly, the discrepancy in the price. Swaim hit a +1,200 TD in Week 8 and +500 in Week 9. Most books have his Week 10 TD price in the +275 to +500 range, but bet365 is posting a +750 line.
At that price, it’s worth 0.55 units to win 4.125 units.
Jordan Howard anytime TD (+240 at bet365)
Last week, we missed the Boston Scott TD because Jordan Howard was given six rushes in the red zone, which makes a total of 14 RZ carries over the last two games. Since returning to the lineup, Howard has three rushing TDs and has totaled 128 yards on 29 rushes.
Miles Sanders is still on the IL, so this will be Howard’s backfield for Week 10. He saw his snaps jump from 16 in Week 8 to 23 in Week 9 and out-rushed Scott 17-10 in carries last week.
The Eagles have run the ball more than any other team in the league over the last two weeks and have an incredible 85 rushes to just 33 passes over that stretch.
Denver is still a tough defense but is much easier to run against than pass. The Broncos sit fourth in defensive dropback success rate, but rank 23rd in defensive rush success rate.
Howard is paying anywhere from +210 to +240, which is a great price after this TD prop paid +230 last week and his role in the offense has expanded since. Scott was +240 last week to score. We’re taking this anytime TD at +240 and laying down 1.25 units to win three units.
Michael Carter anytime TD (+200 at DraftKings)
The Buffalo Bills will be without middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds this week versus the New York Jets. Edmunds ranks as the No. 8 LB versus the run, per Pro Football Focus. The Bills’ defense pitched a TD shutout last week, but the Dolphins and Titans combined to score five rushing TDs versus the Bills over their previous two games. New York also had a rushing TD in each meeting last season.
Michael Carter had 24 touches and a score in Week 8 with QB Mike White under center and added 88 total yards last week in a negative game script, and a QB in Josh Johnson who did not want to check it down.
With White at QB, Carter should be game script-proof as the young signal-caller has no problem throwing underneath to his running back. Back-up RB Ty Johnson plays the hurry-up role, and some third downs, and isn’t a threat to steal carries.
This game could be a lot closer than the spread is indicating as the Bills offense has struggled in back-to-back weeks against inferior opponents in the Dolphins and Jaguars.
Carter’s TD prop ranges from +130 to +200. It closed at +160 last week and +200 in Week 8. Carter is the lowest-priced Jets player for a TD but at +200, that’s a one-unit play to win two for us.
Mike Evans anytime TD (-105 at bet365) and 2+ TDs (+500 at DraftKings)
The Buccaneers enter their Week 10 matchup versus Washington as 9.5-point favorites. Washington is giving up 2.5 passing TDs per game on the year and choosing between Antonio Brown (+110), Mike Evans (-105) and Chris Godwin (-105) might seem like a coin flip some weeks, but not in Week 10.
Antonio Brown has not practiced this week and was in a walking boot on Tuesday. Chris Godwin did not practice Thursday and is also on the wrong side of questionable. Hell, Rob Gronkowski is dealing with back spasms and the team recently signed TE Darren Fells to the practice squad, which could be an indication of Gronk’s availability. Mike Evans is the healthiest pass-catcher on the team right now and offers great value on his TD price in a plus matchup.
Evans has TDs in three of his last four games and four in his last two games. He's has been great in the red zone, and if Gronkowski is out, Evans will be the main man inside the 20. Evans has 13 targets in the RZ this year and has turned that into five scores.
If all three other pass-catchers are ruled out, this Evans TD price will likely plummet. Washington allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing WRs, which is great news for Evans and his -105 TD price. We’re throwing down 1.55 units on this TD and putting another 0.5 units on his 2+ TD at +500.
Season to date: 13-24 SU +4.47 units
