In a world of advanced analytics, computer models, and soulless gambling bots, sometimes the best edge is the one that can’t be quantified.
Situational handicapping – AKA spot bets – is a little “old school” in the modern sports betting universe... but much like flip phones and a cable subscription, it gets the job done.
We run down this week’s NFL slate and see how the schedule could impact the outcomes. Keep these NFL spot bets in mind when sizing up the Week 11 odds.
Letdown Spot: Washington Commanders at Houston Texans
The Washington Commanders are coming off their biggest win in years after upsetting the undefeated Eagles as 11-point road underdogs on Monday Night Football. Washington now has a short week to come down from that high before heading to Houston in Week 11.
The contrast in opponent would be enough to spark the “letdown” warning lights, but after a dominating 32-21 victory, in which the Commanders controlled the football for more than 40 minutes, there are sirens and loud alarms sounding.
Washington opened as 3-point road chalk and with the juice climbing on that spread, will likely close higher than a field goal favorite against the 1-7-1 SU Houston Texans. This is rare air for this franchise – whatever their name was at the time – as Washington has been a road fave of -3 or more just 10 times going back to 2010 (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS).
Adding to that potential letdown is a thick layer of “schedule spot”, as this quick turnaround to Texas is Washington’s second straight road game and third away tilt in the past four weeks.
The cherry on top of this tricky spot bet is the looming quarterback controversy, with Carson Wentz expected to be activated for Week 11. Backup Taylor Heinicke has helped lead the Commanders to a 3-1 mark in his time under center but is statistically just as blah as Wentz.
Soooo many distractions for D.C.
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Schedule Spot: San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
The NFL heads south of the border for a Week 11 showcase in Mexico City when the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers clash for an NFC West war.
While this game is a neutral-site Monday matchup in Estadio Azteca, Arizona could be feeling out of sorts more than its divisional rival. This game will be Arizona’s second straight game away from home (losing a true home game to the international series) and third in four weeks.
Adding to the travel grind is the altitude in Mexico City, which sits 7,200 feet above sea level. To put that into perspective, Mile High Stadium in Denver is at just 5,279 feet and Colorado Springs, where Kyle Shanahan and the Niners are training this week, is 5,994 feet above sea level.
Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury is opting to stay in Arizona all week and treat this as a regular road trip, passing on adapting to the energy-sapping altitude that awaits in Mexico City. The Cardinals will do so with a thinning roster as well, with numerous injuries on offense including QB Kyler Murray being day-to-day with a hamstring injury.
In contrast, San Francisco is about as healthy as it’s been all season after enjoying a bye in Week 9 and a win over the L.A. Chargers at home Sunday night. Arizona doesn’t get its break until Week 13 and has to play the Chargers on a short week next Sunday.
¡Ay, caramba!
Schedule Spot: Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
I usually have a “lookahead spot” on the list, but Week 11 isn’t presenting any valid candidates. So instead, I’m highlighting a quirky schedule spot for the Denver Broncos this Sunday.
Denver welcomes the shell-shocked Las Vegas Raiders to Mile High for what will be the Broncos’ lone home game in a span of 48 days.
The last time Denver played in front of a Colorado crowd was a Week 7 loss to the Jets on October 23. From there, the team played in London in Week 8, had a bye in Week 9, and played at Tennessee in Week 10.
Following Sunday’s home date against Las Vegas, the Broncos have back-to-back road games on the East Coast — at Carolina and Baltimore — before hosting Kansas City on December 11. And with the franchise floundering at 3-6 SU, a friendly environment is something Russell Wilson & Co. can’t afford to waste.
The Raiders seem ripe for the picking, losing their third straight game in Week 10 at the hands of the Jeff Saturday-led Colts. This march up the mountain to play in the thin air is Vegas’ third road game in the past four weeks for a team that hasn’t won away from Sin City this season, lugging a -7.8 margin as a visitor (fifth worst).
Chin up you sad-sack Silver and Black fans, at least the weather is supposed to be nice in Denver this weekend.
