Week 17 NFL Parlay Picks: Kittle in His Bag vs. Commanders

We're nearing the end of the NFL season with Week 17 already here, but the betting opportunities are not drying up by any means. 

I think there are some soft lines to take advantage of in the NFL odds, particularly in the early Sunday window. Join me as I highlight my free NFL parlay picks for Sunday, December 31.

Week 17 NFL parlay picks

• Rams -5.5 + Bears -2.5 (alt. spread) + PIT/SEA u41.5 = +555
• 49ers HT/FT + C. McCaffrey o86.5 rush yds + G. Kittle o51.5 rec yds = +335

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best Week 17 parlay pick

Rams -5.5

Bears -2.5 (alt. spread)

Steelers vs. Seahawks Under 41.5

+555 at FanDuel

FanDuel is the best site to place this parlay despite BetMGM hanging a slightly better line of -5 on the Rams. I'm more concerned about getting in at better than -6, where Caesars currently is, as 5 is not one of the key numbers.

The Giants have gone from bad to worse at quarterback, with Tommy DeVito giving way to the well-traveled Tyrod Taylor. Only the Ravens have topped 22 points among the Rams' last six opponents. The Rams have compiled a 5-1 record in that span, and they're also 5-1 against the spread in that sample, with the lone failure to cover coming by half a point. 

New York will likely lean on Saquon Barkley when on offense, but he faces an L.A. run defense that's been tenacious of late, allowing an average of just 80.2 rushing yards per game over its last six contests. Meanwhile, Kyren Williams is likely licking his chops ahead of a matchup with Big Blue's 29th-rated run stoppers.

FanDuel also has the best price on the standard line of Bears -3 at -105, but with the chance of a push being elevated, I'll sacrifice just under a half-point odds-wise to get to a more favorable -2.5. 

The home/road splits for Falcons vs. Bears are striking, as Atlanta goes from a team averaging 332.5 yards overall on offense to a much more modest 263 yards on the road. Chicago's stoppers go from allowing 318.1 yards per game to 268.7 yards per game at Soldier Field. The Bears offense goes from 324.7 yards per game overall to 347.3 at home, and the Falcons defense goes from 308.4 to 326 yards per game as a visitor.

Bettors should note Chicago has won each of its last four home games by at least a field goal.

Finally, both the Steelers and Seahawks offenses have been stuck in the mud in recent weeks. Prior to a 34-point outburst vs. the Bengals, Pittsburgh went five straight games without reaching 20 points. The Steelers have averaged only 15.3 points per game on the road in 2023.

Seattle has scored 20 points or fewer in five of its last six. Only FanDuel and Caesars are holding this line at 41.5 as of Friday afternoon, with other books at a flat 41.

Best Week 17 SGP

49ers win halftime/fulltime

Christian McCaffrey Over 86.5 rushing yards

George Kittle Over 51.5 receiving yards

+335 at DraftKings

DraftKings is one of the few sites that will let you include the 49ers halftime/fulltime winner result. The juice just isn't there on the fulltime moneyline in the -750 range across the board, so this option is an important one for bettors to have. 

Though I'm loath to give 7.5 points with San Francisco in the first-half wagering, their excellence in first halves this year cannot be overlooked. The Niners are third in the NFL in first-half points per game (15.6) and seventh in first-half points allowed (9.5). By contrast, the Commanders are 26th in points for in first halves this year (8.7) while allowing the most first-half points per game to opponents (16.6). 

This game might be one San Francisco was hoping to glide through prior to Week 16, but they suffered a wake-up call of sorts vs. the Ravens on Christmas Day and now need to get back up on their feet. Former NFL MVP odds frontrunner Brock Purdy, in particular, could use a bounce-back performance vs. Washington's league-worst total defense, and both Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle should help him accomplish that.

McCaffrey has been taking the burden off the 49ers passing game all year and has eclipsed 86.5 rushing yards in five straight contests. Breece Hall (95 yards) and Kyren Williams (152 yards) ran wild vs. this defense in successive weeks, and McCaffrey should have no problem exposing this unit as well.

Kittle has gotten to 52 or more yards in four straight games and eight of his last nine overall while averaging 73.2 yards in that sample. Bettors should take advantage of this generous line against the Commanders' 31st-ranked passing defense. 

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic