NFL Week 16 Odds: Best Spot Bets Include Looming Letdown in La-La Land

The weather outside is frightful and so is the NFL Week 16 schedule.

On top of the usual situational booby traps lurking, you have the hustle and bustle of the holiday and a revamped Xmas Weekend slate spreading the action across four days.

If you’re looking to put the bookies on the “naughty list” in Week 16, I highlight my favorite situational spots — AKA spot bets — to keep in mind while the NFL odds dance in your head.

Here’s my best letdown, look-ahead, and schedule spot for NFL Week 16.

Letdown Spot: New Orleans (+4) at Los Angeles Rams

The New Orleans Saints have won two straight and are making a run at the NFC South title. But Week 16 presents a rare challenge New Orleans hasn’t faced in almost a month: a road game.

NOLA crosses the country to face the red-hot Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football marking the first time the team has played outside the Superdome since November 26.

The Saints have gotten a little too fat and happy in the Big Easy, and now a letdown looms in La-La Land. Those last two victories came against the Giants and Panthers and this Week 16 matchup is a step up in opponent.

The Rams are rolling with four wins in their last five games and that lone loss coming in overtime. Los Angeles ranks No. 6 in EPA per play during this stretch and faces a New Orleans defense that has allowed scores of 24, 27, and 27 in its three most recent road games against offenses far worse than L.A.

Look-Ahead Spot: New England Patriots (+5.5) at Denver Broncos

This is a non-traditional look-ahead spot for a non-traditional Week 16 schedule.

The New England Patriots find their way into the look-ahead spot but they’re not looking past the Denver Broncos to an upcoming opponent but rather looking forward to getting the F outta Denver.

New England draws the short straw as the team that has to travel for the late game on Christmas Eve. The Pats cross the country and go up the mountain for this 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff on December 24.

Given the current state of things in Foxborough, the players don’t want to be there on a normal week — let alone playing on the other side of the country in a potential freezer at Mile High. Some extended forecasts for Saturday night call for snow showers, wind gusts up to 22 mph, and “feels like” temperatures at 14 degrees.

Oddsmakers aren’t expecting much with this game tagged with the lowest total of the week. Following that mess, the team will likely have an overnight trip back to the East Coast to get home in time for Christmas morning.

Bill Belichick may want to ask Santa for some motivation because the Patriots won’t have it.

Schedule Spot: Buffalo Bills (-13.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

There’s a lot to like about the Buffalo Bills right now. But with this spread against the Bolts ballooning, take heed of a tricky situational spot in Week 16.

The Los Angeles Chargers don’t have much working for them, given their star QB is out and they just canned their head coach after giving up 60-something points to the Raiders last Thursday. But hey, that gives L.A. a head start.

While the Chargers get a mini-bye to plug the many holes in the dam, the Bills have a short week turnaround to travel across the country for Saturday’s 8 p.m. ET kickoff. Buffalo also sprinkles this schedule spot with a dash of letdown after handing the Cowboys a 31-10 ass-waxing in Week 15.

Again, the Bills and Bolts are headed in opposite directions and it will reflect in the growing spread which is already tipping to two touchdowns.

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