The touchdown market has become one of the most popular and potentially profitable props in the NFL betting world. Each week, we’re going to throw down three to four units as we try to uncover some of the best weekly NFL TD props and dig into the matchups that surround them.
It’s the Turkey leftover addition of the TD prop train. We had our eighth profitable go at it last week, and are looking at a couple of longshot TEs as well as a hopeful early-down RB and de facto No. 1 receiver in Week 12.
Without further ado:
NFL Week 12 touchdown props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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NFL Week 12 TD props
Geoff Swaim anytime TD (+800 at BetMGM)
Tennessee is in a tough spot Sunday as 7-point underdogs, and without Julio Jones and possibly A.J. Brown, who was a DNP at practice on Sunday. This is also a team without a running game who will likely be playing catch-up Sunday at Gillette Stadium.
Anthony Firkser operated as the No. 1 pass-catching tight end last week because Geoff Swaim was out. Swaim got in a full practice on Thursday and looks like all systems go for a matchup versus the Pats’ No. 4 success rate defense.
Swaim had four catches in three straight games before going down, which included a pair of touchdowns. This team is struggling for any ounce of offensive ability and Swaim could be a top passing option if Brown sits. His 0.35 targets per route run is the best mark on the team since Week 8.
The Titans could feature an offense of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Chester Rodgers, D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard. Ryan Tannehill had a great rapport with Swaim in Weeks 8 to 10 and will be looking his way Sunday as the Titans could struggle to move the ball and could go pass-heavy earlier than they’d like to.
He opened at +800 at BetMGM and +450 at DraftKings after +320 versus Houston last week before being ruled out. It’s a half unit to win four units.
Chris Godwin anytime TD (+105 at DraftKings)
The Colts sit 27th in success rate versus the pass and give up more TDs to opposing wide receivers than any other team in football at 1.5 per match. This week, they’ll have to deal with the pass-heavy Buccaneers, who pass more than any other team.
The Bucs played on Monday, so it’s a quick turnaround for Bruce Arians’ club. That could be in the favor of receiver Chris Godwin, who finished MNF at 6/65/1 and has a TD in three of his last four games.
Mike Evans was sidelined at Thursday’s practice as it seems he is dealing with a back problem that he played through against the Giants. Antonio Brown was also DNP on Thursday and is highly questionable.
Godwin’s TD price opened at +105 at DraftKings and this is the best price we’ve seen his TD prop at since Week 6. If both Evans and Brown sit, this number could close near -130.
Godwin has 13 catches on 19 red-zone targets, which are both team-highs. He’s turned those into four TDs. The Colts have the league’s No. 1 success rate against the run, and Brady and the offense average 43.2 passes per game, tossing the ball 46 times in Week 11 despite leading for the majority of the game.
We're dropping 1.5 units to win 1.575 units on Godwin, who could be the de facto No. 1 receiving option Sunday.
Tevin Coleman anytime TD (+230 at BetMGM)
The Jets have moved from +3 to +2.5, as the market is starting to warm up to the idea that Zach Wilson and the Jets can play competitively against the Texans and their 32nd-ranked defense by success rate.
No. 1 RB Michael Carter is dealing with a high-ankle sprain and has been ruled out. He’ll be replaced by RBs Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman. Coleman took five carries to Johnson’s one after Carter exited, and Johnson is more of the team’s third-down back.
The Texans give up 0.9 RB rushing TDs per game (1.5 total rushing TDs per game) and the Jets are doing a decent job of running the ball of late and have 4.3 yards per carry (5.7 ypc last week). We’d expect Coleman to get the early work, with Johnson filling in for his usual third downs and two-minute drills.
Johnson can be had as high as +260 (at DraftKings), but Coleman might be the better play here at +230 (at BetMGM). Coleman’s TD price is as low as +160, and that +230 likely won’t last long in a game that should be close, and in which sharp money is siding with the Jets. That’s a one-unit play for us.
Josiah Deguara anytime TD (+800 at BetMGM)
The Packers enter Week 12 as basically a pick ‘em versus the Rams at home. Green Bay is getting healthier at WR and RB, but it’s the tight end position we’re eyeing this week as another longshot TD.
Robert Tonyan has been out since Week 8 with an ACL tear and has been replaced by young TE Josiah Deguara. The 2020 third-round pick has two catches in each of his last four games and scored his first TD last week, which paid +460. With the Rams likely keying on Davante Adams and possibly Aaron Jones (if he suits up), Deguara could see some action inside the 20.
The Rams allow an average of 6/60/0.4 to opposing TEs – which is a middle-of-the-pack mark – and gave up TDs to George Kittle in Week 10, Geoff Swaim in Week 9, and Brevin Jordan in Week 8. Deguara is more of a dart play to complement our more-favored bets but at +800 at BetMGM, he is worthy of a half a unit.
Season to date: 17-32 SU +8.62 units
