While the last week in the NFL regular season can be a time when some starters rest for the playoffs and others look forward to golfing, some players might be incentivized by the individual glory of breaking a record - especially if their teammates and coaches will help them get it.
We look at three stars who could enter the record books in Week 18 and some player prop picks worth betting on if you think they'll be going all out while others are packing it in.
NFL Week 18 record-breaking props
- Cooper Kupp Over 115.5 receiving yards (-115)
- T.J. Watt to record at least 1.5 sacks (-130)
- Kyle Pitts Over 64.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Tom Brady Under 291.5 passing yards (-115)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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NFL record-breaking prop plays
Cooper Kupp Over 115.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Cooper Kupp has said that it "wouldn't feel right" for regular season records to fall in the 17th game of the season but I'm sure people said the same thing when the league expanded to 16 games in 1978. A record is a record, and if the Rams receiver enters the books on Sunday there won't be an asterisk by his name.
Kupp is 12 catches shy of breaking Michael Thomas' receptions record, set just two years ago, and he also sits 135 yards behind the yardage record set by Calvin Johnson — who just happened to have Matthew Stafford slinging the ball to him with the Lions in 2012. Now Stafford is airing it out to Kupp and it won't just be about padding his numbers on Sunday, because the Rams need a victory against the 49ers to ensure they win the NFC West.
The 49ers are extremely banged up in the secondary, with five defensive backs currently on the COVID-19 list. That includes starting safety Jimmie Ward, nickel back K'Waun Williams, and cornerback Dontae Johnson, who had just replaced the struggling Josh Norman in the starting lineup.
It won't be easy for Kupp to hit those lofty receiving marks but if the Rams try to give him the ball that much, he'll likely hit the Over on his yards total which is set at 115.5 — a number he has surpassed in six of his last 11 games, including Week 10 versus the Niners.
T.J. Watt to record at least 1.5 sacks (-130 at DraftKings)
After a monster four-sack game against Baker Mayfield and the Browns last week, Watt heads into Week 18 with a very real shot at breaking Michael Strahan's record of 22.5 sacks.
Watt sits just one sack behind the Giants great as the Steelers head to Baltimore. The Ravens will have Tyler Huntley starting at quarterback for the second straight week and if recent history is any indication, he'll be running for his life. Baltimore has really missed injured left tackle Ronnie Stanley and the Ravens offensive line has allowed a league-worst 54 sacks with Huntley eating dirt five times last week.
Watt picked up 3.5 sacks versus the Ravens and the more mobile Lamar Jackson in Week 13 and he also had 3 sacks in two games against them in 2020.
Kyle Pitts Over 64.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Surprisingly, the NFL rookie record for receiving yards by a tight end was set 60 years ago by Mike Ditka. Not only did the clean-shaven Ditka rack up 1,067 yards during a 14-game season, he did it during a run-first era when tight ends were primarily expected to be blockers.
Now tight ends line up all over the field, so it was really just a matter of time this record fell, and Falcons rookie Kyle Pitts might be the one to do it. The Saints generally do a good job of defending against tight ends but Pitts is basically Atlanta's only real receiving weapon, so Matt Ryan will have no choice but to try to get the ball into his hands.
Pitts reeled in just two catches against Buffalo's highly-rated pass defense last week but he turned that into 69 yards. In Week 16 he had six catches for 106 yards versus the Lions and the week before he racked up seven receptions for 77 yards versus San Francisco.
When Russell Gage and Olamide Zaccheaus are your starting wide receivers, you should be trying to target Pitts as much as possible even if he wasn't on the verge of breaking a record. But with the record firmly in his sights and sitting just six yards below the O/U on his player prop, we're grabbing the Over.
Tom Brady Under 291.5 passing yards (-115 at William Hill)
There aren't many passing records that Tom Brady doesn't already own but the GOAT can add a couple more to that list on Sunday against the Panthers. Brady needs 16 completions to break Drew Brees's single-season record and that looks like a gimme when you consider that he averages 28.5 completions per game, but breaking Peyton Manning's record of 5,447 yards will take a monster effort.
Tampa Bay coach Bruce Arians has said that he won't rest anybody and that the team will be playing to get the win (and possibly the No. 2 seed in the NFC) but does that mean Brady will do enough to see those records fall?
If Arians is willing to pass the ball enough to even approach that number, Brady should easily hit the Over on his passing yards total which is set at 291.5. But we're not so sure that will happen. Keep in mind that despite airing the ball out at an absurd rate, Brady has thrown for fewer than 280 yards in seven of his last 15 games, including a 232-yard performance against the Panthers just two weeks ago when he attempted a season-low 30 passes.
Carolina is banged up at cornerback but with Chris Godwin done for the season with a torn ACL and the bizarre exodus of Antonio Brown, the Bucs don't have much at wideout after Mike Evans. Arians might want a win but he also isn't going to put his superstar quarterback in danger any more than is necessary to secure that victory.
Given that Tampa Bay has an average first-half scoring margin of +12 at home and jumped out to a big lead against the Panthers in Week 16, it seems likely that it will start strong in this one. After that, don't be surprised if Brady doesn't show much interest in gunning for 500 yards and instead hands the ball off to Ke'Shawn Vaughn or even lets Blaine Gabbert take a snap or two.
