The home stretch of the season is always a challenge for NFL betting.
Now, COVID-19 throws a wrench into the mix, hitting teams hard over the past week and forcing the league to shuffle the schedule. We still have eight teams in action Monday and Tuesday, so NFL Week 16 odds are rolling out slowly.
We normally preach planning your attack by betting some spreads and totals now and waiting for moves on others. However, with a growing uncertainty around outbreaks, it can make the “Bet Now” part of this weekly article riskier.
That said, we move forward with our NFL Week 16 spreads and totals to bet now and the best lines to bet later. Be safe out there.
Week 16 bet now, bet later picks
- Indianapolis Colts (+2) at Arizona Cardinals: Bet Now
- Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-3): Bet Later
- Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (Under 44.5): Bet Now
- Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (Over44.5): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Indianapolis Colts (+2) at Arizona Cardinals: Bet Now
Give yourself an early Christmas gift and bet the Colts now for this December 25 showcase. The lookahead lines had Colts as big as +3.5 as of Sunday afternoon and that slimmed to +2.5 before a massive market adjustment slimmed the spread further. As of this writing, Indianapolis is as big as +2 at FanDuel books.
The Colts just squashed the big bad Fighting Belichicks on Thursday night – snaring the attention of the betting public - and now have a mini bye to prep for this holiday trip to the desert.
Arizona, on other hand, suffered one of the biggest upsets of the 2021 campaign, losing outright as 13-point road chalk to Detroit in Week 15. The Cardinals have lost two in a row and have been a rotten bet at home, posting a 2-4 ATS count inside State Farm Stadium.
If you’re buying into the Colts, who are 5-1 ATS as visitors, you’ll want to scoop them with as many points as possible. Following that barrage of early money that chopped as many as two points off the spread, public perception could drive this line over the fence by Monday night.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-3): Bet Later
The Ravens turned heads with a hard-fought effort versus Green Bay at home in Week 15, coming a two-point conversion away from upsetting the Cheeseheads as 9-point pups with a paper-thin roster and no Lamar Jackson under center.
Jackson was a game-time decision with a bruised ankle bone and will likely suit up for this crucial AFC North matchup in Week 16, with Baltimore getting points in Cincinnati for the first time since Week 2 of the 2018 season.
The Bengals won a sloppy 15-10 game in Denver on Sunday but did snap a two-game skid. Cincinnati smashed the Ravens 41-17 on the road back in Week 7, and while the opener hit the board as high as Bengals -3, some books are dealing Cincy -2.5.
Given the gutsy performance from Baltimore and the likelihood that Lamar returns to practice – as well as some other starters - before Sunday’s game, I could see this spread coming off the field goal and possibly slipping lower. The lookahead spread was as low as -2 last week.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (Under 44.5): Bet Now
The Bills head to Gillette Stadium looking for revenge versus the Patriots, who ran all over Buffalo in Week 13. With insane wind gusts causing chaos in that game, New England attempted only three passes and handed off 46 times for 222 yards rushing, taking a 14-10 win that stayed well below the 41-point closing total.
The Patriots were locked down to just 17 points in a Thursday loss at Indianapolis in Week 15. New England fell behind 20-0 and had to abandon that relentless rushing attack but look to get back to bullying the Bills at home on December 26. And what do you know? The extended forecast for Foxborough is calling wind gusts up to 40 mph, possible rain/snow showers, and “feels like” temperatures around freezing.
Buffalo snapped a two-game skid with a 31-14 win over Carolina at home on Sunday but wasn’t all that impressive on offense. It mustered only 312 total yards, which should have panned out to about 21 points, but three turnovers and the Panthers going for it on fourth down (kicker got hurt in warmups) gave the Bills extra touches.
If you’re on the Under in this battle for AFC East supremacy (2-5 O/U last seven meetings), then make sure you get that in now before this number ticks down. Some online books had this total as low as 43.5 early Sunday evening.
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (Over 44.5): Bet Later
The Lions scored 30 points in their stunning upset of the Cardinals in Week 15 – the team’s biggest offensive outpouring since Week 1. Defensively, Detroit checked Arizona to just 12 points but still allowed almost 400 yards of offense, which should have panned out to at least 26 points for the visitor, if not for a 0-for-4 day in the red zone.
Atlanta scored only 13 points in its loss at San Francisco and also whiffed inside the Niners’ 20-yard line, going 1 for 5 in the RZ, and leaving plenty of points on the table. The Falcons come back to Mercedes-Benz Stadium for just their second home game since Week 12 this Sunday.
The total for this unsexy game opened as high as 44.5 but some shops are dealing it as low as 43.5 points. These defenses rank 25th (Atlanta) and 30th (Detroit) in EPA allowed per play and if you’re banking on bad football from the stop units, wait and see how low this total goes before coming back on the Over.
