NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 18: Hill Goes Aerial Against the Falcons

Week 18 is here and with it comes a ton of opportunistic prop markets. We’re looking into every market to uncover some of the week’s best side, team, player, and derivative prop bets. We do the heavy lifting so you don’t have to!

The final week of the NFL season is a tough landscape to navigate but we’ve found some edges for Sunday’s slate that’ll hopefully be turning this mess of a week into a profitable one. Players will be looking to cash in and so will we.

Without further ado, we bring you our Week 18 free prop picks.

Latest NFL prop picks

• Diggs Over 70.5 receiving yards (-114)
• Andrews Over 69.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Hill Over 201.5 passing yards (-110)
• Brady Under 288.5 passing yards (-110)

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Friday

Potential payday

The Bills have a lot to play for Sunday, as a win over the Jets will lock up the top spot in the AFC East. Receiver Stefon Diggs also has some pretty massive incentives, as the Buffalo receiver could be hitting over $3 million in contract bonuses with a monster game.

Diggs has two bonuses he’s looking to hit in the final week of the season: one very attainable one and another likely improbable one. The first bonus, and the more probable of the two, is Diggs can earn $1.55 million with six more catches to reach the 100-catch mark. However, through no coincidence, his reception total sits at 6.5, and with a chance of him getting the 100th catch and then hitting the sidelines, we’re off this prop and instead hitting the Over on his receiving yards that sits at 74.5.

Diggs needs 231 yards to hit another $1.55 million bonus and with all these funds at stake Sunday, we can almost guarantee that Josh Allen is aware and will be looking to get the ball into Diggs’ hands often. Of course, 231 yards is pretty improbable, but we could definitely see Allen trying to hit on big plays early to give this thing a shot against a Jets defense that sits dead-last in both dropback success rate and EPA/play. Diggs posted his best game versus the Jets back in Week 10 with an eight-catch 162-yard performance.

There are a lot of mouths to feed in this passing game but Diggs is the alpha and should have every chance to put up big numbers Sunday to cash in. FanDuel is still hanging a 70.5 yard total while all the other books are at 74.5. We’d hit this number up to 79 yards as we’re pretty certain Diggs will get at least six grabs. 

PICK: Stefon Diggs Over 70.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Mark my words

Tyler Huntley will get the start again for the Ravens on Sunday in a game Baltimore needs to win to give itself a chance at a playoff spot. The addition of Huntley hasn’t downgraded this offense much, as its 5.3 yards per play is league average and only slightly below its season mark of 5.4. 

Huntley has been heavily reliant on tight end Mark Andrews, as their connection has totaled 35 catches for 413 yards in Huntley’s four games. Since Week 11 (Huntley’s first start), Andrews has a 27.6% target share, 51 catches, and is averaging 12.8 yards per catch. The huge production of late has put Andrews on the brink of breaking the all-time TE receiving record, as he needs 141 receiving yards to do it. This is a very obtainable number, considering he’s totaled at least 115 receiving yards in three of his last four games.

With the Ravens in desperation mode and Huntley and Andrews’ chemistry, plus Andrews looking to break an NFL record, the Over 69.5 yards is still a play for us despite it opening at 60.5. We’d play this number all the way up to 79 yards in a game where Andrews should get peppered versus a Pittsburgh team that checked out last week.

PICK: Mark Andrews Over 69.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

King of the Hill

Trusting Taysom Hill as a passer might seem like trusting your dog to babysit the kids, but Hill could be turning Fido into Mrs. Doubtfire this week.

Hill’s passing total sits at 201.5 yards, which is down 10 yards after opening at 211.5. Last week, we saw this number fall to 185.5 yards and Hill proved doubters wrong. He finally got Alvin Kamara (five catches for 68 yards) going in the passing game, is building chemistry with Marquise Callaway (six catches for 97 yards), and has Deonte Harris (two catches for 22 yards) back on the field. This was versus the Panthers’ No. 15 DVOA pass defense. Now, the fleet-footed signal-caller will get to prove he's worthy of the No. 1 spot next season against the Falcons’ No. 27 DVOA pass defense indoors at the Caesars Superdome.

Trevor Siemian passed for over 240 yards versus this same defense back in Week 9 while Hill also started two games versus the Falcons last season, passing for at least 230 yards in both of them. With Atlanta’s offense likely to struggle versus the Saints’ defense, Hill and the offense should get plenty of long fields to rack up yards against a defense that gives up explosive passes at a Top-6 rate.

New Orleans’ playoff hopes are still on the line and Hill could surprise many with a big win on the road versus a divisional foe. Nothing spells confidence more than bragging to your friends that you hit your Over Hill passing yards prop.

PICK: Taysom Hill Over 201.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Benching Brady

Tom Brady will likely go down as the best quarterback to ever play the game but on Sunday versus the Panthers, he has a lot more on the line: the NFL’s single-season passing yards record. He needs 488 passing yards to pass Peyton Manning for the top spot but with the Buccaneers already locked into a Top-4 playoff spot, there isn’t a ton to play for Sunday and the line is telling us a lot about Bruce Arians' possible player usage. 

The lowly Panthers currently sit as 8.5-point underdogs heading into Tampa. This line opened at Tampa -16.5, which is appropriate if the Bucs play their starters for the entirety of this game. However, with this low-hanging fruit of -8.5, we can somewhat assume that books know that Tampa won’t be giving this game 100 percent of its effort, leaving Brady’s quest for the passing record likely improbable. Even in the middle of the season, 488 yards isn’t an easy task. A ring is likely more important to the GOAT and Arians here plus with the extra week, is it really a record?

At 288.5 passing yards, we’re hitting the Under on Brady’s passing yard total and wouldn’t be surprised if this number comes tumbling down as long as this spread doesn’t move back towards the -16. 

With a banged-up roster, Arians should value health over seeding, and with the Panthers just itching to hit the offseason, the Bucs should jump out to an early lead and ride the backups to victory anyway.

PICK: Tom Brady Under 288.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Season to date: 116-107, +9.01 units (Risking to win 1 unit per play)

NFL Week 18 prop betting card

• Stefon Diggs Over 70.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
• Mark Andrews Over 69.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
• Taysom Hill Over 201.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
• Tom Brady Under 288.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

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