The NFL season is coming down to the wire and with it comes a ton of opportunistic prop markets. We’re looking into every market to uncover some of the week’s best side, team, player, and derivative prop bets. We do the heavy lifting so you don’t have to!
We’re adding to our Week 17 prop list which includes fading one of the better quarterbacks in football while simultaneously riding with one of the worst passers in the league. We’re also betting on a fullback as well as a tight end coming off the COVID list.
Without further ado, we bring you our Week 17 free player prop picks and predictions.
Latest NFL prop picks
- Kelce Over 69.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Juszczyk Over 11.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Murray Under 256.5 passing yards (-114)
- Hill Over 192.5 passing yards (-110)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
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NFL prop picks for Saturday
Hometown hero
It may sound silly, but Travis Kelce could be flying under the radar this week. He posted his best game of the season in Week 15 — a 10-catch, 191-yard performance with two scores — but missed last week while on the COVID list. He comes into Week 17 with a great matchup, a hometown angle, and receiving yard prop total that opened lower this week than it has in 13 of his other 14 games.
The Kansas City tight end will face a Cincinnati defense that gave up 125 yards to Mark Andrews last week, over 100 yards to Denver tight ends in Week 15, and 151 yards to George Kittle the week before that. With the second-highest total on the board Sunday, we could see a ton of yards put up by both teams.
His quarterback is also in a groove as Patrick Mahomes has passed for over 250 yards in three straight games, which is the first time he’s done that since Week 6. He’s also tossed eight touchdowns over that stretch and seems to be over some mid-season struggles.
Kelce is drawing 22 percent of the team’s targets on the season and with his 540 yards after catch leading tight ends and fourth in all of football, Kelce taking on extra yards after the catch is a formality. Did we mention he also went to University at Cincinnati and was born in the state? This 69.5 receiving yards is an easy Over for us.
PICK: Travis Kelce Over 69.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Juszczyk point
Kyle Juszczyk plays roughly 50 percent of the snaps for the 49ers and has been getting plenty of attention in the passing game over his last five games. He’s topped 20 yards receiving in three of those games and is coming off a 10-week high with 21 snaps in the passing game.
Kyle Shanahan trusts the fullback more than some of his other running backs in pass protection, especially Trey Sermon. Elijah Mitchell is not anywhere near 100 percent and is questionable heading into the Week 17 matchup against the Texans with Trey Lance under center.
In the one start Lance had back in Week 5, Juszczyk saw four targets and caught three of Lance’s 15 completions for 35 yards. Lance finished that game with just 3.9 air yards per pass attempt and if Shanahan wants to keep things conservative, we could see plenty of third downs with the fullback in the backfield.
At 11.5 receiving yards, this could be a one-and-done but we like the trusted back to see three to four targets in a game that could be closer than some believe.
PICK: Kyle Juszczyk Over 11.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Murray Sanchez
In the last two games without DeAndre Hopkins, Kyler Murray has completed 50 of his 84 passes for 59 percent, which is ten points lower than the quarterback’s average completion percentage of 69 percent for the season. He’s completed just one pass further than 29 yards and hasn’t been taking shots, as his 3.1 air yards per attempt indicates. He’s also dealt with five dropped passes and now will have less time in the pocket with the Dallas pass rush on deck for Week 17.
The Cowboys generate the fourth-most pressure on opposing quarterbacks in the league and have held their opponents to just 158 yards per game over the last three weeks. They haven’t faced much talent at QB of late, but they did hold Patrick Mahomes to 50 yards under his passing total in Week 11.
The Cardinals are still dealing with offensive line issues, as DJ Humphries has been placed on the COVID list. He has been the only offensive lineman to play each game this year and his loss at left tackle is significant with Micah Parsons lurking across the ball.
With Murray struggling to get the ball deep and his reliance on Hopkins glaring, we’re fading the Arizona QB this week in a tough matchup.
PICK: Kyler Murray Under 256.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Over the Hill
The Carolina defense sure has fallen apart down the stretch. This was a unit that featured a Top-10 pass and rush defense but since Week 10, it sits 20th in EPA/play. This team is running on fumes and with Matt Rhule having no game plan for his quarterback situation, it seems this team is losing faith heading into the final weeks.
Carolina has dropped five straight games and has been outscored 152 to 72 over that stretch. The Panthers own the 31st EPA/play pass defense since Week 11 and come into their Week 17 meeting against Taysom Hill with a handful of COVID-issues on the defense.
The Panthers will be missing top pass rushers Haason Reddick and Brian Burns as well as linebacker Shaq Thompson. To make matters worse, corner Stephon Gilmore is also highly questionable with a groin injury. Phil Snow’s defense had 20 defensive players active on the roster as of Thursday.
Hill is no gun-slinger but facing this decimated defense and looking to impress heading into next season, we’re hitting the Over on his modest passing total of 192.5 yards. Other books are already at 200 yards as news of this Carolina defense keeps coming out.
