The calendar turns to December as we prepare for Sunday's NFL Week 13 odds, and there's no shortage of solid opportunities.
My free NFL picks for this week will focus on my three favorite traditional wagers of the day — two spread plays and one total — before moving onto a same-game parlay featuring a potential preview of the NFC Championship game in 49ers vs. Eagles.
Without further ado, here are my best NFL odds parlays for Week 13.
Week 13 NFL parlay picks
- Lions -4 + Titans +2 + DEN/HOU Over 46.5 = +581
- B. Purdy Over 248.5 pass yds + C. McCaffrey Over 4.5 receptions + J. Hurts Under 42.5 rush yds = +480
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Best Week 13 parlay pick
Lions -4
Titans +2
Broncos vs. Texans Over 46.5
Caesars is the only book trading at these three most favorable lines as of Thursday afternoon, making them an obvious pick to put together this parlay at.
The Lions head to New Orleans off only their third loss of the season, a Thanksgiving Day debacle vs. the Packers from which they'll have had extra time to recover. In its previous two games following a loss this year, Detroit not only got back in the win column but did so by multiple scores. I'm expecting a similar outcome vs. the Saints.
New Orleans failed to secure its NFC South lead, off a bye week no less, in a listless 24-15 loss to the Falcons in Week 12. The Saints have lost two straight and four of six, and are 3-6 since getting off to a 2-0 start. They're also just 2-2 straight-up at home and 0-4 against the spread, while the Lions are 4-1 both SU and ATS on the road.
Look for David Montgomery and Detroit's sixth-ranked rushing attack to exploit the Saints' 22nd-ranked run-stoppers.
The Titans ran their home record to 4-0 both SU and ATS last Sunday when they conquered the Panthers 17-10. Tennessee may have lost to the Colts in Indianapolis back in Week 5, but I think the Titans can reverse the result at home, so I'll gladly take two insurance points.
Indy was forced to turn to Gardner Minshew midway through that Week 5 affair due to an injury to Anthony Richardson. The Titans should be better prepared for Minshew this time around, and Tennessee will also be able to lean on Derrick Henry as he's set to face the Colts' 26th-ranked rush defense.
Week 13's tilt between the Broncos and the Texans has the potential to turn into a track meet, as Russell Wilson takes on Houston's eighth-worst defense by yards allowed per play, while C.J. Stroud battles Denver's second-worst (albeit improving) defense by the same measure. The Broncos are averaging 24.5 points per game over their last four contests, while the Texans are tallying 27.8 ppg in the same span.
Best Week 13 SGP
Brock Purdy Over 248.5 passing yards
Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 receptions
Jalen Hurts Under 42.5 rushing yards
I'm turning to Caesars once again, as DraftKings is the only other book that will let you put this parlay together as of Thursday afternoon, but at +450 odds. Other sites have Brock Purdy sitting as high as 260.5 passing yards, so do your due diligence and shop around for the best lines.
Purdy has had at least 252 passing yards in seven of his last nine games, and averaged 316.5 passing yards over a four-game span prior to Thanksgiving night's modest 209-yard effort vs. the Seahawks in a tilt that was hardly competitive. I'm confident that the Eagles will give the 49ers much more of a game at "The Linc" on Sunday afternoon, meaning Purdy won't be able to rest on his laurels.
Bettors should expect San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan to lean on Purdy throughout this contest as the Niners take on a Philly rush defense that's tops in the NFL by yards allowed per game. By contrast, this unit is fourth-worst in defending the pass.
Following this same line of thought, I'll back Christian McCaffrey to go Over 4.5 receptions for the fifth straight game at fair coin-flip odds. The 49ers would be foolish to not get the ball in McCaffrey's hands as often as possible. Doing it through the air makes the most sense against an Eagles defense allowing the 10th-most running back receptions per game (5.1).
Finally, let's fade Jalen Hurts in the rushing department. If you exclude the overtime period vs. the Bills in Week 12, Hurts has gone below 43 rushing yards in five straight contests and nine of 11 games in 2023. The Niners are also allowing the fifth-fewest quarterback rushing yards per game (13.8).
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