Thanksgiving Day not only gives us much to be happy for — such as a boatload of sports and early NFL Week 12 action — but it also offers time for personal reflection and a chance to really look forward and do what's best for us.
Yeah, yeah: Eyeing up look-ahead Week 13 odds isn't exactly what everyone had in mind, but the interpretation is in the eye of the beholder (or something like that).
Either way, the early NFL odds for next week have one total that stands out as one that could get a little more robust.
Let's explore some more on why the Raiders/Chargers total will likely see more points added to it than the mac-and-cheese on your second (or third) plate of food tonight.
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Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders Over 48
The Los Angeles Chargers have seen closing totals of at least 50 points — with line movement throughout the week in favor of the Over — in three of their last four games, against Kansas City, Seattle, and Atlanta.
The one exception, in terms of line movement and overall closing total (45.5), during that four-game span was against the San Francisco 49ers — an elite defense.
Not sure if you've watched them lately, but the Las Vegas Raiders aren't exactly an "elite defense"... or even a good defense, as they have given up at least 23 points in eight of 10 games this season, allow the ninth-most points per game and give up the sixth-most yards per game.
As for the Raiders' recent movement, they saw their totals trend towards the Over in three straight games until hitting two straight matchups against the Colts and Broncos — the two lowest-scoring teams in the NFL and two of the Bottom 4 in offensive EPA per game.
The Chargers have struggled with injuries all year but still have a lethal offense led by Justin Herbert, plus wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both finally back on the field. Los Angeles has scored fewer than 20 points twice in its last seven games — against the 49ers and Broncos, two of the Top 7 teams this year in tot defensive DVOA (per Football Outsiders) — while averaging nearly 27 ppg in the other five games.
The total for this Week 13 matchup currently sits at 48, the same number that the Raiders recently closed at against Jacksonville (worse offense) and New Orleans (worse offense + better defense). The Week 1 matchup between these hovered in the 52-53 range... and is the perception of these teams really that much different now than it was then?
Considering Las Vegas faced Seattle and the Bolts face a depleted Arizona side in Week 12, that should also pump up the offensive support heading into the first week of December.
I don't see this total closing at 48 — I expect it to move higher — so if you like an offensive explosion in this game, now might be the best time to bet it.