Hill is averaging 198 passing yards per game over his last three starts and with his finger issue behind him, he shouldn't have any limitations.
Marquez Callaway had six catches for 112 yards in his last game with Hill and will be a big target with Tre’Quan Smith out. The receiver formerly known as Deonte Harris is also back and offers big YAC opportunities for Hill as well. Tell the world: we’re riding the arm of Taysom Hill.
PICK: Taysom Hill Over 192.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
NFL prop picks for Friday
Bounceback Stafford
Sunday is the perfect storm for the Baltimore Ravens’ secondary. They are paper-thin in talent, gave up 500-plus yards to Joe Burrow last week, and now have to face Matthew Stafford who is coming off one of the worst games (three interceptions) of his career. To add, the Ravens’ rush defense has been a Top-10 unit all season and should force the Rams to pass a little more as they sit in the middle of the pack in passes per game.
Heading into last week, Stafford had topped 280 yards passing in three of his previous four games. He’ll have plus matchups all over the field this weekend versus a Baltimore secondary that will be without five DBs and another two questionable, including starter Anthony Averett who exited last week’s game early with a rib injury.
Cooper Kupp is also looking to pass Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving record of 1,964 yards, which Johnson accomplished with Stafford passing him the ball. Kupp currently has 1,734 receiving yards and could see plenty of slot corner Tavon Young, who is ranked as the No. 80 corner in the league out of 116 by Pro Football Focus.
While many will be looking to hammer Kupp's receiving total, we’re hit the Over on his quarterback at 287.5 passing yards. The weather isn’t looking problematic, either.
PICK: Matthew Stafford Over 287.5 yards (-110 at bet365)
Business Waddle
Jaylen Waddle returned to the lineup last week for the Dolphins and finished with a 10/92/1 and an absurd 46.2 percent target share. In his last three games, the rookie receiver is averaging 9.3 catches for 106 yards. He is six catches away from breaking Anquan Boldin’s rookie record of 101 catches.
He’ll get to rack up yards against a Tennessee defense that allows the most catches and most yards per game to opposing wide receivers. Over his last three games, Waddle has done damage against the sixth, ninth and 19th ranked passing defense in EPA/play.
Commanding such a huge share of the team’s passing game and facing an opponent that allows 192 yards per game to opposing wide receivers, we’re hitting the Over on Waddle’s receiving yard total that sits at 70.5 yards. He’s topped this number in three straight games and six times in his last nine. The 70 yards is a season-high but with his recent play, we aren’t scared to get down here.
PICK: Jaylen Waddle Over 70.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Licensed to Tannehill
Ryan Tannehill got it done last week versus the 49ers but a more than generous San Francisco secondary had a lot to do with it. Tannehill was allowed to complete third down passes of 10 (x2), 15, and 23 yards. The Titans finished 9 for 16 on third downs but now face a Miami defense that sits fifth in success rate against the pass and No. 1 since Week 10.
The 49ers’ pass rush is good, but no team generates more pressure than the Dolphins and with a good-to-great secondary that features rookie hybrid-safety Jevon Holland, who ranks 9th in coverage per PFF, Tannehill has a real challenge this week.
Quarterbacks are averaging just 122 passing yards per game over the last three weeks against Miami and you have to go back to Week 11 to find a QB who has thrown for more than 200 yards against Brian Flores’ defense.
AJ Brown missed practice on Thursday but is considered probable to play with the absence being called precautionary. Still, if Brown were to miss this game or even scaled back, Tannehill’s passing yard total of 218.5 would likely head south.
The Titans’ QB has topped 220 yards passing just once in his last seven games and we can fade him again in Week 17.
PICK: Ryan Tannehill Under 218.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
Hurts engine
Jalen Hurts ran for two touchdowns versus Washington in Week 15 and could be asked to get it done on the ground again this week with Miles Sanders out. Sanders rushed for 131 yards in that game versus Washington, as the Football team owns a Bottom-10 rush defense in EPA/play since Week 10. Jordan Howard is also questionable with a stinger for the Eagles.
Hurts and the Eagles are in must-win mode and the quarterback is coming off his lowest usage in the running game all season last week versus the Giants. Sanders missed three games this season and Hurts averaged 65 yards on the ground without his best back and topped 60 yards in each game.
The Football Team allows more fantasy points to opposing QBs than any other team and that includes a healthy 28 rushing yards per game. With Hurts gaining just 45 yards on the ground over the last two weeks, we’re getting an 11-week-low on the QB’s rushing total that sits at 44.5. We’re on the Over here.
PICK: Jalen Hurts Over 44.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Season to date: 110-102 +6.96 units (Risking to win 1 unit per play)
NFL Week 17 prop betting card
- Travis Kelce Over 69.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
- Kyle Juszczyk Over 11.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
- Kyler Murray Under 256.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Taysom Hill Over 192.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
- Matthew Stafford Over 287.5 yards (-110 at bet365)
- Jaylen Waddle Over 70.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
- Ryan Tannehill Under 218.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
- Jalen Hurts Over 44.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
