Good ol' NFL Week 17 used to be a mess for bettors when it served as the final week of the schedule. But now with the expanded slate, it provides some excellent opportunities for situational handicappers searching for hidden value in the NFL odds.
We look past the advanced stats and power ratings, getting our hands dirty by digging into this week’s schedule to unearth our top spot bets for Week 17 – letdown, lookahead, and schedule spots.
Letdown spot: Buffalo Bills (-14) vs Atlanta Falcons
The Buffalo Bills have been thinking about nothing but revenge on the New England Patriots since losing an embarrassing home game to the Pats back in Week 13. And now that the Mafia has its retribution — knocking off New England 33-21 Sunday — there’s a hollow spot where all that hate used to be.
Buffalo is ripe for a letdown and laying a butt-ton of points in Week 17, giving two touchdowns to the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta isn’t getting much credit, considering it’s 7-8 and still vying for a Wild Card spot in the NFC. The Falcons are hot garbage at home, going 0-6 ATS as hosts, but come to play on the road with a 5-3 ATS mark as visitors.
That said, this will be Atlanta’s third road game in four weeks and the extended forecast for Orchard Park is calling for “feels like” temperatures in the mid-teens and possible snow showers and winds up to 25 mph. But this spread is already up to Bills -15 at some books, so if you’re liking the letdown from Buffalo, grab all the points you can with Atlanta.
Look-ahead spot: San Francisco 49ers (-15) vs Houston Texans
The 49ers’ playoff plans took a hit with a gross collapse to Tennessee last Thursday, putting San Francisco in the No. 6 spot in the NFC pecking order — unable to move up — and not yet guaranteeing a ticket to the tournament.
The Niners have a very winnable home game on paper with Houston coming to the Bay Area in Week 17... and knowing that, could get caught looking ahead to a season finale with the rival Rams that could decide their postseason fate — or at least their seeding.
As for this Sunday, San Francisco is laying 15 points and facing a Texans team that refuses to tank. Houston has won two in a row and just shocked the L.A. Chargers as 13.5-point underdogs in Week 16. The Texans should get bodies back from the COVID list in Week 17, including WR Brandin Cooks.
With this spread on the other side of two touchdowns, the backdoor could be wide open should the 49ers be up in the fourth quarter and thinking about next week’s finale with the Rams.
Schedule spot: Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Baltimore Ravens
Los Angeles hits the highway for the second straight week and the third time in the past four games when it comes to Baltimore to battle the Ravens this Sunday. L.A. is 4-4 ATS as a visitor this season.
The Rams are also playing their first outdoor game since November 28 when they take the turf at M&T Bank Stadium on January 2. The extended forecast for Baltimore is calling for potential rain showers and winds gusts flirting with 30 mph Sunday afternoon.
Los Angeles has actually only played four games outside this season, going 2-2 SU and ATS in those open-air matchups, most recently losing road trips to Green Bay and San Francisco back in November. Quarterback Matthew Stafford, who’s played all of his career home games in domed stadiums, owns a passer rating of 96.4 in those four outdoor games (104.0 rating on the season) with a 65.28% completion rate along with nine touchdowns and five interceptions. For his career, Stafford has a passer rating of 88.0 under open skies versus 92.59 indoors.
It’s a tough cross-country hike, especially with the Rams coming off limited practice and strict protocols after a COVID outbreak the past two weeks. This spread is as high as L.A. -3.5 but the Rams could be in for some road rash — especially if the Ravens return Lamar Jackson in Week 17.
