The "change in scenery" angle is often overvalued in sports, but it worked like a charm with Baker Mayfield last season.
He set career-highs in completion rate, total yards, and touchdowns in his first year with the Buccaneers, and that performance carried into Week 1 of this season.
I'm backing the Bucs in my Week 2 same-game parlay along with some Mayfield-related props, while my conventional three-leg parlay for Sunday is capped off with the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football.
Here are my best NFL picks for Sunday, September 15.
Week 2 NFL parlay picks
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Jets vs. 
Titans Under 41.5
Buccaneers +7.5
Rams +1.5
Texans -5.5 (alt. spread)Best Week 2 parlay pick
Jets vs. Titans Under 41.5
Rams +1.5
Texans -5.5 (alt. spread)
The good news for the New York Jets in Week 1 was Aaron Rodgers managed to play the whole game. The bad news was his offense was rendered largely ineffective by the San Francisco 49ers in a 32-19 defeat.
Rodgers was held to 167 passing yards while Breece Hall scampered for just 55 yards on the ground. I'm not saying the Tennessee Titans' defense is on the same level as that of the defending NFC champions, but they did hold the Chicago Bears to zero offensive touchdowns in Week 1.
Meanwhile, the Jets boast one of the most talented stop units in football and should frustrate Will Levis & Co. throughout this tilt. Levis looked lost at times vs. the Bears last Sunday, accumulating a paltry 127 passing yards along with two interceptions.
Next up, I'll back the Los Angeles Rams as surprising underdogs when they visit the Arizona Cardinals, a team they've owned in recent years.
Since Sean McVay took the reins with the Rams, L.A. has won 14 of 16 meetings with this NFC West rival. There were few close shaves for the Rams in those tilts, with L.A. rewarding their backers in 13 of those 14 SU victories.
The Rams may have taken a step backward in terms of defensive personnel, but they played a Lions team many consider a major Super Bowl odds threat tough. The Cardinals are several steps down in class level.
Finally, I'll go back to the well with the Houston Texans, a team that cost me a parlay by a half-point last week. I'll buy a point here and get below one of the underrated key numbers of six.
Caleb Williams could be any kind, but Week 1 demonstrated there will be growing pains in Chicago. The Texans — 2024 playoff participants — are simply better than the Titans, and the Bears don't look ready for the added pressure of prime time.
Houston's lowlights in Week 1's narrow win over the Colts were allowing CJ Stroud to be pressured too often and getting beaten over the top by the opposing QBs, neither of which were isolated issues when looking at least year's stats.
Fortunately for the Texans, the Bears had one of the weakest pass rushes in football a year ago. Also, I'll need to see some proof Williams can find his targets downfield at the NFL level before backing Chicago.
Best Week 2 SGP
Buccaneers +7.5
Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Mike Evans Over 64.5 receiving yards
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost to the Detroit Lions by just eight points in last year's Divisional Round, and that game was tied at 17-17 going into the fourth quarter. A missed two-point conversion was the only thing that kept the Bucs from covering this spread in that contest.
Baker Mayfield carved up the Lions' defense to the tune of 349 yards and three touchdowns on 26-for-41 passing.
Detroit made offseason moves to address what was a porous pass defense (sixth-worst in the NFL at 247.4 yards allowed per game), but they seemed to have little impact in Week 1 as the Rams put up 304 yards through the air last Sunday en route to 20 points in an overtime loss. The Lions were sixth-worst in the NFL in pass defense last year at 247.4 yards allowed per game.
On the other side of the ball, the Bucs allowed the seventh-fewest points per game (19.1) in 2023 and got off to a good start this year by limiting the Commanders to 13 points through the first 58 1/2 minutes of their Week 1 affair.
Detroit's offense looked far from impressive at home in Week 1 vs. a shorthanded Los Angeles stop unit, and this will be a step up in intensity. I could see the Buccaneers winning this game but will gladly snare the touchdown-plus with them to kick off this SGP.
Mayfield to exceed 1.5 passing touchdowns is not an onerous addition at about -130, so I'll head there for Leg 2. The Oklahoma product has tossed multiple TD passes in eight of his last 10 games overall, and the Lions allowed the sixth-most passing TDs in 2023.
Finally, I'll add Mike Evans to go for at least 65 receiving yards. You'll find this market at about 67.5 yards if betting it outright, but I'll take advantage of this lower line via MGM's SGP builder.
Evans reached the 65-yard plateau 10 times over 17 games last year, including a 147-yard performance vs. this Detroit defense in the postseason.
Not intended for use in MA.
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