The look-ahead lines for Week 16 odds are out, with the majority of the slate (11/16 games) happening on Saturday, December 24... and just three games on Sunday, December 25.
Looking through the early lines, there's one game that stands out now as a holiday betting gift, just waiting to be unwrapped on Christmas Eve.
Trust me, it's not that weird: When my sister and I were kids, our family used to let us open one (and one only) present on the night before Christmas. If that's a tradition you never had... well, consider this your chance to experience the joy of getting a gift before Christmas Day.
In this case, Santa and his reindeer (or are they the elves?) take the form of Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs laying single digits at home against the Seattle Seahawks.
As always, the NFL odds are highly likely to change, with Week 15 yet to get underway, but here's why Mahomes & Co. are my festive feature for NFL holiday action.
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Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 (vs Seattle Seahawks)
Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks have been arguably the biggest feel-good story of the season, entering the season projected to be among the worst teams in the league but jumping out to a 6-3 record and rallying behind Smith's now-iconic Week 1 quote.
Unfortunately, it seems someone finally has written back — reality — as the clock appears to be striking midnight on this green-and-blue Cinderella. Seattle has lost three of its last four games, dropping to 7-6 (and out of a playoff position), with a crumbling defense being the catalyst.
And for Week 16, the Seahawks are waltzing into Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs' high-octane offense... but are currently "only" sitting at +9.5.
Seattle has given up 28.5 points per game during this four-game slump, against the Panthers, Rams, Raiders, and Buccaneers — three of which are in the Bottom 10 of the NFL in offensive Expected Points Added.
The Chiefs are currently No. 1 in the NFL.
The Seahawks have also struggled to run the ball as of late, and while the passing game has been the strength, getting into a shootout with Patrick Mahomes almost never ends up well for anyone not wearing red — I don't see them being able to keep pace with the Chiefs.
Now, on the topic of that 9.5-point spread, consider this: Kansas City has closed as a double-digit favorite in three of four non-divisional home games this year (Rams, Jaguars, Titans), with the exception being against Super Bowl odds favorite Buffalo.
However, the spread moved in favor of the Chiefs in each of those games, and even a half-point shift toward KC will put the Chiefs at the key number of 10.
Recency bias will also likely move this line, as the Seahawks have a difficult divisional battle against red-hot San Francisco in Week 15 — a likely loss — while the Chiefs will get to feast on the 1-11-1 Texans — a likely (lopsided) win.
I'm looking at what most likely will be a 7-7 team that's lost four of five visiting an 11-3 team that's dominant at home — this will hit double digits, so if you want to bet on Mahomes & Co., your best chance is likely right now.
