Week 12 NFL Parlay Picks: Ravens Run Up the Score in L.A.

At this point in the NFL season, every club has played at least 10 games, giving handicappers a solid baseline to assess. Yet, there can still be some statistical anomalies courtesy of a relatively small sample size.

Case in point: the globetrotting Tennessee Titans, who will play only their fourth true home game of 2023-24. 

Overarching trends are the theme of this week's free NFL parlay picks as I rely on the Eagles' rock-solid play at home, the Ravens' scoring proclivity, and the rise of C.J. Stroud, who doesn't seem to be getting enough credit against a Jaguars team that bettors might be backing based on preseason expectations.

I've parsed through the Week 12 odds so you don't have to. Join me as I outline my favorite NFL odds selections this Sunday.

Week 12 NFL parlay picks

• Titans ML + Eagles -3 + Ravens team total Over 25.5 = +431
• Texans +1.5 + C.J. Stroud o269.5 pass yds + D. Schultz o40.5 rec yds = +440

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best Week 12 parlay pick

Titans moneyline

Eagles -3

Ravens team total Over 25.5

+431 at FanDuel

It may seem hard to believe, but the Titans are undefeated at Nissan Stadium in 2023 and will be playing just their fourth game of the year at the venue. Tennessee lost to the Ravens as the designated home team in London back in Week 6.

The Titans didn't dispatch any world-beaters in those home games, but beating the Chargers, Bengals, and Falcons deserves at least some credit. The Panthers are clearly worse than those three teams, so I think Will Levis & Co. can get themselves off the mat after dropping three straight road affairs. I'm not eager to give over a field goal with Tennessee against anybody, so I'll just start with the Titans moneyline in a parlay that will still pay over 4/1.

Speaking of home cooking, I'm looking at the Eagles to stay perfect at "The Linc" when they host the Bills on Sunday afternoon. Philly has knocked off Dallas, Miami, Washington, and Minnesota at home thus far in 2023. Of course, the Eagles have looked great regardless of venue this year, with the Chiefs serving as their latest victims at Arrowhead Stadium.

Philly loves to run the ball, as they're fifth in rushing touchdowns (15) and eighth in rushing yards per game (128.1). The Eagles should gouge a soft Buffalo rush defense (16th) early and often and keep the ball out of Josh Allen's hands. 

Finally, rather than laying points or take a pricier moneyline, I'll back the Ravens to fly past their team total on Sunday night.

Baltimore has had some hiccups when it comes to closing out competitive games this year, but win or lose, Lamar Jackson & Co. have put up more than their fair share of points. The Ravens have scored at least 31 points in five straight contests and could make it six straight vs. a Chargers defense that's 10th-worst in football with 23.8 ppg allowed. That number jumps to 27.3 if you exclude their games vs. the pitiful Jets and Bears offenses.

Best Week 12 SGP

Texans +1.5

C.J. Stroud Over 269.5 passing yards

Dalton Schultz Over 40.5 receiving yards

+440 at BetRivers

I don't think the Jaguars have any business being road favorites over the Texans, so I'll gladly grab the 1.5 points with Houston. 

Houston not only beat Jacksonville on the road this year, but the Texans clobbered the Jags 37-17. C.J. Stroud put himself on an Offensive Rookie of the Year odds trajectory by carving up Jacksonville's pass defense for 20 completions and 280 yards on 30 attempts with two touchdowns.

Stroud has been trusted more and more through the air as the year has gone on, and he's rewarded his coaches' confidence by completing 80 of his last 118 throws (67.8%) while tossing eight touchdowns. Yes, he threw three interceptions against the Cardinals in a 21-16 win that shouldn't have been that close, but considering how careful he had been with the football before Week 11, I'm not counting on a repeat performance this Sunday. 

Stroud is the main reason why I'm confident in the Texans winning and covering, so it's only natural to throw his passing yardage prop into a same-game parlay. The 269.5 number is elevated for a rookie, but he's crossed that number six times on the season, including against the Jags in their earlier meeting. Stroud has averaged 387.3 yards through the air over his last three contests, so facing Jacksonville's fourth-worst pass defense could set up a solid "ladder" opportunity on his passing props.

Meanwhile, Texans tight end Dalton Schultz should account for a solid chunk of Stroud's passing yardage. Schultz went for only nine yards vs. Jacksonville in Week 3, but the game logs show that it took time for Stroud and Schultz to develop a rapport.

The 40.5 line looks too low considering Schultz has cleared it in five of his last seven games. The Panthers and Cardinals, of all teams, held Schultz below the mark, but those clubs are both Top 5 in yards allowed to tight ends despite their poor records. The Jaguars are sixth-worst by tight end yardage allowed.

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