NFL Week 16 Weather and Odds: Run Game Will be Needed

The last two weeks of the NFL odds have featured some matches with game-altering weather conditions, which should come as no surprise as we enter the deep of winter.

We saw the Falcons and Panthers slog through a 9-7 game in gusts and rain; we saw the Dolphins rely on their ground game due to high winds; and we saw the Bears and Browns rely more on the short to intermediate areas of their passing attack in 20+ MPH winds.

Week 16 odds bring a more timid slate of weather, but there is still much to cover.

Continue reading for breakdowns of the forecasts before you lock in any Week 16 NFL picks. 

Cardinals vs Bears Weather

This battle between the two teams currently in position for the first and second overall picks of the 2024 draft has the potential to be even uglier.

As of Tuesday afternoon, there is a 44% chance of rain, and the wind is projected to be around 13 MPH, and the temperature is slated to be around 47 degrees.

That last bit could play a role, as game temperatures from 25-55 degrees see a 5% dip in passing production on average. The effect could potentially be exasperated on Arizona's end, who are coming from a city that is seeing temperatures 30 degrees higher during the week and is a team that plays indoors at home.

However, the potential for rain would be more impactful, as any form of rain (including even a light downpour) typically leads to a 12% dip in passing production.

The wind is mild enough to not have too large of an impact, but it could exasperate issues in combination with the other conditions,

Patriots vs Broncos Weather

This AFC matchup has a nearly full complement of game conditions to consider.

The most obvious is the altitude of the Broncos' Empower Field at Mile High, which sits a whopping 5,280 feet above sea level. But that's a given considering that is always the case for Broncos home games.

There is also a 45% chance of snow that is paired with a week-low 36-degree temperature and winds in the 12 MPH range.

However, this may be a game where the impact of conditions ends up being overstated. If the snow ends up being on the lighter end, there may be nothing to fret about: games featuring light snow have only seen a 2% dip in passing production compared to games played in ideal conditions.

Heavier snow (which should not be present on Sunday) typically features a 25% dip in production, for comparison.

Raiders vs Chiefs Weather

This AFC West matchup has a 54% chance of rain with some milder wind speeds (13 MPH). Of the two projected conditions, the former is the more potentially impactful.

Given that Las Vegas ranks 22nd in rush defense DVOA and the Chiefs rank 27th while ranking 11th and 8th in pass defense DVOA respectively, they may already come into the game with gameplans favoring their respective ground games. 

As mentioned previously the presence of any kind of rain leads to a 12% dip in passing production on average, and if it indeed rains we could see an even more run-heavy approach than anticipated.

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

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